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> 2017 Tropical discussion thread, Post forecasts and ideas/thoughts for this upcoming season
so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 23 2017, 02:26 AM
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Hey all now this is just as stated a discussion thread for each individual threat we will open up a thread for said tropical system. Until this occurs though this can be a thread to post information leading up into the season as well as thoughts on the impending season across the Atlantic and GOM region, can include Caribbean as well.

Hurricane season normally will not start until June 1st but there have been occurrences over the past decade where we have gone ahead of schedule from this date. This does not necessarily mean this will invoke an active season.

Here is a site to monitor the SAL (saharan air layer):
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salm...litEW&time=

My concern for this year as has been the case over the last couple is the positioning of the ridging across the western Atlantic. We have seen quite the ridging episode occur across much of the eastern seaboard for the past 2 years. Normally during an el nino event, such as last year and we will see about this year, the Atlantic tends to have lower numbers for hurricanes, storms, and landfalling chances due to increased shear not allowing for a stable growth region. Well we are currently warmer than average across much of the Atlantic except in a region around the bahamas stretching out into the central Atlantic not sure how this will play out in say 2 months when things may start to heat up but surely will play a role, but there have been occurrences where we start off cold to warm up rather nicely across this region. The GOM has been warm since last year with relatively untapped waters across that region last year this may be a hot bed for storms to really intensify.

At this point all speculation but something to look forward to as we enter the season.


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PoconoSnow
post Apr 23 2017, 10:26 AM
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Not much to add. I also think the gom may be the favored genesis region in the early season.

90d sst anomaly


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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 26 2017, 10:30 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Apr 23 2017, 11:26 AM) *
Not much to add. I also think the gom may be the favored genesis region in the early season.

90d sst anomaly

Yea completely agree and with the way the ridging pattern has setup the GOM seems to possibly be a nice region of development. Interesting to see how that cold pool progresses through time I also did not realize that there were specific threads to be introduced so if it is better to discuss in those individual threads then I guess we can close this or move the comments over to one.


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Tylor Cartter

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Millersville University


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so_whats_happeni...
post May 11 2017, 02:29 PM
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See if this continues but long range GFS is showing with the pattern switch in the next week and ridging setting up near the east coast it tries to bring possibly a tropical system around Florida by 5/23 via 12z runs.

Something to watch as the upper levels look to be at least decent this far out for some type of development.

GOM on the cooler side recently so it may just be the case for this, if it does develop, to go east of florida or up eastern florida with the normal if not slightly warmer than normal temps.

Attached Image


This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: May 11 2017, 02:31 PM


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Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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Undertakerson
post May 12 2017, 02:46 AM
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GFS still flirting with this notion

Attached Image


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Undertakerson
post May 13 2017, 06:15 AM
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Just updating as the models continue to signal the advent of a 4th period of May tropically cored system - varying intensities and tracks, of course.

GFS at 6z - not nearly as intense as the GFS spun it a couple runs ago, but still there


Attached Image


Euro at 00z - next frame out shows as an open wave in the region just northeast of where it shows it here


Attached Image



Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 13 2017, 06:17 AM
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 17 2017, 03:15 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 13 2017, 07:15 AM) *
Just updating as the models continue to signal the advent of a 4th period of May tropically cored system - varying intensities and tracks, of course.

GFS at 6z - not nearly as intense as the GFS spun it a couple runs ago, but still there


Attached Image


Euro at 00z - next frame out shows as an open wave in the region just northeast of where it shows it here


Attached Image



Attached Image


With the idea of troughing coming in during this time period through much of the eastern US I doubt we see much come from this other than maybe enhanced moisture into the east from the tropics, at this point in time.


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Undertakerson
post May 18 2017, 03:14 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 17 2017, 04:15 PM) *
With the idea of troughing coming in during this time period through much of the eastern US I doubt we see much come from this other than maybe enhanced moisture into the east from the tropics, at this point in time.

That would be best case scenario for Fl - the tropical moisture feed without the intensity of a TS. Here's to hoping for their sake. smile.gif
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Undertakerson
post May 21 2017, 06:18 AM
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LR GFS starting to smell some OFM cooking (BSR) as systems from the deep Caribbean try to enter the GOM and keep those coastal residents on higher level of alert.

Jury is still out though, as the GFS seems to show these systems fully develop in the LR hours (276+), but then back down as we draw nearer

Attached Image


I'd show the GEFS view but for some reason, my go to source (EWall) is acting up this morning.

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MaineJay
post May 24 2017, 06:11 AM
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Thought I'd leave this here


Attached Image

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/


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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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so_whats_happeni...
post May 25 2017, 11:54 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ May 24 2017, 07:11 AM) *
Thought I'd leave this here


Attached Image

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/


Yea gfs has tried to fool me a couple times in the past month.


