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> Jan 18-19 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-3 Days Out) Forecasts
jordan4385
post Jan 15 2013, 09:30 PM
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nam bringing this north.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/...WI&hour=054

This post has been edited by jordan4385: Jan 15 2013, 09:33 PM


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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 15 2013, 09:30 PM
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QUOTE(jordan4385 @ Jan 15 2013, 09:30 PM) *
nam bringing this north.

It's not happening for most. Some rain for the southern Mid Atlantic, maybe snow for some, so there should be a thread at least for the southern Mid Atlantic, but there's not a chance this is a widespread storm further north.

NAM is overdone as usual. Typical NAM bias in play.
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jordan4385
post Jan 15 2013, 09:34 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 15 2013, 09:30 PM) *
It's not happening for most. Some rain for the southern Mid Atlantic, maybe snow for some, so there should be a thread at least for the southern Mid Atlantic, but there's not a chance this is a widespread storm further north.

NAM is overdone as usual. Typical NAM bias in play.



u said that about the last storm and now look it ended up in maine.


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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 15 2013, 09:33 PM
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QUOTE(jordan4385 @ Jan 15 2013, 09:34 PM) *
u said that about the last storm and now look it ended up in maine.

I already explained plenty of times what went wrong and why this one won't have the same fate. In that one, there were hints, but the models and a lot of us underestimated the strength of the SE ridge, and the stronger SE ridge sent it more north. In this case, there's practically no notable ridge involved; you're counting on a southern vort with no north stream support as the north jet is zonal with the PV over the region; this doesn't leave it much room to trend north. It could end up a little north of the southern Mid Atlantic but it's not coming way north.

And I wasn't the only one saying that about the last storm - almost everyone else was as well...

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jan 15 2013, 09:45 PM
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LoveNYCSnow
post Jan 15 2013, 09:35 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 15 2013, 09:30 PM) *
It's not happening for most. Some rain for the southern Mid Atlantic, maybe snow for some, so there should be a thread at least for the southern Mid Atlantic, but there's not a chance this is a widespread storm further north.

NAM is overdone as usual. Typical NAM bias in play.


I wouldn't completely rule out DC/Baltimore (more likely DC) from seeing some snow with this but it won't end up as far north as the NAM with snow almost to Central NJ.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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Phased Vort
post Jan 15 2013, 09:35 PM
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QUOTE(jordan4385 @ Jan 15 2013, 09:30 PM) *


There never was a Jan 18-19 thread for the MidAtl/NE.

There's one for the SE.

The storm you talking about is mainly going to affect the SE. I guess you could start a thread for it, since it could affect the very southern parts of the of the Mid Atlantic.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 15 2013, 09:40 PM
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This - the GFS 84 hours ago for tomorrow when it was modeled to be OTS - is a setup for a potential surprise event which requires a more amplified SE ridge to get it to be stronger/more north.

Attached Image


This is what came out of it.

Attached Image


This, for 60 hours out, is not a setup recipe for a widespread storm. Slightly further north than southern VA, yes. North of at least DC or maybe SNJ, going to be difficult to get that to happen...

Attached Image


This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jan 15 2013, 09:40 PM
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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 15 2013, 09:42 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Jan 15 2013, 09:35 PM) *
I wouldn't completely rule out DC/Baltimore (more likely DC) from seeing some snow with this but it won't end up as far north as the NAM with snow almost to Central NJ.

Yeah, slightly north is possible, but not to the extent of the NAM. I was wrong with the last storm, as were a lot of us (I wasn't the only one thinking it would stay suppressed while noting the potential for a slight north trend... ) but I admitted what went wrong, and upon reviewing this setup in more detail, there's not nearly as much room for a significantly north storm as there was with tonight's event.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Jan 15 2013, 09:43 PM
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paletitsnow63
post Jan 15 2013, 09:43 PM
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0Z NAM Clown map at H60. All of Virginia gets a nice dumping of snow. Also the Delmarva and S NJ.





Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
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Phased Vort
post Jan 15 2013, 09:52 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Jan 15 2013, 09:43 PM) *
0Z NAM Clown map at H60. All of Virginia gets a nice dumping of snow. Also the Delmarva and S NJ.


The cut-off southern branch energy phases with the northern branch support, allowing this to come as far north as it did, and since the northern branch support is so cold, this one readily becomes a snowstorm for VA and Delmarva.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 15 2013, 09:55 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jan 15 2013, 09:52 PM) *
The cut-off southern branch energy phases with the northern branch support, allowing this to come as far north as it did, and since the northern branch support is so could, this one readily becomes a snowstorm for VA and Delmarva.

