Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

16 Pages V  « < 14 15 16  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> June 27-July 5? 2018 MidAtl/NE Heat Wave OBSX, Observations - last minute forecasts
PoconoSnow
post Jul 15 2018, 07:40 AM
Post #301




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,263
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





Getting trained with thunderstorms right now

Best of the year for sure, constant thunder and lightning


Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Jul 15 2018, 08:32 AM
Post #302




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,911
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jul 15 2018, 08:40 AM) *
Getting trained with thunderstorms right now

Best of the year for sure, constant thunder and lightning

Rain just starting to get heavier here now, been rumbling since 8am. Took it's sweet time getting here. NWS forecast still says 30% chance of rain this morning. laugh.gif

Needed this rain pretty badly, spent all week watering the garden to keep it growing. Grass has gone brown in a few places.

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Jul 15 2018, 08:40 AM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Jul 15 2018, 09:36 AM
Post #303




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,263
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 15 2018, 09:32 AM) *
Rain just starting to get heavier here now, been rumbling since 8am. Took it's sweet time getting here. NWS forecast still says 30% chance of rain this morning. laugh.gif

Needed this rain pretty badly, spent all week watering the garden to keep it growing. Grass has gone brown in a few places.


I can second that

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jul 15 2018, 09:36 AM


--------------------
Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Jul 15 2018, 09:43 AM
Post #304




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,911
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jul 15 2018, 10:36 AM) *
I can second that

It's a nice surprise soaker, thought we'd be waiting until Tuesday to get a good soaking.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Jul 15 2018, 09:52 AM
Post #305




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,263
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jul 15 2018, 10:43 AM) *
It's a nice surprise soaker, thought we'd be waiting until Tuesday to get a good soaking.


Me too!


--------------------
Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Jul 15 2018, 12:02 PM
Post #306




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,911
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





Got over an inch out of that cluster of t-storms this morning.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Yesterday, 09:00 AM
Post #307




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,213
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





Man, it's HOT right now!


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Miller A
post Yesterday, 09:30 AM
Post #308




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,488
Joined: 5-December 08
From: Sussex, NJ
Member No.: 16,359





0.56" overnight Sat into Sun morn. Crazy boomers.


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ahoff
post Yesterday, 09:53 AM
Post #309




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 334
Joined: 28-January 17
From: Pittsburgh
Member No.: 31,393





Pittsburgh actually overachieved yesterday and reach 90! Very rare to overachieve to reach 90. 4th this month and 7th overall.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
telejunkie
post Yesterday, 01:37 PM
Post #310




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,523
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





91.5F yesterday and now sitting at 92F today...this one definitely over-achieved. Forecast was 84F yesterday and 86F today from NWS...


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5
12/12 - 9 1/17 - 7 3/2 -7
12/22 - 5 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9 3/13-3/15 - 17

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
밯e are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be -Vonnegut
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ahoff
post Yesterday, 02:07 PM
Post #311




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 334
Joined: 28-January 17
From: Pittsburgh
Member No.: 31,393





QUOTE(telejunkie @ Jul 16 2018, 02:37 PM) *
91.5F yesterday and now sitting at 92F today...this one definitely over-achieved. Forecast was 84F yesterday and 86F today from NWS...


We definitely don't over-achieve that much, lol! If we did we would have been 94-96!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Yesterday, 02:12 PM
Post #312




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,213
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





If it reaches 90 tomorrow this will be another heat wave which no one was talking about.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Yesterday, 02:23 PM
Post #313




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,095
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(LUCC @ Jul 16 2018, 03:12 PM) *
If it reaches 90 tomorrow this will be another heat wave which no one was talking about.


Probably no news outlets they tend to go for the bigger temps, but when you forecast 89 for days in a row you run that risk of just pushing over everyday. Tomorrow will be tough to get to that unless cloud debris disappears with the front coming in around 3-6pm across much of central and eastern PA and probably crossing the shore regions around dark. It was supposed to be hot when we get these ridge axis moving through and considering much of the last heat situation was higher than expected for many regions, probably due to surface drying pushing temps up a little more, gotta just keep an eye on it.