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stxprowl
post May 25 2017, 01:01 PM
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http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/above-no...ost-likely-year
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NorEaster07
post May 26 2017, 05:17 AM
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Accuweather going for 8 Hurricanes this year, 3 of them as Major (Cat 3 or higher)





Projected paths.


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so_whats_happeni...
post May 27 2017, 12:15 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 26 2017, 06:17 AM) *
Accuweather going for 8 Hurricanes this year, 3 of them as Major (Cat 3 or higher)





Projected paths.




That is not how that works. So they forecast 10 tropical storms 5 of which they predict to go to hurricane status and from there 3 of which then have to potential to get to major hurricane status. So overall average to slightly below average season while NHC goes average to slightly above.

Who will win lol


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Tylor Cartter

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Weather Observer:
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stretchct
post Jun 1 2017, 09:06 AM
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This message on the top of the Accupro site.

"GFDL Model Replaced by HMON Model
June 1, 2017
The GFDL model, which is one of the main hurricane models was discontinued by NOAA. It is being replaced by the HMON model which will be run on a few storms this season in both the Atlantic Basin and in the eastern Pacific.We will gradually switch over to the HMON model this summer. "


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jun 1 2017, 09:26 AM
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More info on GFDL

Service Change Notice 17-45
National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring, MD
945 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017.
To: Subscribers:
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather Information Network
-NOAAPORT
Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees

From: Dave Myrick
NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration

Subject: Discontinue GFDL Hurricane Model:
Effective with GFS upgrade in June 2017

In June 2017, the NWS National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) is planning to retire the Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Hurricane Model (GHM) and replace it
with a new NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)-based
hurricane model called Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled
Non-hydrostatic (HMON).

NCEP reviewed comments between Feb. 13, 2017 to Mar 17, 2017,
soliciting feedback for discontinuing the GFDL and replacing it
with the HMON system. Based on comments, NCEP will move forward
executing this plan. Please see the PNS for reference:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification/pns17-07gfdl.htm

NCEP is reasons for retiring the legacy GFDL Hurricane Model are
as follows:
1. The Environmental Modeling Center's (EMC) efforts towards
unification of operational models within the NEMS framework.

2. NHC's evaluation and endorsement of the new HMON through
evaluation of 3-year (2014-2016) retrospective experiments run
by EMC. HMON model consistently showed improved performance for
track and intensity skill for the North Atlantic and northeast
Pacific Basins as compared to the legacy GFDL hurricane model.

3. Retirement of key personnel at GFDL leading to a loss of
support for maintaining the GFDL Hurricane model in operations.

The timing of the proposed changes will be as follows:

1. Discontinue the GHM on the date of the GFS2017 upgrade in
June 2017. This SCN will be updated with the exact date once it
is known. On that date, all GHM products will be removed from
the following:

- NCEP servers under hur.YYYYMMDD will be discontinued:
http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/hur/prod
ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/hur/prod
www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/hur/prod

Where YYYYMMDD is year, month and day

- Model Analyses and Guidance will be discontinued:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov

2. With the hurricane model upgrade slated for June 2017, NCEP
will start delivering the new HMON operational model on the NCEP
servers. The HMON will be equivalent to the discontinued GHM.
For sample data please reference:

http://para.nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/.../noaaport/hmon/

Any questions, comments or requests regarding this
implementation should be directed to the contacts below. We will
review any feedback and decide whether to proceed.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Jun 2 2017, 02:34 PM
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Nothing concrete in the modeling, at this juncture. However, there seems to be a signal from the BSR that will change - perhaps even taking the form of a "jumper" (forms in E PAC and jumps C America, redeveloping in the GOM ala Beatriz, but with "better" environment to allow them to stand on their own. Beatriz rides the front that moves south towards the Gulf - does not become independent/stronger - still brings copious moisture stream through Fl where they need it).


Attached Image


Could also be a bad interpretation on my end though.... sad.gif

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jun 2 2017, 04:35 PM
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Mid Tn. Man
post Jun 3 2017, 01:13 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jun 2 2017, 02:34 PM) *
Nothing concrete in the modeling, at this juncture. However, there seems to be a signal from the BSR that will change - perhaps even taking the form of a "jumper" (forms in E PAC and jumps C America, redeveloping in the GOM ala Beatriz, but with "better" environment to allow them to stand on their own. Beatriz rides the front that moves south towards the Gulf - does not become independent/stronger - still brings copious moisture stream through Fl where they need it).


Attached Image


Could also be a bad interpretation on my end though.... sad.gif

Attached Image

Seems to be a CCKW ongoing,might want to keep an eye on the GOM at least





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stretchct
post Jun 6 2017, 06:41 AM
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Woke up to this. Not thread worthy yet.
Attached Image
. Comes out of gulf, cross Florida and up inland to my/pa from this point


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

12/12 .5"
12/9 7"

First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Jun 14 2017, 09:35 AM
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Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic showing signs of organization over the past three hours, increase in significant spin at low levels and convection is somewhat persistent.
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