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> Dec 5-6th Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm, Please See Obs Thread
NYCSuburbs
post Nov 29 2009, 08:19 AM
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As the GFS showed two storms between the Dec 7-11 time period, I decided to create a separate thread for the first one, which is IMO likely to be a cold front. In fact, the DGEX is showing this at the end of its run, and so does the 06z GFS. One reason I am thinking it will be a cold front because the same is likely to happen with the few storms before it, the cold is initially in place and when the storm comes, the cold is pushed further west and warmth is brought in as the storm tracks inland.

Hour 180 on:

06z DGEX:
Attached Image


06z GFS:
Attached Image


This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Nov 29 2009, 08:30 AM
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Weatherjunkie
post Nov 29 2009, 02:09 PM
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12z NOGAPS has a storm but it's OTS

12z GFS has a GLC

ll GFS is weird, no east coast storm though

0z ECMWF is OTS with a weak system

not sure about the rest of the model suite such as the GGEM, JMA, and the ensembles, but it appears this one at best will be OTS.


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MikeySed
post Nov 29 2009, 03:02 PM
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accuweather and twc are both showing snow for Monday Dec 7th. Lets SEE how much that changes from now to then... (very pessimistic) after the last few years..


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WEATHERFAN100
post Nov 29 2009, 03:05 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Nov 29 2009, 02:09 PM) *
12z NOGAPS has a storm but it's OTS

12z GFS has a GLC

ll GFS is weird, no east coast storm though

0z ECMWF is OTS with a weak system

not sure about the rest of the model suite such as the GGEM, JMA, and the ensembles, but it appears this one at best will be OTS.

Agree, this looks OTS for sure. I dont see this being any thing major.


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Weatherjunkie
post Nov 29 2009, 03:19 PM
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12z KMA has a weak OTS storm.


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Weatherjunkie
post Nov 29 2009, 03:23 PM
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12z Euro is similar to the GFS and ll GFS in having some type of clipper/GLC type of a system. After re-looking at the ll GFS run, it's not that there is no system, it's that it shows HP along the east coast and a clipper track through the lakes/Canada. Regular GFS just has a straight up GLC.

Interesting as we now have two camps.

clipper/GLC or OTS

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Nov 29 2009, 03:25 PM


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The reason I talk to myself is that I am the only one whose answers I accept~ George Carlin

To be or not to be is not a question of compromise. Either you be or you don't be ~ Golda Meir

Sometimes good guys gotta do bad things to make the bad guys pay ~ Harvey Specter

Why is the rum gone? ~ Captain Jack Sparrow
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NYCSuburbs
post Nov 29 2009, 03:24 PM
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Still a GLC on the 12z GFS.


Attached Image



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yankees
post Nov 29 2009, 03:26 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Nov 29 2009, 03:23 PM) *
12z Euro is similar to the GFS and ll GFS in having some type of clipper/GLC type of a system. After re-looking at the ll GFS run, it's not that there is no system, it's that it shows HP along the east coast and a clipper track through the lakes/Canada. Regular GFS just has a straight up GLC.

Interesting as we now have two camps.

clipper/GLC or OTS


Do you mind posting it or telling us what it shows for the east coast


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TMSCR
post Nov 29 2009, 03:33 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Nov 29 2009, 03:24 PM) *
Still a GLC on the 12z GFS.


Attached Image



Attached Image



warm, warm, warm, warm!!! we're batting .000 on storms so far
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NYCSuburbs
post Nov 29 2009, 03:39 PM
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QUOTE(TMSCR @ Nov 29 2009, 03:33 PM) *
warm, warm, warm, warm!!! we're batting .000 on storms so far

That's the unfortunate look of it, as soon as we get the brief cold spell around Dec 4-6, things warm up just as fast (at least that's what it shows on the GFS). For the 12z temperatures, as there is still just a little cold left from the previous storm, temperatures are in the 40s and 30s during the two frames I posted above, and in the 40s and 50s (above average) when the cold front passes through.
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Weatherjunkie
post Nov 29 2009, 03:39 PM
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QUOTE(yankees @ Nov 29 2009, 03:26 PM) *
Do you mind posting it or telling us what it shows for the east coast


The GFS below should gives you a pretty similar idea to what the ECM shows, so for now that's what the east coast is looking at.


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The reason I talk to myself is that I am the only one whose answers I accept~ George Carlin

To be or not to be is not a question of compromise. Either you be or you don't be ~ Golda Meir

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LoveNYCSnow
post Nov 29 2009, 04:30 PM
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what a terrible december this shaping up to be


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NYCSuburbs
post Nov 29 2009, 05:01 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Nov 29 2009, 04:30 PM) *
what a terrible december this shaping up to be

It is definitely not looking good. IMO we only have a very small window to see snow this month, and this will definitely not be it.
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Torontoweather
post Nov 29 2009, 05:16 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Nov 29 2009, 05:01 PM) *
It is definitely not looking good. IMO we only have a very small window to see snow this month, and this will definitely not be it.


December might be a decent month for me for snow in Toronto.


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jonathanj
post Nov 29 2009, 05:21 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Nov 29 2009, 05:16 PM) *
December might be a decent month for me for snow in Toronto.


Dec 6-8th Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm
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ArmonkStorm
post Nov 29 2009, 06:00 PM
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QUOTE(jonathanj @ Nov 29 2009, 05:21 PM) *
Dec 6-8th Mid-Atl/NE Winter Storm


I think there is a canadian forum, but honestly Toronto is close enough, no big deal. wink.gif


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WEATHERFAN100
post Nov 29 2009, 07:16 PM
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December is turning its tide on us. From a "brutally cold and potentially very snowy month" to a "rainy and warm pattern". Really I think best part could be from Dec 26- jan 7 for first snows fo many of us.

This storm is looking quite warm and dry.


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justintime2989
post Nov 29 2009, 07:19 PM
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and i dont think as many people go to the canidian forum. but hopefully this storm helps the 9 th od december storm
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93blizzard
post Nov 30 2009, 11:34 AM
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For those who hasnt seen 12z GFS





PARA GFS





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AccuChris
post Nov 30 2009, 12:01 PM
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I may be wrong, but the storm coming up this Wednesday-Thursday may switch over to an OBS thread. This thread will then become the focus for the storm potential on December 4-5. Joe Bastardi talks about this new storm today, that the front gets hung up on the coast from the first system, and a new wave forms and brings a snow potential to the Mid-Atlantic Friday into Saturday. Interesting stuff, considering the GFS shows this now.

This post has been edited by AccuChris: Nov 30 2009, 12:21 PM


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