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MaineJay
Rank: F5 Superstorm
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25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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MaineJay

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21 Apr 2018
Looks like a prolonged event involving a slow moving long wave, with several shortwaves occasionally energizing it. The blocking continues, and even puts me in the "warm" sector largely. tongue.gif the downside is the rain.

I have no delusions about the ire I may incur. smile.gif enjoy.


WPC extended
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 AM EDT SAT APR 21 2018

VALID 12Z TUE APR 24 2018 - 12Z SAT APR 28 2018

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

TROUGHING WILL BE REINFORCED IN THE EASTERN THIRD/HALF OF THE
LOWER 48 NEXT WEEK WHILE RIDGING OVER THE WEST HOLDS AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE COAST.
THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LOW AND NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OUT OF CANADA BUT SEEM TO BE
HONING IN ON A BETTER CONSENSUS COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THIS WOULD
KEEP THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE WEEK UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND WHEN IT MAY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CA/OR
BORDER. A BLEND OF THE RECENT GUIDANCE OFFERED A GOOD STARTING
POINT DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH/TIMING OF A FEW OF THE
EASTERN SYSTEMS IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN. COULD NOT
NECESSARILY RULE ANY ONE RUN OUT GIVEN THE MULTI-DAY SHUFFLINGS.


...WEATHER/THREATS HIGHLIGHTS...

EXITING LEAD UPPER/SFC LOW WILL SPREAD MODEST RAINS THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER AMOUNTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND AS THE LOW RIDES UP I-95 INTO MAINE ON THURSDAY.
TRAILING SYSTEMS WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN OR MAYBE SOME WET SNOW
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AS WEAKER SHORTWAVES SLIP SOUTHEASTWARD IN
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF MAINE.


IN THE WEST, UPPER RIDGING WILL ENSURE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES (+10 TO +20F ABOVE CLIMO) WITH SOME RECORDS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD OFFSHORE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND (OR AT LEAST
LATE FRIDAY) WITH THE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS MOSTLY INTO COASTAL
OREGON BUT ALSO INTO THE SIERRAS AS THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY
COME ASHORE.

ASSOCIATED WPC MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF 500 MB HEIGHTS...SURFACE
SYSTEMS...WEATHER GRIDS...QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS
(QPF)...AND WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK SNOW/SLEET PROBABILITIES CAN BE
FOUND AT...

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/..._medr.php?day=4


FRACASSO

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd


GYX

QUOTE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Model guidance remains consistent with ridging to the N of upper
low/trof forecast to slowly churn across the Srn CONUS thru
early next week. The gradual warm up will continue into early
next week...with some readings in the 60s likely Mon and Tue.
Multi-model consensus is a little on the cool side...mainly
because the recent colder than normal wx is dragging the bias
correction away from warm temps. I have added a little more MOS
guidance to the blend to try and offset that effect thru Tue.

By late Tue thru Wed model guidance brings in the next round of
precip. That slow moving upper low lift NEwd...and with PWAT
values forecast to be above normal for this time of year we
should see a pretty widespread rainfall. While it will not be a
warm rain...it will be mild enough for mainly rain except for
the highest elevations of the forecast area
. The combination of
gradual snow melt in the milder temps plus rainfall will allow
river flows to increase thru next week. Looking at ensemble flow
guidance...that is enough to push a handful of headwater gauge
locations above flood stage late in the week. So it will be
something to keep an eye on.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


ECMWF

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...42100&fh=96

UKie

Attached Image


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http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-p...test&hh=144
18 Feb 2018
So I'm not sure how great a winter threat this is, but in looking through the EPS members, there is support for some type of system moving through. I believe it's separate from the previous thread from Poc and the subsequent one from UTS. At least I hope so. smile.gif

Everything from a western great Lakes track, to something sliding off the SE coast, and everything in between is represented.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro

EPS with spread

Hour 192
Attached Image

216
Attached Image


GEFS spaghetti shows the sizeable spread in the northern stream
Attached Image


I know it's a low probability event, but you never know at this lead time.
15 Feb 2018
Feel free to revel in the warmth, or complain about it. laugh.gif it's all good.

EPS
Attached Image


Decent warm up, likely means posted roads, and maple sap running.

GYX

QUOTE
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High Impact Weather Potential:

* Potential for light snow accumulations Saturday Night through
early Sunday.

* Significant warm up becoming increasingly likely next week
with potential hydro concerns.


