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idecline
Posted on: Jan 12 2018, 08:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 19,151
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From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...um...is that a 'big' storm digging into the West by next Tuesday...??? blink.gif

Attached Image


QPF's 7-day

Attached Image


...don't be surprised if rain shifts further south than this QPF shows...this is a really rich moisture train ... wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2286046 · Replies: · Views: 366,364

idecline
Posted on: Jan 12 2018, 08:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...over 2 inches of rain was widespread in Bay Area...mountains got 4-6" with 10" plus in southern coastal mts...unfortunately this also contributed to the awful mudslides/debris flows near Montecito...

...more on the way early next week...
Attached Image

...southern trajectories are still in play with ridges dominating upper Canada...
OPC 48hr:
Attached Image


...high begins to shift by Monday...
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...let us get what we can before another winter high pressure of significance builds in... dry.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2286037 · Replies: · Views: 72,976

idecline
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 07:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866



Magnolia, MS on 01/11/2018

Athens, GA on 01/12/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2283431 · Replies: · Views: 289

idecline
Posted on: Jan 8 2018, 08:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866




Ramona, CA on 01/09/2018

Portales, NM on 01/10/2018
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2281302 · Replies: · Views: 289

idecline
Posted on: Jan 8 2018, 08:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...rain all day...got to love it...next surge coming through overnight...Southern and Central California need it!
Attached Image
OPC 48hr:
Attached Image

rolleyes.gif ...Yabba dabba doo...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2281294 · Replies: · Views: 72,976

idecline
Posted on: Jan 8 2018, 08:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...idee is no expert...La Nina appears to have peaked and warmer deep water currents are expanding to the east... unsure.gif (yes...some pay attention to "numbers" but most of these "describe the past")
...if 3-D makes any sense to anyone else...idee loves these shots... wink.gif
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...and for good measure...side view...with excellent thermocline, trade winds, temperatures...and trends...
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"What goes up, must come down...spinning wheel spinning round..."....Blood, Sweat and Tears
QUOTE
...what does this all mean?...just that La Nina is always an accentuation of 'normal'( laugh.gif ) conditions implicated by the build-up of waters in the equatorial Western Pacific because of the convective persistence near the Indonesian archipelago...the resultant 'slant' of the thermocline results in the ability for winds to scour away surface waters near the American coasts(N+S) to allow 'upwelling' nutrient-rich cooler water to reach the surface...this in turn creates cool waters off the coast(s) and all of the marine life and adjacent marine sanctuaries that are along the Eastern shores of the Pacific Ocean...El Nino is the 'aberrational' pattern that 'demands' complex pattern changes because of it's basin-wide effects...


...above is a classic 'idee rant'... "all things have a beginning, and an end"

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/ani/
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2281287 · Replies: · Views: 99,664

idecline
Posted on: Jan 5 2018, 07:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...trying to maintain my first (and last) place position... dry.gif

Sulphur, LA on 01/07/2018

Petal, MS on 01/08/2018

...falling back to 1985...punk band 'Minutemen' album..."Three Way Tie (for Last)"...

Attached Image

QUOTE
3-Way Tie (For Last) is the fourth and final full-length album recorded by the American punk band Minutemen. It is particularly notable for featuring several covers of songs by bands such as the Urinals, Meat Puppets, Blue Öyster Cult, Creedence Clearwater Revival, Roky Erickson and the Aliens. It was released very shortly before the death of D. Boon, who also painted the cover. Watt collaborated with Black Flag bassist Kira Roessler on three tracks ("No One", "Stories", and "What Is It?"). Around the time that the album was recorded, Watt and Roessler formed Dos. The last song, a cover of Roky Erickson's "Bermuda" was sung over the phone by Mike Watt.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3-Way_Tie_(For_Last)
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2279411 · Replies: · Views: 289

idecline
Posted on: Jan 5 2018, 06:33 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Attached Image
...sub-tropical warm front is trying to move in...some lingering showers should remain through Sat. morning...
Attached Image

...next stronger storm cruises in on Monday...by Tuesday morning should be in full steam with widespread rain smile.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2279401 · Replies: · Views: 72,976

idecline
Posted on: Jan 4 2018, 08:11 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...another storm is about to come in from a southerly component...unusual (IMO) for a La Nina...
Attached Image

...beautiful day ...southerly winds...high cirrus clouds and a large arm of cumulus sitting across the Santa Cruz Mountains...definitely all the signs of inclement weather on the way...the clouds are just filtering over the mountains now...rain is approaching soon...with a possible tropical tap..
Attached Image

...windy rainy conditions overnight into Friday...clearing into weekend as weak high pressure will move in...
...another perhaps stronger impulse looks ready for Monday night into Tuesday...
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...fire scorched areas will need to be watched for possible runoff problems...California really needs all the rain we can get ...when we can get it... smile.gif

BTW: from AccuWeather's San Jose Forecast page...70 broke the record high for January 4th of 66 degrees
QUOTE
DAY
70°HI
RealFeel® 68°
Precipitation 35%
The temperature breaking the record of 66 set in 2014 with considerable cloudiness
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2278859 · Replies: · Views: 72,976

idecline
Posted on: Jan 3 2018, 09:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...active out west for the first time in a long while...Attached Image

...zonal flow...?

