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> Feb 24-26 Northeast/Mid-Atl Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
RobB
post Feb 18 2016, 08:03 AM
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QUOTE
crankyweatherguy ‏@crankywxguy 51m51 minutes ago

Got a long way to go here. Unlikely any one new model run "sees something" relevent at this distance.

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jdrenken
post Feb 18 2016, 08:10 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 18 2016, 02:35 AM) *
[attachment=284895:5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif]


Based on my WPC anomaly correlation rule and the "big storms come NW", look for the slp to travel in a track between the Ukie and the WPC. aka...in Northern MS and AL, then just East of the aps roughly to DC up I-95.


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jdrenken
post Feb 18 2016, 08:11 AM
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QUOTE(Big Dave @ Feb 18 2016, 06:50 AM) *
i have to say this winter is the most fun and chalenging winter to forecast in my 20 plus years of following the weather. ever since i went to millersville university.. someone needs to write a book about this winter and this very strong el nino.. i would like to take this time to thank people like st. uts. ps. newbie. poc. snow and rob. for all your help with understanding the weather.. and ps. thank you snobal for your entertainment..lol. sorry for the mis spelling


Trust me...my research team is already thinking about doing a model vs organic forecasting paper from this winter. wink.gif


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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bvrdgpa
post Feb 18 2016, 08:15 AM
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WPC keeps it off the coast.

LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING FROM THE N-CENTRAL US SUN THROUGH
THE NERN US MON SHOULD SUPPORT A LOW TRACK WITH A LIGHT TO MODEST
PCPN SWATH. SUBSEQUENT ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL NEAR THE
WAVY TRAILING FRONT SET SEWD ACROSS THE US SRN TIER US IN THE WAKE
OF THE LEAD LOW. DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY MEANWHILE FOCUSING
MODEST NWRN US/ROCKIES PCPN WITH INLAND PASSAGE AROUND
MON...DIGGING INCREASINGLY SEWD WITH TIME IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
FLOW AMPLIFICIATION/WRN US RIDGE BUILDING. FLOW AMPLIFICATION
SHOULD ALLOW THIS AND NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COLD LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC CANADIAN AIR TO DIG DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL US AND
THEN IN MODIFIED FORM OVER THE ERN US WITH TIME. LESS PREDICTABLE
LEAD WAVY/FRONTAL DEVELOPMENTS AND STREAM INTERACTIONS NONETHELESS
SUPPORT RICH MOISTURE INFLOW TO FUEL AN INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
LEAD AND OVERRUNNING PCPN THREAT. HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD PERMIATE
FROM THE S-CENTRAL US NEWD THROUGH THE SERN/ERN US. THIS PATTERN
ALSO OFFERS AN EMERGING THREAT FOR SNOW/ICE ON THE COOLED NWRN/NRN
PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING PCPN SHIELD ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL TO ERN
US THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE ULTIMATE MAIN LOW TRACK.
THERE REMAINS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT ERN US/COASTAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT TUE-THU.



Day 6:

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Day 7:

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This post has been edited by bvrdgpa: Feb 18 2016, 08:25 AM
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baltimorewisher8...
post Feb 18 2016, 08:15 AM
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Looked at the models when I woke up, decided to brew a cup of coffee before coming here to see what was bound to be some entertainment.

I wasn't disappointed...

I'll leave you all with one word, patience... That doesn't mean that everyone gets what he/she wants.
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RobB
post Feb 18 2016, 08:20 AM
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QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 18 2016, 08:15 AM) *
Looked at the models when I woke up, decided to brew a cup of coffee before coming here to see what was bound to be some entertainment.

I wasn't disappointed...

I'll leave you all with one word, patience... That doesn't mean that everyone gets what he/she wants.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErvgV4P6Fzc
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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 18 2016, 08:22 AM
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QUOTE(Snowadelphia @ Feb 18 2016, 07:46 AM) *
For another thread, Euro and GFS are hinting at another storm right after this. It is an overrunning event as of now on the GFS.


Wouldn't a straight west to east 3-6" over running event one time this winter be nice? I have thoroughly enjoyed the tracking, but a sweet, single player, over runner would be nice.


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baltimorewisher8...
post Feb 18 2016, 08:21 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 18 2016, 08:20 AM) *


And now a little rock to start off my morning -- as always, this forum has you covered!

As many have eluded to, there have been no "trends" - only pendulum swings..
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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 18 2016, 08:24 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 18 2016, 08:10 AM) *
Based on my WPC anomaly correlation rule and the "big storms come NW", look for the slp to travel in a track between the Ukie and the WPC. aka...in Northern MS and AL, then just East of the aps roughly to DC up I-95.