There could be enough marginal cold air to make it a wet snowstorm for some. There is some north stream interaction, but this isn't a setup to pull the storm far enough to the north to get places north of DC-SNJ in the game. With that said, I can see it coming north and slightly colder than what the GFS, ECM and CMC show, but the NAM is an outlier currently with its depiction of the storm, and is likely influenced by its medium-long range biases, including temps too cold during the storm.
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Phased Vort
post Jan 15 2013, 09:58 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Jan 15 2013, 09:52 PM) *
The cut-off southern branch energy phases with the northern branch support, allowing this to come as far north as it did, and since the northern branch support is so cold, this one readily becomes a snowstorm for VA and Delmarva.


850mb temperatures crash below 0C and the surface temperatures, drop from the 50's to the low 30's (32 to 34).


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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NwsScott
post Jan 15 2013, 10:04 PM
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Not very optimistic this is gona be a big time event for us in the NYC area.More liking the following 2 events next week,the clipper and later hybrid.
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Phased Vort
post Jan 15 2013, 10:03 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 15 2013, 09:55 PM) *
There could be enough marginal cold air to make it a wet snowstorm for some. There is some north stream interaction, but this isn't a setup to pull the storm far enough to the north to get places north of DC-SNJ in the game. With that said, I can see it coming north and slightly colder than what the GFS, ECM and CMC show, but the NAM is an outlier currently with its depiction of the storm, and is likely influenced by its medium-long range biases, including temps too cold during the storm.


Yea. See post above.

Ground temperatures would be a nasty issue.

If southern NJ gets snow out of this, consider it a pleasant surprise bonus. Even Baltimore as well.

Delmarva could get something, especially the southern half of it as long as there's some interaction with the northern stream support.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 15 2013, 10:25 PM
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Pro met michael volk

QUOTE
A little more phasing with the northern branch and the Thursday storm would make it up to NYC. It will take a couple of more runs to see if this is a possibility.



http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/top...d-spell/page-14


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 172.3(as of 3/17)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1
My PWS
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Jan 15 2013, 10:29 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Jan 15 2013, 10:25 PM) *

Snowgoose

QUOTE
This is as nasty a northward trend with every storm we've seen since probably the 03-04 or 04-05 winter, everything seems to come more north and west inside 3 days. We probably need to see the storm over North Carolina at day 5 to have a chance.



http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/top...d-spell/page-14


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 172.3(as of 3/17)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1
My PWS
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NE MA Weather
post Jan 15 2013, 10:36 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Jan 15 2013, 10:29 PM) *

Thats why I'm liking the supposed suppressed pattern we are going in to.


--------------------
Winter 2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 43"

12/6--Coating
12/9--1"
12/10--0.5"
12/14--7"
12/17--5"
12/26--Coating
1/2--13"
1/10--0.5"
1/18--4"
2/3--1"
2/5--9.5"
2/9--0.5"

Winter 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 55"
Greatest snowfall for '12-'13: 21" (2/9)
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LoveNYCSnow
post Jan 15 2013, 10:36 PM
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RGEM def on board with the north trend but it's warm.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html


GFS Bumped WAY north, light precip into NYC

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_..._wnd_precip.gif

This post has been edited by LoveNYCSnow: Jan 15 2013, 10:41 PM


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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NE MA Weather
post Jan 15 2013, 10:40 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Jan 15 2013, 10:36 PM) *
RGEM def on board with the north trend but it's warm.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html

0z GFS is north


--------------------
Winter 2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 43"

12/6--Coating
12/9--1"
12/10--0.5"
12/14--7"
12/17--5"
12/26--Coating
1/2--13"
1/10--0.5"
1/18--4"
2/3--1"
2/5--9.5"
2/9--0.5"

Winter 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 55"
Greatest snowfall for '12-'13: 21" (2/9)
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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 15 2013, 10:41 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Jan 15 2013, 10:36 PM) *
RGEM def on board with the north trend but it's warm.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html

Not far from the NAM but again showcases the P-type issues. I actually decided to side with a north trend for my blog discussion tonight, expecting a scenario closer to the SREFs to verify in terms of precip coverage at least, but both SREFs and NAM seem too cold IMO, which is also a typical medium-long range bias they have (which is 60-84 hours for them). Still, with the arctic front moving through late in the day and at night, it won't be easy to get this to come up the coast, and even if it does initially do that, it will end up sliding east with the trough pushing in.
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