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> April 13-15 Mid Atl/NE Warn Surge, Our first 70s since October?!
bingobobbo
post Apr 9 2018, 01:27 PM
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I wanted to open up a thread for our much anticipated warmup. I am excited about it, and I am sure many of you are . My first call is that it reaches 68 here on Friday and 75 on Saturday. 80s could reach Lehigh Valley, I predict.


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Fire/Rescue
post Apr 9 2018, 01:31 PM
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Yea man I'm sooo ready!

Looking like mid 70's over the weekend for the Baltimore region for which many areas will hit 80 if not the low 80's
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phillyfan
post Apr 9 2018, 01:39 PM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Apr 9 2018, 02:27 PM) *
I wanted to open up a thread for our much anticipated warmup. I am excited about it, and I am sure many of you are . My first call is that it reaches 68 here on Friday and 75 on Saturday. 80s could reach Lehigh Valley, I predict.

Was 82 here on February 21st. Was only for a day though. 80s end of this week is too much too quick though....


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PlanetMaster
post Apr 9 2018, 04:03 PM
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Have us down for mid 60's this weekend and then cooling off Sunday, will be a nice taste which has been much anticipated. Just happy the coastal snow threat is over for the season, you guys inland still have shots but for the most part I think we are finally turning the corner.


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bingobobbo
post Apr 9 2018, 04:52 PM
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Well, I just read the latest NWS, and now they seem to think that the warm front could get hung up near us. We could be looking at an overcast fifty-niner scenario--or a sunny 75-degree day. Of course, we are right on the borderline--just as we were many times with snowstorms all winter. Whenever they mention "sharp temperature gradient," it is usually a red flag. I wish everyone luck in getting the warmth.


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PlanetMaster
post Apr 9 2018, 06:18 PM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Apr 9 2018, 05:52 PM) *
Well, I just read the latest NWS, and now they seem to think that the warm front could get hung up near us. We could be looking at an overcast fifty-niner scenario--or a sunny 75-degree day. Of course, we are right on the borderline--just as we were many times with snowstorms all winter. Whenever they mention "sharp temperature gradient," it is usually a red flag. I wish everyone luck in getting the warmth.

Cold air doing its darnedest to hang on so getting those warm fronts to go far north will be tough at first but I think after the 20th we should see a gradual warm up and some above average temps for a change. Although there are still glancing cold shots in the wings for the remainder of the month. Thankfully any snow will be inland over high terrain for the most part, think the coastal plain is good atp.

This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: Apr 9 2018, 06:18 PM


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Solstice
post Apr 9 2018, 08:03 PM
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Grr... keep this stuff away! I will take the current weather over this mess anyday.
I don't want the eye-itching to start. Or the snow to end.


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Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Fire/Rescue
post Apr 10 2018, 07:47 AM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Apr 9 2018, 09:03 PM) *
Grr... keep this stuff away! I will take the current weather over this mess anyday.
I don't want the eye-itching to start. Or the snow to end.

Yea man, unfortunately however it's a coming and will more then likely do so very drastically.....
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geeter1
post Apr 10 2018, 08:41 AM
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Breaking out the Bermuda Shorts on Friday cool.gif cool.gif
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LUCC
post Apr 10 2018, 12:19 PM
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66 Thursday, 78 Friday and 80 Saturday! FINALLY!!!!!!!!!


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Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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gulfofslides
post Apr 10 2018, 05:32 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Apr 10 2018, 12:19 PM) *
66 Thursday, 78 Friday and 80 Saturday! FINALLY!!!!!!!!!

30 here on Sunday sad.gif
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bingobobbo
post Apr 10 2018, 06:08 PM
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I just realized that I spelled "warm" "warn," and I was unable to correct it. I will be good and ready for this--we have had only two above normal days in the last 35.


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bingobobbo
post Apr 10 2018, 09:24 PM
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This "warm" surge may give us one day of warm air on Friday--NWS has taken away our 70-degree Saturday--it is looking like a 59-degree rain for us on Saturday and a 49-degree rain on Sunday. NEPA might still get some 70s on Saturday, but it appears that we will not only be on the wrong side of the gradient but also overcast and chilly. If you like umbrella weather, you will love this weekend. The "warm" surge is a "warn" surge after all--they are warning us of a chilly Saturday--barely average.