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2277041 · Replies: · Views: 366,364

idecline
Posted on: Jan 3 2018, 09:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...just because the only chance for any severe weather would be out West... dry.gif

Cupertino, CA on 01/04/2018

...Happy New Year...and congratulations to Colorado Chinook (second round) and andyhb (overall) for the wins...
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2277022 · Replies: · Views: 289

idecline
Posted on: Jan 3 2018, 09:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


El-Lipsis weather did not have much time last week for forecasts...so the maps posted were for information...

The SF Bay Area is getting a rainstorm just in time for the new year...it is only January 3 and this is looking like a decent pattern is setting up for a series of productive fronts to roll through the West...
Attached Image

...yes the aforementioned 'front' is sliding through at a very oblique angle...yet it still is bringing plenty of unsettled weather...
Attached Image

...the water vapor loop is very revealing about how much moist air is moving into our area...after a long dry period it is nice to see this much energy reaching the California coast...best of all this middle latitude pattern looks to continue for the next few days...
OPC Pacific 48hr:
Attached Image


...this shows a nice set of 'chained lows' moving into WA/BC border area...with the other low into Juneau...
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...the 96 hr. surface map has a developing storm in the central NPacific...perhaps reaching 'hurricane' strength...the good trend is that this storm seems to stay further south...so with more zonal flow this storm (even if it is 'over-ripe') could be another round of wet weather...it certainly does look to be strong...

OPC 96hr: (500mb) upper air...

Attached Image


...and the 'zonal' flow of the upper air only seems to put the jet aiming at the Northwest and West Coast...
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2277012 · Replies: · Views: 72,976

idecline
Posted on: Dec 29 2017, 08:48 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Attached Image
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  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2269499 · Replies: · Views: 72,976

idecline
Posted on: Dec 28 2017, 09:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Attached Image

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  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2268688 · Replies: · Views: 72,976

idecline
Posted on: Dec 27 2017, 09:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...triple barreled low pressure in the Bering Sea...how long will this washing (warshing (sic)) machine last? unsure.gif
Attached Image


...topsy-turvy highs and lows...and jet stream with nowhere to go...center of country well below...zero...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2267992 · Replies: · Views: 366,364

idecline
Posted on: Dec 27 2017, 08:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...above average day time temperatures persist...(seems out of place after last season's rains)...cool at night.
Attached Image

...the West Coast is still stuck in a pattern of 're-cycling' low pressure systems sending some energy up and over the ridge...with much energy 'retrograding into the Bering Sea or even further east...it looks like a 'spin' cycle on a front load washer... dry.gif
OPC Pacific 48hr:
Attached Image


...this map hints at a short period of semi-'zonal' flow...maybe a shower into Northern California...?
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...this map seems to give that notion a 'heave-ho'...and the OPC 500mb upper air shows a 'triple play' in the Bering Sea...somebody is going to get very angry in the atmospheric 'agitation'...where will all of this go...?
Attached Image


...interesting effects should start to trend very soon...a major re'adjustment' in upper air and jet stream... huh.gif
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2267973 · Replies: · Views: 72,976

idecline
Posted on: Dec 23 2017, 07:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Dec 23 2017, 07:51 PM) *
Still a lot of uncertainty with this one...


rolleyes.gif unsure.gif biggrin.gif

TDAT!

Attached Image


...it looks to be a 'Last Minute' Christmas 'gift' for many... wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2265480 · Replies: · Views: 112,637

idecline
Posted on: Dec 23 2017, 07:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Attached Image
...cloudy and cool during the day...high clouds should leave overnights low warmer...
Attached Image

...good moisture flow will prevail for next few days...air and humidity not so 'dry' feeling for the Holiday...
Attached Image

...and a Happy Holidays to All!!!

