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jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:27 PM


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If this isn't telling I don't know what else to say...

NOUS42 KNHC 221427
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 22 SEPTEMBER 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE MARIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/2330Z A. 24/1130Z
B. AFXXX 1715A MARIA B. AFXXX 1815A MARIA
C. 23/1900Z C. 24/0715Z
D. 26.5N 72.3W D. 27.9N 72.3W
E. 23/2130Z TO 24/0030Z E. 24/0930Z TO 24/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES ONLY
IF NEEDED.

3. REMARKS:
A. P-3 MISSION FOR 23/0500Z CANCELED AT 21/18500Z.
B. THERE WILL BE P-3 RESEARCH MISSIONS TODAY, SATURDAY, AND
SUNDAY INTO MARIA DEPARTING AT 1700Z
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247967 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 17 2017, 04:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(stilko4 @ Sep 17 2017, 04:28 PM) *
For winds weaker then a winter nor Easter?


Fits the criteria does it not?

QUOTE
Tropical Storm Watch
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246865 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 17 2017, 02:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE
AL, 15, 2017091718, , BEST, 0, 136N, 570W, 65, 986, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 60, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
AL, 15, 2017091718, , BEST, 0, 136N, 570W, 65, 986, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 20, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
AL, 15, 2017091718, , BEST, 0, 136N, 570W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 10, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246837 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 17 2017, 10:06 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


NAVGEM is just inside the BM also...

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246774 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 11:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Updated from South Florida Water Management website...

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246694 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 11:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


A major question to ask yourself...if the block is the NW, why on earth does Jose feel the need to ram straight into it instead of head to the weakness to it's NE?
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246691 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 08:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(USCG AST @ Sep 16 2017, 08:31 PM) *
Wow she's looking healthy


The big question is let's see how well she looks over Hispaniola.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246671 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 07:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Just one example...
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246664 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 07:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(TC1 @ Sep 16 2017, 06:29 PM) *
Am I to take it that you don't believe the 12z Euro is right in taking the storm as far west at it did?

Not a sarcastic or rhetorical question.


In a word...no. The euro has performed horribly with Jose and I'm supposed to believe how it has Jose and Maria do a complicated Fujiwhara dance?
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246663 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 05:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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I will merely say that people should follow the rossby wave to figure out if the Euro is off it's rocker. ANYONE taking this run as gospel needs to look at the Euro history with Jose.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246656 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 12:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(ctdryslot @ Sep 16 2017, 11:18 AM) *
Starting to wonder what the benefit is of the GFS... Yes, it's fun to see different possibilities and impacts of different features, but it always seems to find its way back to the Euro. (I will see myself out before anyone starts throwing darts).

ph34r.gif


I am trying to find the stats that I saw earlier, but the GFS is scoring the highest in the 72hr window.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246627 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 12:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,122
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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 51.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246626 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 12:21 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 15 SEPTEMBER 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-105

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
B. LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 17/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 56.5W.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246623 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 12:15 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
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Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 50.5W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique and Guadeloupe.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches will likely be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 12.2 North, longitude 50.5 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A slower west-northwest
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. The
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Leeward
Islands.

Satellite images indicate that the disturbance has become better
organized, and it is expected to become a tropical cyclone later
today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within portions of Leeward
Islands by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the central and southern Leeward Islands
through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to begin
affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246622 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 12:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


CODE

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL962017 09/16/17 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 45 55 66 72 77 85 89 98 99
V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 45 55 66 72 77 85 89 98 99
V (KT) LGEM 30 31 34 37 40 47 53 61 70 79 87 94 98
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 6 10 11 6 0 6 5 6 5 6 2 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 0 1 6 5 3 2 -1 0 2 2
SHEAR DIR 213 174 178 201 206 301 357 334 315 268 301 9 311
SST 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.4
POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 158 156 157 157 157 157 155 159 158 158
ADJ. POT. INT. 173 173 169 165 160 149 152 154 155 151 154 143 151
200 MB T -54.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1
200 MB VXT -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
TH_E DEV 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 11 11 10
700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 58 59 60 66 68 62 59 57 63 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 18 20 21 23 22 22 25 24 27 26
850 MB ENV VOR 39 33 25 18 19 22 5 9 15 26 43 57 48
200 MB DIV 62 58 63 57 56 63 93 56 31 28 39 57 65
700-850 TADV -6 -2 1 5 6 0 1 -1 -4 -2 0 0 4
LAND (KM) 854 817 820 649 491 311 337 505 535 234 55 174 69
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.3 13.2 12.7 13.2 15.0 17.1 18.0 17.5 16.4 17.4
LONG(DEG W) 49.7 51.7 53.7 55.6 57.2 58.9 59.1 59.2 60.8 63.5 66.3 67.3 67.4
STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 19 17 14 4 7 11 14 13 11 2 9
HEAT CONTENT 24 38 50 51 64 73 72 58 43 80 79 123 96

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 18.2


POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017
1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246621 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 11:54 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 16 2017, 11:45 AM) *
Looks like given the NHC server info that Potential Tropical Cyclone 15, has become a tropical depression.
Should be upgraded on the NHC site on the next advisory.


