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> Major Hurricane Matthew, 10/6 2 PM EST CAT4: 140 MPH - 939mb - Movement: NW @ 14mph
Phased Vort
post Sep 24 2016, 11:41 PM
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Folks, here we go.

97L has been activated.

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2016, LO, O, 2016092212, 9999999999, , 024, , , 5, METWATCH, , AL972016


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Phased Vort
post Sep 24 2016, 11:45 PM
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00Z GFS hour: 240



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Phased Vort
post Sep 24 2016, 11:48 PM
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Hour 264:



It seems itīs trying to go towards the central GOMEX at this time frame.


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Juniorrr
post Sep 24 2016, 11:51 PM
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Another Pensacola hit-ish
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Phased Vort
post Sep 24 2016, 11:52 PM
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Hour 300:



Goes further west towards the central GOMEX as a major hurricane before it starts to turn to the north.


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Phased Vort
post Sep 24 2016, 11:54 PM
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Hour 312:

Major hurricane landfalls on the Florida pen-handle.



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Juniorrr
post Sep 24 2016, 11:56 PM
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Meanwhile Canadian rolleyes.gif
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
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Phased Vort
post Sep 25 2016, 12:00 AM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Sep 24 2016, 11:56 PM) *
Meanwhile Canadian rolleyes.gif



What !?

How does that model manage to do things like that ?


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Phased Vort
post Sep 25 2016, 12:04 AM
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Look what Matthew does after making landfall on the Florida pen-handle:

It becomes a strong NE costal storm, right when thereīs a cold high pressure bringing in cold here into the northern parts of the NE.

Impressive!





Lotīs of snow in New England in early October, biggrin.gif


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Phased Vort
post Sep 25 2016, 12:12 AM
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Early cycle models:

Attached Image


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Juniorrr
post Sep 25 2016, 12:13 AM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 25 2016, 01:04 AM) *
Look what Matthew does after making landfall on the Florida pen-handle:

It becomes a strong NE costal storm, right when thereīs a cold high pressure bringing in cold here into the northern parts of the NE.

Impressive!

Lotīs of snow in New England in early October, biggrin.gif

Impressive cold air for this time of year. Interesting times ahead...
CMC has a cat 1 by the Antilles maybe why it is way up north laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Sep 25 2016, 12:13 AM
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Phased Vort
post Sep 25 2016, 12:16 AM
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Intensity graphics for the early models cycle:

Attached Image


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Phased Vort
post Sep 25 2016, 12:20 AM
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Best track info for 00Z Sunday 25th:

Attached Image


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Phased Vort
post Sep 25 2016, 12:24 AM
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97L floater visible shot:



Shortwave IR:



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Phased Vort
post Sep 25 2016, 12:30 AM
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2AM NHC UPDATE:



QUOTE
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located east-northeast of Bermuda, and has issued the
last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Lisa, located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has developed in association with
a tropical wave and a low pressure system located several hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This disturbance is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean at 15 to 20 mph for the next several days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development as the system, and a tropical depression could form
while the system approaches the Lesser Antilles by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Stewart


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Phased Vort
post Sep 25 2016, 12:33 AM
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2 day outlook:



5 day outlook:



On this update, NHC moved the invest location farther south to around 7.5N latitude, as compared to 10N from earlier times.

This wave is pretty far south, folks!


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Undertakerson
post Sep 25 2016, 04:19 AM
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Euro makes an almost 90 degree turn out of the S Caribbean - and ends up NORTH of the islands (I think Hispanola?) as it heads towards the trough that came off the E US Coast. I'm not sure if it would make the hook up or not - if not, I would think it still recurves or comes up the EAST COAST

Attached Image


Here's a look at how far south in the S Caribbean it was before turning/recurving.

Attached Image


The UKIE from 00z - seems as if it would want to track to the northwest from the last plotted position

Attached Image


For those interested, the CMC would bring the system out of the C Caribbean and up through western Hispanola/Eastern Cuba - having eyes for Miami I would think.

And, once again the GEFS Means shift EAST of Florida - I did mention that the modeling of this system would "give us whiplash" before all is said and done.


Attached Image



Just looked at the NAVGEM - it is almost identical to the GGEM (meaning it's not likely to be correct) - the Euro (believe it or not) also seems to be somewhat close to the NAVGEM/GGEM combo. This makes me mistrust the "mighty" Euro - which, as we've seen with previous TC's, has done exactly been "King" as of late.

One of the reasons why I mistrust the Euro like look, is that in order to get there, the mid-lat trough has to be extremely deep and cutoff in order to provide the eastern escape hatch (by shunting the Atl ridge so far east). I don't think that's a correct solution. Then again, I highly doubt that the TC will come up to above 40N and drag snow into the W part of New England, either (GFS solution at 00z).

