Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

39 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Feb 17-18, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
NorEaster07
post Feb 17 2018, 07:19 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,163
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Good luck and have fun folks..
Link to Forecasting Thread.

QUOTE
.SYNOPSIS...
A northern stream shortwave tracks into the lower Great Lakes
this evening and to near the S New england Coast by Sunday
morning. This shortwave will help intensify and kick a low
northeast from near the mid Atlantic coast late today, to the
south/east of the 40N/70W benchmark tonight.

While the system is fairly fast moving, it should have fairly
strong dynamics able to help maximize the production of
precipitation.

The CMC and ECMWF have trended
wetter, towards the NAM and SREF. The GFS is a relatively drier
outlier due to its more southern low track (due to well
documented issues the GFS has in dealing with damming highs east
of the Appalachians). AS a result have followed a NAM/ECMWF/CMC regional/SREF blend for the forecast for tonight.


Current Alerts...


Attached Image


Current Surface Map


Attached Image


Tracks


Attached Image


Snow Total Forecast


Attached Image



Moisture moves in after lunch today.. 2pm to 2pm loop from NAM3km



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Feb 17 2018, 07:20 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Feb 17 2018, 07:20 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,163
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Heading to work so did this real quick..

BTW.. (Pittsburgh doesn't have one?)
Be back later.

NWS Philly: Winter Weather Experimental Probabilistic Snowfall and Ice

NWS State College: Probabilistic Snow and Ice

NWS Binghamton: Winter Weather

NWS NY: Winter Weather

NWS Albany: Winter Forecast Page

NWS Boston: Winter Weather Forecast

NWS Burlington: BTV Winter Weather Forecasts

NWS Gray: GYX Winter Weather Forecasts

NWS Caribou: Winter Weather



Attached Image

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PlanetMaster
post Feb 17 2018, 07:29 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,585
Joined: 11-January 11
From: Babylon, NY
Member No.: 25,093





Coast is close but I think precip rates will over come and bring a good chunk of snow for most. 3-5 looks like a good bet and a few lollipops in there for 6+. I will go out on the limb and call for mostly snow after a mix at the start for the fringe areas south.


QUOTE
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
713 am EST Sat Feb 17 2018

A northern stream shortwave tracks into the lower Great Lakes
this evening and to near the S New England coast by Sunday
morning. This shortwave will help intensify and kick a low
northeast from near the mid Atlantic coast late today, to the
south/east of the 40n/70w benchmark tonight.


While the system is fairly fast moving, it should have fairly
strong dynamics able to help maximize the production of
precipitation. Thermally, it appears that areas north of Long Island
Sound, including the lower Hudson Valley, along with northern
portions of NE New Jersey should remain all snow. Across the remainder
of NE NJ, north NYC and north Long Island, any mixing should be limited
to within an hour or two of the onset of precipitation (before
it becomes more moderate to locally heavy in intensity). Along S
parts of NYC (staten island, Brooklyn and S queens) and S Long
Island (the S Fork + the area S of the Long Island expressway),
mixing could persist into or through the evening hours (possibly
into the morning hours over the S fork) due to weak onshore flow
from the Atlantic. Given that this flow should be less than 10kt
(and quite possibly 5kt or less) there is some question as to
whether it will be able to overcome column cooling once the
moderate precipitation begins. Snow should come to an end
across the area prior to sunrise Sunday morning.


There are still indications that there should be banding to the
northwest of the surface low - likely focused to the northwest of the maximum
in 850-700 frontogenesis - which should place it from NE New Jersey into S
central CT this evening. However, as always there is some
uncertainty as to exactly where this band will set up. Regarding
models showing 1000-850 partial thickness of 1300-1304 over S
portions of the area around 6z - this is misleading, because a
rev of BUFKIT forecast soundings shows an isothermal layer at
or just below freezing at the same time. This is consistent with
heavy precipitation at this time, and supports the idea of all
snow then. The possible exception to this is maybe across the S
Fork of Long Island, where weak onshore flow may warm the lowest
part of the atmosphere sufficiently to allow for rain to still
be mixed with the snow into the early morning hours.


Given the above, have made the following changes to winter
weather headlines:

1) issued a Winter Storm Warning for S CT, NE NJ, north NYC, north Long
Island, and the lower Hudson Valley (except Orange and Putnam
counties) for 4-7 inches of snow

2) issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Orange and Putnam
counties for 4-6 inches of snow. There does not appear there
will be sufficient quantitative precipitation forecast to support warning level snows over at
least half of these zones.