Looks good starting tomorrow evening though! Gotta watch out for possible flooding issues with thunderstorm potential as we move into weekend and next week with an upper low just sitting across the ohio valley area.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Yesterday, 02:47 PM
Post #314




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,263
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





This has peaked my interest for awhile for some MCS possibilities throughout multiple sub regions

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Yesterday, 02:49 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Ensemble Primer use only for real forecasting :)
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining/
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Yesterday, 03:10 PM
Post #315




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,095
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jul 16 2018, 03:47 PM) *
This has peaked my interest for awhile for some MCS possibilities throughout multiple sub regions


It would be cool to see an MCS like feature moving through the SW tomorrow.

As for over here the best forcing and mixture of cape with shear looks to be over SNE region for some decent development. Further north more linear (winds and hail, brief tornado) and further south looks to be scattered convection that may form into a line with high cape values will allow things to really tap aloft so may mix some winds down, too warm for hail probably except further north.

Finally bringing down the humidity which what im more waiting for than anything.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post Yesterday, 04:21 PM
Post #316




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,095
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





What an interesting radar down here had the bay breeze kick in and push west into BWI area fire off storms they died as they went NE but produced and outflow that enhanced the westward movement of the bay breeze on the north side and the storms from DC were moving NE on a similar boundary and have created their own outflow of winds from the SW just south of the city. Cool stuff.
Attached Image


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Yesterday, 05:30 PM
Post #317




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,075
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jul 16 2018, 03:47 PM) *
This has peaked my interest for awhile for some MCS possibilities throughout multiple sub regions



Haven't seen much in the way of rain, let alone thunderstorms in my area this summer. I wouldn't mind a few boomers, but not really interested in seeing anything too severe. smile.gif Very often, the convection wanes as it rolls off the high terrain.

QUOTE
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday will be a classic severe weather set up. The morning starts
off with fog and low stratus along the coast. This fog will
dissipate by mid morning leaving a humid airmass primed for
convection. A cold front approaching from the west will be the
trigger needed to get storms going. The front will arrive into our
far northwestern zones in the early morning crossing the entire
area from west to east reaching the coastline around 22Z. With
CAPE values of 1500 J/kg along with shear of 30+ kts expect an
organized convective line with severe wind gusts as the main
threat. Ahead of the line the humid airmass and low level
southerly and onshore flow will provide some low level turning
of the winds. If any storms are able to initiate ahead of the
main line there will be a threat for tornadoes within these
cells.


In addition to the severe threat, flash flooding will be a concern.
Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70s with PWAT values approaching
2" will provide plenty of moisture for storms. Coupled with a deep
warm rain layer and you get very heavy rain rates. The big issue
here will be whether the storms are training in one location. If the
line is able to remain progressive through the entire region
significant flooding would likely be avoided however even minor
changes in direction of the line will serve to focus the
precipitation in one area. Despite the potential for flooding have
opted not to issue a Flash Flood watch at this point as the total
area likely to experience flooding will likely be relatively small
and with the line passing through the entire region its hard to
favor one portion of the CWA over another for flood risk.


https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
telejunkie
post Yesterday, 10:28 PM
Post #318




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,523
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jul 16 2018, 03:47 PM) *
This has peaked my interest for awhile for some MCS possibilities throughout multiple sub regions

Looking forward to a some decent storm as i뭭e been on the sidelines for several recent events...just don뭪 want to get toned out to babysit downed trees on power lines...


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5
12/12 - 9 1/17 - 7 3/2 -7
12/22 - 5 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9 3/13-3/15 - 17

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
밯e are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be -Vonnegut
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

16 Pages V  « < 14 15 16
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 17th July 2018 - 04:13 AM