Fun times, regardless. smile.gif
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Undertakerson
post Sep 25 2016, 04:28 AM
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Our "go to guy" at WPC - Vojo is on the extended desk for the overnight disco. He has a lot to say about the modeling of the mid latitude features that could, ultimately, impact the track of the TC

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1237 AM EDT SUN SEP 25 2016

VALID 12Z WED SEP 28 2016 - 12Z SUN OCT 02 2016

...OVERVIEW...
PATTERN ALOFT ATTEMPTING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
AND WESTERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 (TROUGH) --- WITH A RATHER MILD
PATTERN AND DRY AIRMASS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER --- EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (RIDGE).

..MODEL PREFERENCES...
THROUGH 30/00Z---USED THE 24/12Z ECENS/NAEFS AND GEFS MEANS FOR
80-90% OF THE FORECAST BLEND ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS WPC BLEND
(10-20 % CONTINUITY) TO ROUND OUT THIS OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. BY 1/00Z
(END OF DAY 5) A 50/30/20 OF THE ECENS/NAEFS/GEFS SEEMS TO WORK
FROM WEST TO EAST WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE.

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...
THE FOCUS FOR MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD UNCERTAINTY LIES OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AT/BEYOND DAY 4. IT COULD VERY WELL BE A CASE
WHERE A COMPACT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY OVER SERN ALABAMA
REMAINS IN PLAY UNTIL DAY 4 --- AND IS UNDETERRED BY THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION AND CANADIAN AIRMASS ADVECTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST
. ALOFT...THE PATTERN WOULD BE MORE 'DISCONCERTING'
IF THIS WERE MID-WINTER RATHER THAN LATE SEPTEMBER
--- WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS OF 570DM (AT BEST) WITH THE FEATURE. A WAVE (12Z
CANADIAN/GFS) OR CLOSED LOW (12Z ECMWF/UKMET AND 18Z GFS) ---
EITHER WAY--- DOES MIGRATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON/JUST
AFTER 29/12Z --- AND IS VERY LIKELY, A MODIFIED REFLECTION OF THE
THE CURRENT CYCLONE TRACKING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
. AT THE SURFACE,
ANY SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE THAT CAN BE PRODUCED APPEARS TO BE TIED
TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS. MOISTURE
ADVECTION SEEMS VERY LIMITED. AND AGAIN...NOT A GREAT SETUP.

OF NOTE---THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE WITH THIS
MID-ATLANTIC WAVE/LOW...BUT THEY DO GENERALLY SHOW THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA. THOSE WHO LIKE LOOKING AT SOLUTION 'CHANCES' OR
STATISTICAL PROBABILITY --- THE 24/12Z CYCLE (INDIVIDUAL COUNT OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) THAT SHOW A CLOSED LOW SOLUTION INCLUDED: 7 EC
MEMBERS, 6 GEFS MEMBERS AND 2 CMCE MEMBERS. THIS IS ABOUT A TENTH
OUT OF THE ENTIRE ENVELOPE OF POSSIBILITIES VALID AT 30/00Z. THERE
SEEMS ENOUGH TIME TO MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT --- IF THE MUCH SLOWER
MID-LEVEL CUTOFF EVOLUTION REALLY DOES COME TO FRUITION AND TAKE
SHAPE ABOVE A BROAD 1024MB-TO-1028MB CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
.

BUT I AM NOT OVERLY CONCERNED WITH THE PROSPECTS OF A FEATURE THAT
A DETERMINISTIC RUN SEEMS TO LIKE AND LINGER 'ON TO' AND PROPAGATE
FOR 7+ DAYS OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF NORTH AMERICA
.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
RATHER MILD PATTERN CONTINUES TO HOLD FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE NATION --- BENEATH A STOUT RIDGE THAT MAINTAINS 500MB HEIGHTS
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE 582 DM. THE OPPOSITE BEING TRUE BENEATH THE
PACIFIC TROUGH---WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
CLIMO POPS FOR WASHINGTON...OREGON...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.

VOJTESAK
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MaineJay
post Sep 25 2016, 04:46 AM
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Wind shear, last 24 hours.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/wind...om=&time=-7

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Sep 25 2016, 04:48 AM


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"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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MaineJay
post Sep 25 2016, 05:16 AM
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Latest multiplatform tropical surface wind analysis. Bearing is due west, and didn't this thing seem like it's moving fairly quickly across the Atlantic?

Attached Image

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.htm...6&id=INVEST

For now, I'm going with a weaker system, on the south side of guidance until it crosses the Lesser Antilles. At that point I think it's largely a *bleep* shoot st this lead time. Looking at the 25/0z GEFS tracks, once the entity is south of Puerto Rico, track diverges quickly, and I suspect intensity does as well.
Attached Image

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/


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"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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