OPC 96hr (500mb) upper air:
Attached Image


...with the large HP systems migrating so far north...a bit of weakness is developing at the bottom edge...
...large upper level lows are prevalent on this map...can they link up with southern flow coming into the New Year?
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2265475 · Replies: · Views: 72,976

idecline
Posted on: Dec 22 2017, 08:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...here is the 'sub-tropical' moisture supply for the next few days...
Attached Image

and here are the QPF's of what this plume may do... dry.gif

Attached Image


...Happy Christmas! ...and may the snow fall for those are 'Dreaming of a White Christmas'...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2264563 · Replies: · Views: 366,364

idecline
Posted on: Dec 22 2017, 08:45 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...low's were below freezing in much of the SF Bay Area last night...we had a 1/4" of ice in one of the bird 'baths' made of plastic...not quite so cold for the next few nights...and are the lower portions of these high pressure becoming oblong instead of upright again (like 2016/17) ? ...we have a least a weaker ridge and high clouds the next few days...
Attached Image

...and forming further south in the GOA ...OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...seems we will be in a 'variable' pattern...until another 'buckle' appears in the atmosphere...weak La Nina???

...in case we don't see you until after the "Holidays"...have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year...!!

  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2264561 · Replies: · Views: 72,976

idecline
Posted on: Dec 22 2017, 08:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


QUOTE
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC
DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 December 2017
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18,
with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring.


...latest update singing the same song...seemingly the mild La Nina is at it's peak...
Attached Image

...this shows the cooler waters at their (perhaps) highest intensity...the warmer than average waters to the West are increasing and slowly moving East...signs of an evolving OKW...reversed trades would coincide...

...sea level anomalies are beginning to look ominous... huh.gif
Attached Image


...a underwater event may occur soon... unsure.gif


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2264550 · Replies: · Views: 99,664

idecline
Posted on: Dec 20 2017, 07:52 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...rain did slide through the SF Bay Area last night...front has moved inland and to our south...cold air behind.
Attached Image

...gusty N/NW winds into Thu./Fri...with cool to cold overnights...low 40's to near freezing...wind protected and more inland sheltered valleys in North Bay especially can expect below freezing temperatures next two nights...

OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...big high is rebuilding far to our north...with icy temperatures to plunge south from far Northern Canada...perhaps Christmas Day will bring us a warm-up and a few clouds... unsure.gif

  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2263052 · Replies: · Views: 72,976

idecline
Posted on: Dec 20 2017, 07:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


Jollyville, TX on 12/21/2017

Hope, AR on 12/22/2017

Opp, AL on 12/23/2017

Santa Claus, GA on 12/24/2017

Christmas, FL on 12/25/2017 ......................... Merry Christmas! ...and Happy Holidays to all!

Corpus Christi, TX on 12/26/2017
  Forum: Weather Games & Contests · Post Preview: #2263051 · Replies: · Views: 56,979

idecline
Posted on: Dec 19 2017, 07:30 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


...the moisture in 'tow' and augmentation of a southward moving LP gives us a decent shot for rain late tonight into tomorrow...hopefully this will 'dampen' not only the ground...it may 'dampen' the ability of our stubborn HP to bounce back so quickly...long term maps show the next system possibly getting just as far S...
Attached Image

...the speckled clouds moving Counter-clockwise down the coast show a secondary 'front' forming in the wake of the cold front...this energy is driving the cold front south and augmenting potential lift and thus 'rainfall'...
if the low drives a little further south before moving entirely inland we may get cool unstable rain behind the first front into Wednesday afternoon...as the 'storm' pushes east into the Four Corners region...
Attached Image

...lots of energy and moisture is active the Eastern Pacific basin...what does OPC Pacific think later this week..
OPC 96hr:
Attached Image


...huge ~1050mb high builds far into British Columbia...ridge looks vulnerable over Southern California...
can the 'southern' flow sneak underneath and give us much need rainfall into Southern and Central California ?
  Forum: Personal Weather Discussions · Post Preview: #2262546 · Replies: · Views: 72,976

idecline
Posted on: Dec 19 2017, 07:15 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 19,151
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866


rolleyes.gif ...those Tele's look better than predicted awhile ago...looks as if we might sneak a little rain into California in the coming week...tonight's passing of a cold front looks to get some augmentation...
Attached Image

...you can see the bright speckled clouds spinning around the LP advancing south...this is driving the cold front a little better than the original forecasts...rain may make the SF Bay Area tonight into tomorrow...

...what does this mean for the rest of the CONUS...? idee is viewing and this seems to put a little more of a push of moisture into the picture...as the trailing LP presses into the Four Corners region it should meet up the sub-tropical jet...as a large flow seems to arcing across Mexico into Texas and the Mississippi Valley...
Attached Image

...this should provide the moisture for strong storms into the ArkLaTex again later this week...and chances for snow into the NE... unsure.gif

...we are just happy out West to get any precipitation during this very 'blocky' introduction to Winter...

...and please keep those 'blues' away from us... laugh.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2262542 · Replies: · Views: 366,364

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