3) continued the Winter Storm Watch for S NYC and S Long Island
due to uncertainty of how much mixing with rain will occur this
evening. The potential still exists for 4-7 inches of snow, with
locally lower amounts near the immediate coast. In this area
Staten Island is the most likely to be converted to a warning
and southeast Suffolk the most likely to be converted to an advisory.
At this time, did not have the required 80 percent confidence to
do so.


This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: Feb 17 2018, 08:01 AM


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 17 2018, 07:30 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 7,271
Joined: 10-June 07
From: Morgantown, WV
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 17 2018, 07:20 AM) *
Heading to work so did this real quick..

BTW.. (Pittsburgh doesn't have one?)
Be back later.


NWS Philly: Winter Weather Experimental Probabilistic Snowfall and Ice

NWS State College: Probabilistic Snow and Ice

NWS Binghamton: Winter Weather

NWS NY: Winter Weather

NWS Albany: Winter Forecast Page

NWS Boston: Winter Weather Forecast

NWS Burlington: BTV Winter Weather Forecasts

NWS Gray: GYX Winter Weather Forecasts

NWS Caribou: Winter Weather

Attached Image

Doesn't surprise me, they are usually very light on discussion as well. Kind of a disappointing office after being in the STL WFO territory for my whole life.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Storms R us
post Feb 17 2018, 07:39 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,756
Joined: 12-February 13
Member No.: 28,281





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 17 2018, 07:19 AM) *
Good luck and have fun folks..
Link to Forecasting Thread.
Current Alerts...


Attached Image


Current Surface Map


Attached Image


Tracks


Attached Image


Snow Total Forecast


Attached Image

Moisture moves in after lunch today.. 2pm to 2pm loop from NAM3km



Question for you in reference to the tracks map. I thought this system in the south was more north and west so, why does the map show it quite south heading ENE?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PlanetMaster
post Feb 17 2018, 07:42 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,585
Joined: 11-January 11
From: Babylon, NY
Member No.: 25,093





QUOTE(Storms R us @ Feb 17 2018, 06:08 AM) *
Those who are all about the nam may want to listen to cranky before you get your hopes up to high just to be disappointed. How do the H5 maps (think thatís what their called) look? The time is almost here to find out how over done the nam is or isnít.

Just a question Storms R us besides going with what cranky says I was wondering your personal reasoning, in other words what are you seeing that has you agreeing verbatim with what cranky is dishing. If its just because cranky said it and he has pretty maps? Or is there any scientific or heck even a gut feeling, which I would buy right now, to your thinking? Just curious as UT, who started the thread has maintained focus throughout, kudos btw, where as cranky just joined the party a day or two ago, he wrote this whole scenario off or didn't even give it credence up until 36-48 hours ago. Maybe a bit of insight to your thinking here?

This post has been edited by PlanetMaster: Feb 17 2018, 07:42 AM


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Feb 17 2018, 08:01 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,074
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





Nice shot on shortwave IR. You can see the brisk upper level westerly flow, a low level NE drain, the golf stream as well as the relative warmth of the finger lakes, Hudson and Susquehanna River.

Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Feb 17 2018, 08:02 AM


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Feb 17 2018, 08:03 AM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,171
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 17 2018, 07:42 AM) *
I tried to explain to it to him early in the season when he moved there, but you have to experience to believe it. Morgantown is a rough spot for snow. Cumberland, Md often experiences similar fate falling on the eastern side. The deep valleys of the apps struggle. The setup always seems to be less crucial then their geography. Cumberland/Morgantown/keyser Are the williamsports of the apps. Precip is always lighter, mountains rip it away.


laugh.gif Love it.

Some real-time VS forecast obs.. looks more moisture laden into IL .. other than that, not bad.

Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34ľ"

Current Season: 22ĺ"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7ľ"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17Ĺ"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Storms R us
post Feb 17 2018, 08:06 AM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,756
Joined: 12-February 13
Member No.: 28,281





QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Feb 17 2018, 07:42 AM) *
Just a question Storms R us besides going with what cranky says I was wondering your personal reasoning, in other words what are you seeing that has you agreeing verbatim with what cranky is dishing. If its just because cranky said it and he has pretty maps? Or is there any scientific or heck even a gut feeling, which I would buy right now, to your thinking? Just curious as UT, who started the thread has maintained focus throughout, kudos btw, where as cranky just joined the party a day or two ago, he wrote this whole scenario off or didn't even give it credence up until 36-48 hours ago. Maybe a bit of insight to your thinking here?


Thank you for asking. First I give kudos to all even UT, I just donít believe in attacking people the way he just did. He could have just asked me to explain like you did.

