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NorEaster07
Posted on: Today, 05:56 AM


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From: SW Coastal CT
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8 Day forecast Coastal CT on left, Inland CT on right.. 70s and Sun next several days

#AugTober
#SepTober
#OctToaster

Next chance of rain is Tue-Wed next week with that long awaited front

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Next 5 days from NWS. 40s/50s for lows. 70s for Highs with Sun Sun Sun.

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249728 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 18 2017, 03:02 PM) *
That WV pic is amazing. Our colors blow here. It's green or brown .. hoping we're just behind and we see some real color soon.. it will be sad to just go from green to brown and be done.


I hear ya. Same here with the dull/browness. Next weeks front/storm may thin us out more where theres heavy wind and rain.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249699 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


We're 2-3 weeks behind now..

Check out these comparisons!

Green in Massachusetts at 300' vs colors in North Carolina at 5000'+

Source:

Source:


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How about this? West Virginia yesterday at about 4000' vs Connecticut at 1100'. blink.gif

Source:

Source:


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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249694 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 09:22 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(telejunkie @ Oct 17 2017, 10:15 PM) *
You're welcome warministas...I purchased a ski pass this winter. I've only bought two season passes before in my life...'11-'12 and '15-'16 laugh.gif (true story though)


Great... between your jet ski and my new all wheel drive truck its time to sharpen the lawn mower blade and keep the shorts around now. I saw gueese flying north today. Guess they saw our stuff
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249663 · Replies: · Views: 179,025

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 05:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


Interesting call from Scott from early October.

https://twitter.com/ScottSabolFOX8/status/915873899916746752

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249655 · Replies: · Views: 66,367

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 05:45 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 16 2017, 12:11 AM) *
30-day average SOI is now above 10. SSTs may be weak, but the atmospheric portion of the Nina is in full force.



I believe last time we were 10+ was September 2016? Confirm?


Love watching the changes though.. Just 3 months ago while SSTs were pointing to Nina, atmosphere was saying Nino

https://twitter.com/B_Carp01/status/881553279783751680

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249654 · Replies: · Views: 66,367

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 05:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(stxprowl @ Oct 16 2017, 07:29 PM) *
Had to take some before shots since the next time these live streams show grass might be 6-7 months.


Nice thinking! Good to get a perspective on how deep the snow is too.


Mt Rainier in Washington webcams is one I always look at. About 5000' elevation here

https://www.nps.gov/mora/learn/photosmultim...#CP_JUMP_636381


These 2 are my favorites views.

East View

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Visitors Center

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249651 · Replies: · Views: 1,856

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 02:13 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864



Now, do we have to wait 7 days till the next one? I'm so greedy, I want more now! lol tongue.gif

This week... Enjoy Spring 60s/70s..

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Next week...Changes

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GFS12z 850mb anomalies next Wednesday. Canadian deeper with the cold. Euro is more west more with the axis. All agreeing on the trough..

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249647 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 11:40 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


My first frost here this morning... It was everywhere. Grass and roofs of homes and cars all over the area as well.

My low was 38.2°. Clear skies and no wind..


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No Frost under the canopy of Trees And yeah... STILL GREEN! lol

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You can see where the heat loss from inside is. Areas without frost means heat was escaping from the Attic/Top floor.

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Close up of grass...

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Steam from pond.

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249644 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 16 2017, 03:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 16 2017, 04:08 PM) *
Euro look at the situation for the "pattern change" trough
First trough makes in roads - hard to say for certain but looks like elevated region of the interior could see a strip of white or some sort of frozen precip.


Looking at AccuPro animator Euro12z is too warm even for 5k. Aside the thickness not supporting it looks like 850s arent below freezing for Wed 2am-2pm time frame. The freezing line is in Canada still. Only northern Ohio has negative 850s but they are dry by that time.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249618 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 16 2017, 01:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 16 2017, 12:45 PM) *
Well, this look is certainly interesting.


Looks like this front next week on Monday October 23rd coming across kicks off the entire pattern change..... This moves to the Eastern Seaboard Tuesday, and then........

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This is for Wednesday as the Jet digs down to the southeast while the hot dry ridge builds in the West

This trough mid next week lifts back out but watch what happens...

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That weekend another one dives down deep.
Edit:: "Maybe" (Hour 300 here!)

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I'd like the NAO to be more negative but that huge positive PNA might be all it takes.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ref...n/forecast.html


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We'll see if we can reverse things where the warm ups are short lived with more deeper cold blasts.
Maybe Michigan & parts of GL & OV going from Summer to Winter skipping Fall?

