Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

36 Pages V  « < 34 35 36  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Feb 7-8, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
Solstice
post Feb 8 2018, 09:44 PM
Post #701




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 967
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





Here's the best GOES-16 Geocolor I could find. Quite hard to see but I think you can see the rain/snow line.
Note: Click to view full image. I know it's getting cut off by the "Moderator's Picks" image banner.



This post has been edited by Solstice: Feb 8 2018, 09:45 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
telejunkie
post Feb 8 2018, 11:42 PM
Post #702




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,492
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 8 2018, 07:27 PM) *
I'm not even using the WRF maps as they were way off.

My conclusion, based on these and the ones Solstice put in is that the Euro and Canadian models did the best. GFS and Icon and then NAM.

Still not sure if Kuchera vs 10:1 made a difference - yes in a successful way in some places, no in others. Look back at the NAM Kuchera to see what I mean.

Huh...here I would say Euro was on the bottom, right above Icon, Canadian, then GFS and NAM. Euro was way too thin striped and way too far SE. The precip shield was much broader than Euro depicted...check out Erie,PA through NNE. ‘Mericans bested the foreigns with this one imho


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
rtcemc
post Feb 9 2018, 12:24 AM
Post #703




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,263
Joined: 26-December 08
From: New Tripoli, PA
Member No.: 16,666





QUOTE(telejunkie @ Feb 8 2018, 11:42 PM) *
Huh...here I would say Euro was on the bottom, right above Icon, Canadian, then GFS and NAM. Euro was way too thin striped and way too far SE. The precip shield was much broader than Euro depicted...check out Erie,PA through NNE. ‘Mericans bested the foreigns with this one imho

I think his analysis is really good overall, but again it is a time stamp - model call at a certain time. so difficult to get perfect, unless you do what I tried and that is really time consuming. For eg, if a model was really clueless, and started to come around and then was good at Tues time stamp it will look good. Also think NAM should e rated higher. His analysis prompting all this discussion, which is great. I read on another forum, and really starting to agree with concept. When NAM starts going warmer, and stays on that track, it needs to be taken seriously. Did with this storm, and did with one late big one last year that I didn't believe. The forum I was on stated exactly that, when NAM starts going there and keeps going, it should send off alarms. Not saying it is great and has had some epic fails, but just like NAV has a noted bias that we use, when NAM does its north/warmer thing as we near - we need to acknowledge it. I doubted it Tues nite again, and it was correct.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 9 2018, 06:45 AM
Post #704




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,937
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(telejunkie @ Feb 8 2018, 11:42 PM) *
Huh...here I would say Euro was on the bottom, right above Icon, Canadian, then GFS and NAM. Euro was way too thin striped and way too far SE. The precip shield was much broader than Euro depicted...check out Erie,PA through NNE. ‘Mericans bested the foreigns with this one imho


I agree. I also am now seeing value in the 3k Nam and it's frozen precip output and low track. Not snowmaps, just frozen precip, if you know your area and the setup it gives a decent idea of how frozen stuff will fall from the sky.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 9 2018, 08:04 AM
Post #705




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 7,258
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





All the discussion of which model was best goes to show that a single model solution is never "the best" across a broad region. Also, different users look for different cues in models, another way to put it is beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

However, I will say that if users only rely on snow maps, models will always be garbage rolleyes.gif


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Feb 9 2018, 08:38 AM
Post #706




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,774
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 9 2018, 08:04 AM) *
All the discussion of which model was best goes to show that a single model solution is never "the best" across a broad region. Also, different users look for different cues in models, another way to put it is beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

However, I will say that if users only rely on snow maps, models will always be garbage rolleyes.gif

All snowmaps are pretty cool.gif


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8°
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2°
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77°
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
rtcemc
post Feb 9 2018, 09:06 AM
Post #707




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,263
Joined: 26-December 08
From: New Tripoli, PA
Member No.: 16,666





QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 9 2018, 06:45 AM) *
I agree. I also am now seeing value in the 3k Nam and it's frozen precip output and low track. Not snowmaps, just frozen precip, if you know your area and the setup it gives a decent idea of how frozen stuff will fall from the sky.

This may cheer you up. Just read that the Phillies are packing up to leave for spring training. Always hump time for moi. Not that I am a big baseball fan, but starting to hear about spring training means the end is in sight. Of course, all those reports from down there just p'es me off laugh.gif
Sadly, I should open a super long range thread for March 7-13 though. Heading to Delray Beach with clubs in hand, hearing there will be blocking, and almost every year that I make trip south a late storm comes. I started that ugly travel trends years ago. And we know what March 13 signifies. Doubt Mod Man will allow me to open thread based on travel trends though unsure.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 9 2018, 09:10 AM
Post #708




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,937
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 9 2018, 09:06 AM) *
This may cheer you up. Just read that the Phillies are packing up to leave for spring training. Always hump time for moi. Not that I am a big baseball fan, but starting to hear about spring training means the end is in sight. Of course, all those reports from down there just p'es me off laugh.gif


My dad lives in Ft Myers and has been sending me pictures this week. Makes me sick to my stomach.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Feb 9 2018, 10:39 AM
Post #709




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,449
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 9 2018, 08:04 AM) *
All the discussion of which model was best goes to show that a single model solution is never "the best" across a broad region. Also, different users look for different cues in models, another way to put it is beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

However, I will say that if users only rely on snow maps, models will always be garbage rolleyes.gif

Well said pal wink.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SnowOnSnow
post Feb 10 2018, 03:32 AM
Post #710




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 408
Joined: 24-February 08
From: South Venice, Florida
Member No.: 13,953





QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 9 2018, 09:10 AM) *
My dad lives in Ft Myers and has been sending me pictures this week. Makes me sick to my stomach.


Lived 31 years in the Lehigh Valley but moved to Venice south of Sarasota in April and I will verify your dads pictures as it has been in the low 80's this week and is forecast all of next week also. Went to the beach Tuesday. Gulf temp is almost 70.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

36 Pages V  « < 34 35 36
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 25th June 2018 - 03:02 AM