As for the answer to your question. My gut feeling and seeing what happened the last storm when it was being discussed with high snow amounts to include double digits, it didnít happen the warm won out and the rain and freezing rain went a lot further moth and there wasnít much in the way of snow. With the warmth and rain just going through the area. I donít think the ground will freeze fast enough to get to those amounts that the snow will melt some before hand.

Every storm is different I know and during a transition time between fall and winter, winter and spring things can happen.





Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PlanetMaster
post Feb 17 2018, 08:08 AM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,585
Joined: 11-January 11
From: Babylon, NY
Member No.: 25,093





St. Louis, MO reporting moderate snow and rumbles of thunder west of Dallas. Looks good at this point, right on schedule.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Feb 17 2018, 08:14 AM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,171
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





Down to 21 last night and even at 9pm, the soggy ground was getting that "crunchy" feel... high temp forecast is 36 .. grass/decks should take on accums pretty easily, where it "counts"... gonna need heavier rates to get the pavement going, at least until the sun sets.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34ľ"

Current Season: 22ĺ"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7ľ"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17Ĺ"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PlanetMaster
post Feb 17 2018, 08:15 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,585
Joined: 11-January 11
From: Babylon, NY
Member No.: 25,093





QUOTE(Storms R us @ Feb 17 2018, 08:06 AM) *
Thank you for asking. First I give kudos to all even UT, I just donít believe in attacking people the way he just did. He could have just asked me to explain like you did.

As for the answer to your question. My gut feeling and seeing what happened the last storm when it was being discussed with high snow amounts to include double digits, it didnít happen the warm won out and the rain and freezing rain went a lot further moth and there wasnít much in the way of snow. With the warmth and rain just going through the area. I donít think the ground will freeze fast enough to get to those amounts that the snow will melt some before hand.

Every storm is different I know and during a transition time between fall and winter, winter and spring things can happen.

I am sure UT will be happy to hear that.

Ok I can buy the gut feeling, I guess its purely in the eyes of the beholder from past frustrations you have experienced. As with any storm the mix line is very hard to plot and sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't. This one is very close even for myself but I believe the upper dynamics, the intense rates that will be produced, timing, and a decent CAD which isn't really being degraded due to very weak onshore flow may prove just enough. Fingers crossed here.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Feb 17 2018, 08:18 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,074
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





9z SREFs look similar to the 3z

12 hour accumulation
Attached Image



http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.ph...WFALL_MEAN12HR_


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Feb 17 2018, 08:21 AM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,171
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





Guys... HRRR is in the house. The long wait is over.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34ľ"

Current Season: 22ĺ"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7ľ"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17Ĺ"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Feb 17 2018, 08:22 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,449
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





Bring it on tongue.gif

Shaping up to be a nice thumping type event for the Western Maryland and WV Apps with what appears to be some HEAVY snowfall rates during the meat of the storm.

I'll gladly take a generalized 4-8" spread and it couldn't have come at a better time for me as I head back home from the mountains out here on Monday to Baltimore's dreaded 95 corridor. dry.gif
Pittsburg's NWS

Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Solstice
post Feb 17 2018, 08:25 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 984
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





1320 UT(S? blink.gif)C radar.
Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Feb 17 2018, 08:28 AM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,171
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





Here's our 12z 500 set-up.


Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34ľ"

Current Season: 22ĺ"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7ľ"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17Ĺ"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 17 2018, 08:29 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,952
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 17 2018, 08:21 AM) *
Guys... HRRR is in the house. The long wait is over.


Let the hilarity ensue. Let's see how many times it changes.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Feb 17 2018, 08:31 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,171
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 17 2018, 08:28 AM) *
Here's our 12z 500 set-up.


Attached Image


Pretty darn good. (6z NAM)

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34ľ"

Current Season: 22ĺ"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7ľ"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17Ĺ"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Storms R us
post Feb 17 2018, 08:33 AM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,756
Joined: 12-February 13
Member No.: 28,281





QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Feb 17 2018, 08:15 AM) *
I am sure UT will be happy to hear that.

Ok I can buy the gut feeling, I guess its purely in the eyes of the beholder from past frustrations you have experienced. As with any storm the mix line is very hard to plot and sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't. This one is very close even for myself but I believe the upper dynamics, the intense rates that will be produced, timing, and a decent CAD which isn't really being degraded due to very weak onshore flow may prove just enough. Fingers crossed here.


Thank you and I look forward to seeing this play out.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

39 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 16th July 2018 - 03:09 PM