Please don't tease me with a wonderful track for the inland and back it up with rational. laugh.gif


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baltimorewisher8...
post Feb 18 2016, 08:21 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 18 2016, 08:22 AM) *
Wouldn't a straight west to east 3-6" over running event one time this winter be nice? I have thoroughly enjoyed the tracking, but a sweet, single player, over runner would be nice.


It would be - especially if it originated, i dont know, somewhere out west in the rockies laugh.gif
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Supertyphoon
post Feb 18 2016, 08:23 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 18 2016, 08:22 AM) *
Wouldn't a straight west to east 3-6" over running event one time this winter be nice? I have thoroughly enjoyed the tracking, but a sweet, single player, over runner would be nice.


What!? You want it easy???? tongue.gif


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Supertyphoon
post Feb 18 2016, 08:25 AM
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My over/under forecast is in serious trouble. For purely selfish reasons I need a track along the east coast that smacks everyone.....ST


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On the left...
Back to the Rockers....the best!

Davis Weather Station my backyard in Ashburn: www.stormysweather.com/WxFlash

Forecast Challenge 2016-17 update:

Forecast competition has finished. Results released 3/16 at 8pm
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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 18 2016, 08:28 AM
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QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 18 2016, 08:23 AM) *
What!? You want it easy???? tongue.gif


Just one ST. just one. Doesn't need to hit my BY either, just one I can watch in here and 3-4 days out say, "yup, we know where shes going" smile.gif


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Elevation: 1625'


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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 18 2016, 08:33 AM
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QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 18 2016, 08:21 AM) *
It would be - especially if it originated, i dont know, somewhere out west in the rockies laugh.gif


Have you had a pretty good winter out there Balto? You had a good start didn't you?


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Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


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Ryan Duff
post Feb 18 2016, 08:38 AM
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QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 18 2016, 08:15 AM) *
Looked at the models when I woke up, decided to brew a cup of coffee before coming here to see what was bound to be some entertainment.

I wasn't disappointed...

I'll leave you all with one word, patience... That doesn't mean that everyone gets what he/she wants.


Amen


QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 18 2016, 08:21 AM) *
And now a little rock to start off my morning -- as always, this forum has you covered!

As many have eluded to, there have been no "trends" - only pendulum swings..


Preach. 🙌


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Undertakerson
post Feb 18 2016, 08:39 AM
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QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Feb 18 2016, 08:25 AM) *
My over/under forecast is in serious trouble. For purely selfish reasons I need a track along the east coast that smacks everyone.....ST

I'd post more but that would make me a top poster by the numbers - then I might be called a bully and "self important feeling" and "teenaged girl" by someone with a dozen and half posts. And then, if I even had a worthwhile post, it would be diminished by my selfishly juvenile behavior sad.gif

wink.gif laugh.gif
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baltimorewisher8...
post Feb 18 2016, 08:40 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 18 2016, 08:33 AM) *
Have you had a pretty good winter out there Balto? You had a good start didn't you?


I think we're running just below average this year but not too bad; We've had 3 occasions with about 2", one storm that delivered about 10-12" and another that dropped like 14-16".

Its been in the 60's most of February, making a run at 70 today.. If I cant have the snow, I love the warm and sun, and thats what colorado has been, snowy or warm and sunny - ill take it,

Sorry, back OT -- I think we will have a much better idea by Saturday - my current thought is a track along or just east of 95 - but my confidence is relatively low.
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rtcemc
post Feb 18 2016, 08:40 AM
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OK, I'll be that guy. GFS is a strung out mess, and I'm not talking about its latest run......
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baltimorewisher8...
post Feb 18 2016, 08:41 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Feb 18 2016, 08:38 AM) *
Amen
Preach. 🙌


HA! Glad I could do some of the heavy lifting for you this morning. Had an idea you might agree with those..
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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 18 2016, 08:46 AM
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QUOTE(baltimorewisher86 @ Feb 18 2016, 08:40 AM) *
I think we're running just below average this year but not too bad; We've had 3 occasions with about 2", one storm that delivered about 10-12" and another that dropped like 14-16".

Its been in the 60's most of February, making a run at 70 today.. If I cant have the snow, I love the warm and sun, and thats what colorado has been, snowy or warm and sunny - ill take it,

Sorry, back OT -- I think we will have a much better idea by Saturday - my current thought is a track along or just east of 95 - but my confidence is relatively low.


That sounds like a pretty nice combination! Snow or warmth, not too bad.


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Elevation: 1625'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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