Pattern: Persistent pattern of the past few days continues early
this morning with vortex centered just north of Hudson Bay...another
over eastern Asia....with ridging just off the west coast of North
America with early morning water vapor imagery revealing a
shortwave helping re-establish troughing over the southwestern
United States. Deterministic/ensemble guidance remains in strong
agreement in maintaining this pattern through the coming
weekend. Beyond this...there continues to be strong signals for
a significant pattern change with Pacific ridge retrograding
west and building...which allows significant troughing to take
shape over western North America with a weakening/eastward shift
of the Hudson Bay vortex. This favors building heights over
eastern North America with a Bermuda high setup directing deep
southwesterly flow along the eastern seaboard. The flow remains
progressive through this period with no downstream blocking...
so even this warm up does not look to remain with us for very
long
. Primary forecast concerns through the long term forecast
period include potential weekend snowfall...then the focus turns
to deep moisture plume along the eastern flank of developing
longwave trough and how much precipitation potential we have
from this feature.

The Details...


Monday-Monday Night: High pressure will be centered just east of the
region to begin Monday with warm advection and top down saturation
rapidly setting in as the day progresses. Thus...expect an increase
in clouds with rain showers approaching from the south and west
towards evening. T9s moving to around the freezing mark should allow
40s for areas outside of the mountains. Showery precipitation looks
to arrive Monday night and will likely take the form of rain for
most location...with the potential for a mix at the onset over the
mountains although even here temperatures aloft warm rapidly so the
threat will more likely be from pockets of trapped low level
cold air potentially leading to some freezing rain. Mild night
with a non- diurnal trend likely /temps slowly rising through
the night/ with 30s and potentially some 40s south.

Tuesday - Wednesday: Substantial run to run and model to model
differences develop by this time range with the EC/GFS/GGEM /and
their ensemble counterparts/ all favoring a western trough...
but very different evolutions along the eastern flank of this
feature...reducing confidence. There is good confidence in
temperatures moving well above normal for Tuesday and likely
Wednesday with T8s at or above 10C
. PWATs also increase
dramatically as the Gulf of Mexico opens up. Looking at both the
EC EPS and the GEFS...there is certainly enough overlap in
guidance thinking to keep chance PoPs through this period...with
the greatest precipitation potential favored west as current
indications suggest that the best heavy rainfall signal will be
west of our region. Certainly something to keep an eye on for
potential hydro concerns. Otherwise...story will be
temperatures...with good agreement that T9s move to near or
above 10C Tuesday...with some potential to be warmer still on
Wednesday. While this suggests the potential for 60s...have to
be careful with precipitation potential as well as decreasing
confidence... particularly on Wednesday. Still...boosting highs
for both days with 40s north and 50s south is a good starting
point that can be adjusted as confidence grows.
23 Dec 2017
I thought it might make sense to start a thread to document the upcoming cold. Not sure of the end date, suggestions welcomed.

EPS

Attached Image


Also, since there might be some waves that move along the edge of the cold, feel free to discuss potential for snow if there's no thread for it. smile.gif

GYX
QUOTE
Beyond Christmas we begin to see signs of very cold air poised
to drop into the area. The core of a very cold Arctic low will
be sitting over south central Canada and southwest Hudson Bay,
and the departure of the Christmas storm will begin to draw this
cold air southeastward into northern New England. With the fresh
coat of snow across New England, expect this cold air mass to
encounter little resistance in heading this way, reaching our
area with full potency. The leading edge of this cold air
arrives on Tuesday, with a stiff west northwest wind
accompanying it. 925MB temperatures of -20C to -30C suggest
surface temperatures falling below zero Tuesday evening in the
northern and eastern part of the area in spite of the low level
mixing. Very dry air mass, fresh snow pack, and some of the
longest nights of the year should allow nighttime temperatures
to fall below zero area wide, and to -20F or colder in the
northern valleys Wednesday night and Thursday night
. Daytime
highs may not rise above zero in northern and eastern areas for
a few days!
It is likely that a wind chill headline of some sort
(Advisory or Warning) will be needed for part of the area when
this cold air arrives, most likely in the Tuesday to Wednesday
time period when winds are still fairly strong.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
12 Nov 2017
I'm 99.9% sure this doesn't have a thread. smile.gif

I figured since the was a "gap" between UTS' and Poc's threads, why not fill it with another storm threat? laugh.gif Well, actually the UKie told me to do it.

UKie
Attached Image
http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php


Wave spacing is very tight, the UTS "storm" is barely off the coast, and more energy tries to amplify.

EPS H5 with spread.
Attached Image
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GEFS H5 with spread
Attached Image
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/exp...MO=&PERIOD=


Last 5 ECMWF runs. Last run is valid at hour 114, this is when models start to become a bit more reliable. Unfortunately, there appears to be subtle phasing details which have significant sensible weather effects. So I'll be watching for the potential for stream interactions. Or even a brief cutting off.

It's definitely trended deeper over these 5 cycles.

Attached Image
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php
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