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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 11 2018, 09:52 AM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Apr 10 2018, 10:24 PM) *
This "warm" surge may give us one day of warm air on Friday--NWS has taken away our 70-degree Saturday--it is looking like a 59-degree rain for us on Saturday and a 49-degree rain on Sunday. NEPA might still get some 70s on Saturday, but it appears that we will not only be on the wrong side of the gradient but also overcast and chilly. If you like umbrella weather, you will love this weekend. The "warm" surge is a "warn" surge after all--they are warning us of a chilly Saturday--barely average.

I think you are putting too much confidence in the currently forecasted frontal placement. The temperature gradient associated with this front will be very strong and only locations north of the front will content with precipitation.

3-4 days out a 100 mile shift in the frontal position is possible if not likely and that will make a world of difference in this situation. For better or worse.

Moral of the story is very few locations will be around 50F with rain Saturday afternoon. That forecast is based on uncertainty in the frontal position ... It's either going to be warm (~70F) with no precip or cold (~40F) with showers.


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telejunkie
post Apr 11 2018, 02:31 PM
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So uh...is this the right spot to discuss the fzr/sleet threat during this timeframe? dry.gif


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Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
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'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
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Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
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yamvmax
post Apr 11 2018, 02:39 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Apr 11 2018, 02:31 PM) *
So uh...is this the right spot to discuss the fzr/sleet threat during this timeframe? dry.gif

I was wondering when someone was gonna bring this up. Could be a nasty ice storm for some.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 11 2018, 03:18 PM
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Oh yea cant wait for when that front comes through gonna have some nice rumblers with it probably wind threat for now although it does seem to have a bit of cold air to work with so maybe have some hailers out there too in some of the stronger. Nice snowstorm across Midwest and yea sorry those in valley locations in the north country High pressure that has been showing up time and time again to push our systems down this way for the past month looks to be retreating more into Canada which opens up the warm gates for us. Cant wait to deal with 70's and 80's again. Should help really boost departures with moisture increase and low level clouds in warm sector keeping overnight temps warm! looks as though long range has taken the idea of the blocking down a notch which is cool with me so seems like average will be the way to go from about mid-month on maybe you guys up there have the swing of temps take place.

Really want to see if that ice threat is real or turns into a sleet fest. Careful either way.


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bingobobbo
post Apr 11 2018, 04:31 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Apr 11 2018, 03:31 PM) *
So uh...is this the right spot to discuss the fzr/sleet threat during this timeframe? dry.gif



It is a "warn" surge--as my less-than-stellar spelling attests. LOL. As a result, the frozen precipitation threat is more than welcome because there is a fine line between winter and summer (warn/warm).

This post has been edited by bingobobbo: Apr 11 2018, 11:12 PM


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NorEaster07
post Apr 11 2018, 04:41 PM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Apr 9 2018, 01:27 PM) *
I wanted to open up a thread for our much anticipated warmup. I am excited about it, and I am sure many of you are . My first call is that it reaches 68 here on Friday and 75 on Saturday. 80s could reach Lehigh Valley, I predict.


Oh snap. Didn't see this thread. Sorry. Reposting these here then. Probably 95% of us will be feeling relief with this warm up.



Later this week. A non familiar sight in the East. A ridge!

Attached Image


Friday.

Attached Image


Saturday. Someone is knocking on the backdoor. Some areas might go from 70s to max of 40s 48hrs later.

Attached Image


Forecast Max for Friday on left. Sunday on right.

Attached Image

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NorEaster07
post Apr 11 2018, 04:47 PM
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QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
438 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

A much warmer regime is in store for Friday into Saturday as a
strong upper ridge dominates over the western Atlantic and eastern
seaboard.
This ridge is in response to a deep cutoff trough across
the western half of the country. The trough will approach on Sunday
and become negatively tilted Sunday night into early next week as it
slowly lifts over the northeast.

A frontal boundary will be situated near the region Friday morning,
but quickly lifts north through the day and becomes nearly
stationary. The GFS and ECMWF indicate some very light QPF, but feel
this may be overdone and thus have a dry forecast as lift is meager
and the atmosphere is dry. A quick warm up is expected Friday as
temperatures soar into the 60s and 70s with some locations near the
NYC metro and urban NE NJ potentially approaching 80 degrees
.


Sea breezes will keep Long Island and southeastern Connecticut cooler,
with temperatures likely falling a bit in the afternoon. A similar
temperature spread is expected for Saturday with the boundary still
to our north.
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