Dec 17-18 SE Storm, Possibility: Medium Range (4-10 Days Out) Forecasts Options

[weatherguysc]

I know the chances are slim, but the 0z GFS is showing a shot at some wintry weather in the said time frame. The 5K Ft. temps shown are able to support the white stuff over a big area. I just can't see this coming to fruition (spelling?) since it's been 75-80 degrees here for a week.

(Pics credit to Andy Wood & InstantWeatherMaps.com)






This post has been edited by weatherguysc: Dec 10 2012, 01:16 AM

[Gnutella]

I'd be satisfied with a 24- to 48-hour cold rain event at this point.

[Undertakerson]

I know the chances are slim, but the 0z GFS is showing a shot at some wintry weather in the said time frame. The 5K Ft. temps shown are able to support the white stuff over a big area. I just can't see this coming to fruition (spelling?) since it's been 75-80 degrees here for a week.

(Pics credit to Andy Wood & InstantWeatherMaps.com)

Old wood App forests wrapped in snow is a beautiful sight. Hope this works out for those of you who enjoy those sights as much as I do.

[disco_lemonade]

The gfs has been showing at least a somewhat southerly solution for storms in its mid to longer ranges. Even this 10-12 storm is very close to a phase with moisture and cold air for my area, and that is during this terrible pattern that were in, so I certainly wouldn't call it impossible.

[Mid Tn. Man]

[Mid Tn. Man]

Surface temps are not so great, but someone has a chance to see some white stuff.

[chattownsnow]

fun to look at... surface temps are crud though.

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[Mid Tn. Man]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2012

VALID 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH MODEST SPREAD PERSISTS AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL ENSEMBLE
DATA...CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THIS COMING FRIDAY/SATURDAY IS FAIRLY HIGH. HOWEVER...AT
LEAST IN PART DUE TO SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE ONLY BEING IN THE
PROCESS OF RETURNING AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES... JUXTAPOSITION OF THE
MORE FAVORABLE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS FAR FROM CERTAIN. EVEN
SO...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...PARTICULARLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LATE FRIDAY...THROUGH
ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WAVE
MAY BE TO HELP ESTABLISH SUFFICIENT MOISTENING...ACROSS THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND GULF COAST REGION...TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT WITH THE NEXT
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WHICH MAY SUPPORT STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE
SPREAD AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE DATA...THOUGH...IS
STILL MUCH TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
REGION SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...AND GRAPHICALLY DELINEATE AN AREA.


This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Dec 11 2012, 10:48 AM

[Mid Tn. Man]

Nice hit for the Carolinas per 12z

Edit:NC and Virginia

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Dec 11 2012, 11:46 AM

[31B militaryPoli...]

The 12Z GFS is further north than the 0Z run last night, but not as nearly north as the 0Z Euro. This very well could be a cold rain to snow situation for some depending on thicknesses and like you guys already mentioned surface temps will be warm so getting snow to the ground could be difficult unless you can get under high enough returns.

What grabs my attention is once this storm leaves our region it phases with the 50/50 low over Maine, and a strong blocking signal shows up around days 9 and 10 setting up another possible storm 22-24 with a much colder look...

[Mid Tn. Man]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST WED DEC 12 2012

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER JET INTENSIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE U.S. BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS THEN FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
...AS ANOTHER STRONG MID-LATITUDE JET NOSES INLAND OFF THE PACIFIC
...AND ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ONE OR MORE
INSTANCES OF STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS THAT COULD BECOME CAPABLE
OF SUPPORTING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. HOWEVER...THE
SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA CONCERNING
THE TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THESE FEATURES REMAINS MUCH TOO LARGE
TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN THE RISK FOR ONE OF THESE EVENTS...AND
GRAPHICALLY DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER AREA. IT DOES
SEEM...THOUGH...THAT GUIDANCE IS INCREASINGLY POINTING TOWARD A
ROUGH CORRIDOR ACROSS LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA...INTO THE CAROLINAS...EITHER LATE THIS WEEKEND OR SOMETIME
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

[hckyplayer8]

That time of year again huh.

Due to the mediocre setup out West and poor prestorm conditions; expect accumulating snow to be difficult to be had much further South than the Mason Dixon line.....I.E thinking Balt/Wash people will deal with more liquid than frozen.

However once you get a little further into the Northeast, the position and progression of the building block over Hudson Bay is just begging to funnel the lower level cold into the developing system.

My first guess would this will be a significant snow producer along the I84 corridor.

Whether we get enough lower level cold in soon enough for the cities along I95 remains to be seen.

Either way

-large HB block
-hints of said block retrograding

The players are there. Lets see if the NHL lets them play.

My post from the Mid/Atl thread.

This one doesn't have the lower level cold establish prestorm to make this a major threat for this thread....however after the established fall storm tracks and now this....would be very optimistic that this thread gets busy in the upcoming weeks.

[weatherguysc]

That time of year again huh.
My post from the Mid/Atl thread.

This one doesn't have the lower level cold establish prestorm to make this a major threat for this thread....however after the established fall storm tracks and now this....would be very optimistic that this thread gets busy in the upcoming weeks.

I'd be satisfied with a flake or two snow floating around personally from this one. The one I'm liking is around the 20-21 of this month. The setup is looking alot better than this one at the moment but we all know how that goes this far out.

[cg2916]

The models have been showing everywhere from the 19th-26th for snow for the SE. Which date gives the SE (SC) the best chance for snow?

[Mid Tn. Man]

The models have been showing everywhere from the 19th-26th for snow for the SE. Which date gives the SE (SC) the best chance for snow?

To early to tell

[weatherfan84]

is this storm no longer a possibility?

[Mid Tn. Man]

is this storm no longer a possibility?

It's looking bleak

[Mid Tn. Man]

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
BROAD TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SE STATES MONDAY. A SURFACE
LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT DEEPENS AS IT
MOVES NE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF THE
LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER MORE CONVECTION ACROSS EAST TN
AND THE SE MONDAY. WARM AND MOIST SW FLOW WILL ADD FUEL TO THE
STORMS WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE SE STATES AND PART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY. BEST THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL BE PLATEAU AND SOUTH
VALLEY INTO SE TN AND SW NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY. HIGHS MONDAY WILL
WARM IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. AN
AVERAGE OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WITH ANTICIPATED CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL DROP FREEZING LEVELS TO
BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THOUSAND FEET. LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS
FOR NOW NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION AND WILL JUST MENTION CHANCE AT
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH BRINGS SHORT BREAK IN WET
PATTERN.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1