It's been over 5 weeks now without worthy noted lingering troughs in the East.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249613 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 15 2017, 07:56 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


OctToaster continues. 65° at 8am this morning. Lol. Mist, drizzle and fog.

Good old Henry. I miss his videos actually even though they weren't like Bernies.

https://twitter.com/HenryMargusity/status/919542271833464832

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249572 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 14 2017, 03:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


12z's for 10-12 days out..


Canadian. Dig Baby Dig. Way too far south IMO for this time of year. Note the Greenland block as well.

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GFS on the big dig as well but not as far south. Greenland Ridge further east

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Euro is like what dig? Only New England gets it and there's no Greenland blocking ridge

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249548 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 14 2017, 12:56 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 14 2017, 08:08 AM) *
Perhaps you get your wish, Nor. Starting to nudge closer to "not so unbelievable" range


We'll see. Trend is our friend for now, would like to see that consistency within 8 days from date shown so still got some time. Too many times we've seen opposite things shown then flip back to the friend pattern even 8-10 days out.

On the current warm pattern note.........

Was in Yorktown Heights, NY this morning. Warm 65° (normal is 40s)
Elevation 700'


An area little more prone to November snow than points south.




Crazy. Like it's still August. blink.gif Mostly still green around.




Should we start worrying about another Snowtober type disaster? More heat coming after this Tuesday with 60s and 70s, don't see any real cold blasts till towards end of month.




Even the hills in backdrop didn't have much color.



Snow Stats::

Nov 1-15 period only.

Bridgeport at CT coast had accumulating snow 9 times. (twice over 5") and of course the suburbs and north of 95 had more snow accumulating with those storms.

Hartford 20 times with measurable snow. 6 times with 4" or more.


White Plains:, NYC Suburb: 6 times since 1950


Worcester, MA: A lot of times with measurable snow. 6 times with over 6". Twice over 10"!

Boston: 22 times with measureable snow but only 3 times with more than 3" since 1800s. Must be water influence there
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249541 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 14 2017, 06:25 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
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7amEST temps. Snowing in Idaho & Wyoming. I see Teens and 20s on the map. Teens in October I never experienced let alone Mid October.. I'd like to get below 45° for now. lol

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A look at the Upper heights and temps at 5000'. Nice dip in the West...AGAIN

Summer morning here in 60s..AGAIN

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249526 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 13 2017, 02:34 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
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Tomorrow... Warm...

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Sunday... Summer Like? Aren't we still in Summer? I don't get it.

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but wait...................there's more........ Next weekend

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249502 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 05:48 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
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QUOTE(grace @ Oct 12 2017, 06:38 PM) *


Wow, just checked that this morning and update wasnt there. I was like "any day now". Was any hour. Lol. Thanks. Looked like it was heading for negatives
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249480 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 03:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
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BTW -- Low 60s and sunny. September is here! Oh wait... I mean... Nice to be just slightly above normal again. smh



This was the 2pm map. Very cool Satellite view. Love the sunny skies west of the Blue Ridge and the sharp cut offs. Almost looks like a big storm around.

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249475 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 03:56 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 12 2017, 12:56 PM) *
Eastern US probably should love seeing signals such as this - if only it would hold and persist. Well established W Ridge with a slightly positive tilt at crest, Rex block downstream, large trough in East.

A tall order to be sure, but somewhat encouraging to wintery weather lovers.


So close, yet so far (hr 336). I'll take my 1-2 day breaks meanwhile. :-(

GFS12z for Binghamton: Normal 850mb temps is about 5C there.

You can see why this weekend will be very warm.

You can see why Monday and Tuesday will be awesome! (For me anyway) Temps at 5000' drop to near or below freezing!

Then we warm back up to well above normal for next weekend..

Then GFS is still trolling for end of month..

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249474 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 03:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Oct 12 2017, 03:15 PM) *
Thanks for posting the discussion! We've been calling for a thread title change since mid-September, but the thread starter is nowhere to be found. Maybe a moderator will stop by at some point.

The three most recent ONI values are +0.4, +0.1, and -0.1 so it's headed in the right direction for a Nina event. Based on recent trends and historic analogs, I wouldn't be surprised to see the next (August-October) ONI value near or below the -0.5C threshold.


Send a mod a message. I'm too lazy.