Did you notice the date...2017091300? September 13th 00z

Which ftp did you get that from?

SHIPS forecast ftp doesn't have a TD-15.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246619 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 11:20 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(clindner00 @ Sep 16 2017, 10:32 AM) *
This is the system that just became tropical depression 15, correct?


Still considered an invest in the ftp data...

QUOTE
AL, 15, 2017091612, , BEST, 0, 122N, 497W, 30, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 70, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028, TRANSITIONED, alB62017 to al152017,
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246608 · Replies: · Views: 156,637

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 14 2017, 11:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


NAVGEM Rule...

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246280 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 14 2017, 03:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NwsScott @ Sep 14 2017, 01:58 PM) *


500 mb verification scores over North America.

1 = perfect score for model verification over NHemisphere 500 mb. Note Cmc is scoring better than the Gfs model. Ukmet as usual is scoring number 2.


NHX stands for Northern Hemisphere...so to state North America is wrong.

"NHX: 20N-80N"
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246202 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 14 2017, 01:54 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NwsScott @ Sep 14 2017, 01:45 PM) *


Ukmet 12z run today .

model stats

Ukmet is doing much better than the Gfs/Cmc.


Due to the multiple options regarding regions, millibar level, and days, it would help your cause if you told people which options you are specifically looking at.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246186 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 14 2017, 11:58 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 14 2017, 11:49 AM) *
Professor is testing the NAVGEM rule - system sits as 993mb at NJ coast on this run. (980 at OBX prior to that)

Actually is at Delmarva

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-p...t&dd=latest


Indeed
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246163 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 13 2017, 09:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ionizer @ Sep 13 2017, 08:37 PM) *
so the NHC is based purely on ensembles and ensembles are lower resolution?

the models being posted here are based on some more complex details?


The NHC states where they get their forecast ideas from in the Discussion section...

QUOTE
Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017
Later in the forecast period, a northward motion is expected as a mid-
level high builds to the east-northeast. Jose is expected to move
through a break in the subtropical ridge in 3-5 days. The official
track forecast is similar to its predecessor and is about in the
middle of the reliable guidance suite.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246090 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 13 2017, 08:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 13 2017, 03:20 PM) *
The NAVGEM "Rule" states that, given its notorious progressive bias, the NAV can be a barometer (if you will) to what the others end up doing. So, if it is west of it's previous run, so too (often) will be the other global resolution models. IOW, it should almost always be the EASTERN-most model, in any particular suite of model runs.

We use it all the time in winter and, now, it seems to work just as well (in the main) with TC's.

But, like any "rule" (Typhoon Rule, Bering Sea Rule, etc.) it is not 100% (but not too much below) and can mislead.

So, I compare it to its own output from previous, then can anticipate a general move in that direction, from the other models. If a model doesn't adjust per the Rule, then I tend to not trust it. If the model does adjust to the Rule, then I give it more credit.

Edit - I probably did a horrible job at explaining the Rule.


  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246089 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 13 2017, 09:17 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(psu1313 @ Sep 13 2017, 08:12 AM) *
Some of these model runs are making John Madden's teleprompter drawings look reasonable.


Love it!
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2245996 · Replies: · Views: 149,085

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 13 2017, 08:17 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(longislander @ Sep 11 2017, 08:53 PM) *
Because Florida gets no snow, the electrical grid is built "poorly" down there - less resilient than it would be in a state where there was snow load.


Snow has nothing to do with it. In fact, Florida being the state with the most lightning strikes in the USA, it would argue the opposite.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/201...icane_irma.html
QUOTE
In 2013, FPL finished installing what was likely the most advanced energy grid in the country, a project for which the company had invested almost $3 billion. The U.S. Department of Energy awarded FPL $200 million for the grid from 2009 Recovery Act funds. Thanks to the resulting smart technologies in the system, such as sophisticated sensors and automated switches, the Florida utility was able to prevent some outages and mitigate others during Hurricanes Matthew and Hermine in 2016. Remarkably, 99 percent of FPL’s customers affected by Matthew had their energy restored within two days after the storm had left, and the average outage during Hermine was less than three hours.


http://www.floridatrend.com/article/18280/...chnology-center
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2245991 · Replies: · Views: 1,269,813

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