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> March 12-14 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility: 4-7 Day Medium Range
Blizz
post Mar 2 2014, 06:35 PM
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Looks like chance #2 with a storm similar to today... Right now it has mixing into PA... Where have we seen that before?







GFS has been consistent with showing something in this timeframe...

This post has been edited by Blizz: Mar 7 2014, 03:44 PM
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stilko4
post Mar 2 2014, 09:23 PM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Mar 2 2014, 06:35 PM) *
Looks like chance #2 with a storm similar to today... Right now it has mixing into PA... Where have we seen that before?







GFS has been consistent with showing something in this timeframe...

gfs was consistent with this current non storm for days and days, and we all know how that turned out. I wouldn't really pay much attention to any models till we get much closer (within 2 days)


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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JDClapper
post Mar 2 2014, 09:24 PM
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12z Euro Op appears to have a low heading into TN, transferring off of NC. Only goes to hr 240 on accuweather, so not sure what direction the op would take it.

On the other hand, 12z Euro EPS control has "MOG" Apps Runner. 972 mb in CPA through CNY.

So, Op is east and south of ensembles.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Mar 2 2014, 09:27 PM
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Do we have to wait much longer to state the obvious date that this storm may fall on?

SOTC baby! laugh.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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snowsux
post Mar 2 2014, 09:46 PM
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WAY too much uncertainty in terms of amounts of cold air it'll have to work with. In the part of the country this storm is set to strike, it could be 50 or 5 degrees, and nobody will know with any degree of certainty until a day or two out.
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JDClapper
post Mar 2 2014, 09:49 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 2 2014, 09:46 PM) *
WAY too much uncertainty in terms of amounts of cold air it'll have to work with. In the part of the country this storm is set to strike, it could be 50 or 5 degrees, and nobody will know with any degree of certainty until a day or two out.


Breaking news.



--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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snowsux
post Mar 2 2014, 10:06 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 2 2014, 09:49 PM) *
Breaking news.


Ain't that the truth, huh? I've followed these storm threads all winter long, and I've my personal uncertainty has been high for almost every one of them, even the Nor'easter that BR was vlogging about everyday a couple weeks ago that was supposed to happen this past Wednesday and instead went OTS.

This last storm however, I had nearly 100% certainty in, even down to right before the storm hit. Up until the storm actually hit this area, I wasn't buying the southern solution that ultimately did verify. In the end, you've just got to be in awe of how the models saw that little shift in the PV that ultimately displaced the core of the storm so far south. Don't throw the baby out with the bath water though. There's a couple more storms to track this month before it's all over whether or not they're big snow makers.
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JDClapper
post Mar 2 2014, 10:11 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 2 2014, 10:06 PM) *
Ain't that the truth, huh? I've followed these storm threads all winter long, and I've my personal uncertainty has been high for almost every one of them, even the Nor'easter that BR was vlogging about everyday a couple weeks ago that was supposed to happen this past Wednesday and instead went OTS.

This last storm however, I had nearly 100% certainty in, even down to right before the storm hit. Up until the storm actually hit this area, I wasn't buying the southern solution that ultimately did verify. In the end, you've just got to be in awe of how the models saw that little shift in the PV that ultimately displaced the core of the storm so far south. Don't throw the baby out with the bath water though. There's a couple more storms to track this month before it's all over whether or not they're big snow makers.


Indeed! Everyone got burnt.. some vocalized their concerns on suppression.. but other than that, everyone got burnt.

Just need to go out on a good note.. whether it's an expected 2-4", or a "big one".. going out with 1 under-performer and 1 complete bust is not the way I want to end this year. (As if I have a say in the matter laugh.gif)


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Blizz
post Mar 2 2014, 11:44 PM
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We now have this under 264 hours boys...



Anyone as pumped as I am?

This post has been edited by Blizz: Mar 2 2014, 11:45 PM


--------------------
WINTER 17-18
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
Season to Date: 7.5"
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 5


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2017)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4"
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KartAnimal29
post Mar 2 2014, 11:51 PM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Mar 2 2014, 11:44 PM) *
We now have this under 264 hours boys...



Anyone as pumped as I am?



I already have the plowing money spent , well the wife does laugh.gif I need to stop telling her about the long range

This post has been edited by KartAnimal29: Mar 2 2014, 11:54 PM
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Undertakerson
post Mar 3 2014, 05:57 AM
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Given the CMC performance of last storm, I decided to show what it thinks for this storm in its latest run

Attached Image


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html


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Undertakerson
post Mar 3 2014, 05:59 AM
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Storm missed on 6z but is still big and close by - right where we'd want it at this point.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_6z/mrfloop2.html


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JDClapper
post Mar 3 2014, 06:25 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 2 2014, 09:24 PM) *
12z Euro Op appears to have a low heading into TN, transferring off of NC. Only goes to hr 240 on accuweather, so not sure what direction the op would take it.

On the other hand, 12z Euro EPS control has "MOG" Apps Runner. 972 mb in CPA through CNY.

So, Op is east and south of ensembles.


0z EPS control is fairly warm until the "MOG" now goes off the NC coast and rides near the benchmark. Still a 972. NE big winners on this particular run... NJ and NYC looks like they'd do well also.

Op appears to have a Miller B-ish look.. TN/KY to the Delmarva? Warm. I-80 - NPA might be a little winter, especially after the transfer.

Interesting cha-cha's on both side.. EPS east from previous, Op north of previous and Op now west of EPS.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 5"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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mulligan
post Mar 3 2014, 06:54 AM
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snow maps?
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Undertakerson
post Mar 3 2014, 08:09 AM
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"Sorcery" connection to 1/21/14 on this potential.


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phillyfan
post Mar 3 2014, 12:58 PM
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If i'm looking at the 12z GFS right. OTS on the 12th then brings another storm through on the 14th.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5"

Total: 12"
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phillyweather08
post Mar 3 2014, 12:59 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Mar 3 2014, 12:58 PM) *
If i'm looking at the 12z GFS right. OTS on the 12th then brings another storm through on the 14th.



I'm looking at the same thing. Was wondering if I was crazy, lol. Potentially eventful 2 weeks lined up though....
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 3 2014, 01:50 PM
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On the 12th the euro has a storm headed towards the lakes but strong hp to the north is making it redevelop. .

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Mar 3 2014, 01:51 PM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 102.1(as of 1/13)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1
My PWS
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Mar 3 2014, 01:54 PM
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Somehow we get a snowstorm out of it, many days to go..


U know what they say, never good to be the bullseye 220 hrs out..

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Mar 3 2014, 01:58 PM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 102.1(as of 1/13)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1
My PWS
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kdskidoo
post Mar 3 2014, 02:06 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Mar 3 2014, 01:54 PM) *
Somehow we get a snowstorm out of it, many days to go..
U know what they say, never good to be the bullseye 220 hrs out..



you know what else they say (they being me and a lot of other PA snowlovers), never good to be in the bullseye 72 hours out either.

This post has been edited by kdskidoo: Mar 3 2014, 02:07 PM


--------------------
2015/16 snow totals

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