Actually... Why haven't we just started a new La Nina Thread instead? Even though this thread was started Jan 30 this year, by March-April we were realizing the Nino failing. Was cool to skim through just now actually.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249473 · Replies: · Views: 66,367

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 12:04 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
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New Discussion Posted. BTW -- Thread Title Change?

They are saying last month it was still Neutral but edging close to Nina conditions.


Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

QUOTE
Synopsis: La Niņa conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18.


During September, ENSO-neutral conditions were reflected in near-to-below average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The weekly Niņo indices were volatile during the month, with negative values increasing to near zero during the past week in the Niņo-4, Niņo-3.4, and Niņo-3 regions (Fig. 2). In contrast, sub-surface temperature anomalies were increasingly negative during September (Fig. 3), reflecting the shallow depth of the thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Also, convection was suppressed near the International Date Line and enhanced near Indonesia (Fig. 5).

Over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, low-level trade winds were anomalously easterly and upper-level winds were anomalously westerly. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remains consistent with ENSO-neutral, although edging closer to La Niņa conditions.

For the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18, a weak La Niņa is favored in the dynamical model averages of the IRI/CPC plume (Fig. 6) and North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) (Fig. 7). Several models indicate a period of near-average Niņo-3.4 values in the upcoming weeks, but then predict reinvigorated growth of negative SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These forecasts are supported by the ongoing easterly wind anomalies across portions of the Pacific Ocean and the reservoir of below-average subsurface temperatures. In summary, La Niņa conditions are favored (~55-65%) during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18


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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249466 · Replies: · Views: 66,367

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 05:58 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864



Sometimes it sneaks up on us...

Frost Advisories tonight for northern CT into MA and New England... Lets see if they expand later on today.

"PATCHY" so shouldn't be widespread frost.

Source:



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Forecast lows tomorrow morning. Southern CT is safe but didn't expect 40s to be honest. I thought it was still August.

Source:


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And then..... Sunday warmest and muggiest day of weekend. Dews in the 60s again with temps in the 70s. Might be cloudy with a front coming through later in the day

Source:


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Then.... that front comes through Sunday and we drop back to more seasonable levels. The swings of Fall.

Source:


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Here's Hartford's Forecast from NWS

Source:


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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249453 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 11 2017, 06:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Oct 11 2017, 07:36 PM) *
Impressive!!! From what I've studied, it takes a volcanic eruption at least 4 to 5 miles to impact winter and this at roughly 7 miles should suffice to at least make some minor impact. How much though and when??


Which way are the winds blowing up there. If they are east to west I doubt we'll see any affects in Alaska or North America.

Did you see this?

Scientists thought Yellowstone volcano would show signs centuries before erupting. Turns out it'll just be decades

https://nytimes.com/2017/10/10/science/yell...o-eruption.html

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249435 · Replies: · Views: 179,025

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 11 2017, 03:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


How about the Persimmon? Better than Farmers Almanac? Lol tongue.gif

This one is for DC area this year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news...-winter-in-d-c/

QUOTE
According to weather folklore, the pattern inside persimmon seeds can give you a good idea of what the upcoming winter will be like.

Weather folklore says that a spoon pattern inside persimmon seeds indicates there will be lots of snow to shovel, a knife pattern indicates the winter will be cold and a fork pattern indicates the winter will be mild, with good eating.

After three tests, I found nine spoons, five knives, and three forks found by slicing open the seeds. The spoons were more numerous in the tests and thus folklore tells us that a snowy winter is ahead




  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249427 · Replies: · Views: 179,025

NorEaster07
Posted on: Oct 11 2017, 02:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,190
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


Dr. Cohen Twitter


Couple Tid Bits from his latest write up... So much good stuff, no idea what to paste.

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climat...tic-oscillation

QUOTE
"Above normal snow cover favors a strengthened Siberian high and a weakened polar vortex/negative AO this upcoming winter with cold temperatures across the continents of the NH."

"The topic remains controversial but I believe that low Arctic sea ice favors increased severe winter weather across the mid-latitude continents of the NH."

"My, along with my colleagues and others, research has shown that extensive Siberian snow cover in the fall favors a trough across East Asia with a ridge to the west near the Urals. The atmospheric circulation pattern favors more active poleward heat flux, a weaker PV and cold temperatures across the NH. It is very early in the snow season but recent falls have been snowy across Siberia and therefore I do expect another upcoming snowy fall across Siberia. "


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249425 · Replies: · Views: 179,025

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