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> Dec. 31 - Jan 3 MidAtlantic/NE Winter Storm, Forecast Topic CLOSED; SEE OBS
NYCSuburbs
post Dec 20 2009, 10:53 AM
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The GFS has been consistent with some type of storm in this time period. The 18z and 00z show a coastal low developing too far OTS and the 06z GFS has a clipper moving through Upstate NY, developing into a coastal low. The latest GFS runs show the NAO as being neutral to slightly negative, AO as still negative but nowhere near as negative as now, and the PNA becoming neutral.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Dec 25 2009, 02:12 PM
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BaltimoreWeather...
post Dec 20 2009, 11:11 AM
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What's NOA and AO? And what does it mean 'negative'?
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Removed_Member_crankee yankee_*
post Dec 20 2009, 11:17 AM
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looks too far north for the mid atlantic states on this. Good for NE.
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Anomaly17
post Dec 20 2009, 12:26 PM
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QUOTE(BaltimoreWeatherGirl77 @ Dec 20 2009, 11:11 AM) *
What's NOA and AO? And what does it mean 'negative'?



Go the the forum homepage and look for the section titled "Weather Questions". This section will explain many of the acronyms used here, but you're going to have to be patient and just read all these posts to begin to understand what anyone is really talking about when the discussions get really heavy.
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yankees
post Dec 20 2009, 02:02 PM
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12z Euro looks to show a storm forming over the plains. At least it can not track into the great lakes probably going to move off the coast and possibly redevlop. Nice High to the north and cold air should come in even though it is warm at 240 but low is still far away


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Removed_Member_weathernut12345_*
post Dec 20 2009, 09:25 PM
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This storm is kind of reminding me of the Blizzard of '09 on the models this far out.... On the 0z, 12z, and 18z, it moves 100 miles west.. JACKPOT...
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pyrapurcell
post Dec 20 2009, 09:26 PM
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If this storm has more potential than the one over xmas for everyone, why is it so quiet in this thread?


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2009-10 Winter
First date of temperature below 10 F: NA
First inch of snow: December 5th
Total snowfall: ~28 inches
First blizzard: December 19th, 2009
First snow day: December 21st, 2009
Winter Solstice Dec 21 2009 12:47 PM EST
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post Dec 20 2009, 09:36 PM
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QUOTE(pyrapurcell @ Dec 20 2009, 09:26 PM) *
If this storm has more potential than the one over xmas for everyone, why is it so quiet in this thread?

Because this is VERY far out on what has been the worst winter for the models in about half a decade... This has a low chance of happening, the Xmas storm will happen... even though Xmas storm will be mostly rain.

This post has been edited by weathernut12345: Dec 20 2009, 09:42 PM
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pyrapurcell
post Dec 20 2009, 09:48 PM
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Does it still look favorable for this time period? I've heard the favorable period is about to be over soon.


--------------------
2009-10 Winter
First date of temperature below 10 F: NA
First inch of snow: December 5th
Total snowfall: ~28 inches
First blizzard: December 19th, 2009
First snow day: December 21st, 2009
Winter Solstice Dec 21 2009 12:47 PM EST
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post Dec 20 2009, 10:23 PM
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QUOTE(pyrapurcell @ Dec 20 2009, 09:48 PM) *
Does it still look favorable for this time period? I've heard the favorable period is about to be over soon.

"....NAO as being neutral to slightly negative, AO as still negative but nowhere near as negative as now, and the PNA becoming neutral" Look up and read laugh.gif So yes, still favorable, but not like the favorableness for the Blizzard of '09

This post has been edited by weathernut12345: Dec 20 2009, 10:24 PM
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NYCSuburbs
post Dec 21 2009, 07:00 AM
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06z GFS takes this storm from the Southeast through NYC. Of course we can't rely on the track this far out but it's good to know that the storm is still there. NAO is still expected to be slightly negative according to that run.
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post Dec 21 2009, 10:29 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 21 2009, 06:00 AM) *
06z GFS takes this storm from the Southeast through NYC. Of course we can't rely on the track this far out but it's good to know that the storm is still there. NAO is still expected to be slightly negative according to that run.


this is a similiar track to the current Christmas storm when the storm first appeared around the 8th or 9th of the month; we all know how that storm has turned out!

The GFS has a habit of over-estimating the strength of cold air at long-ranges, which causes storms to "appear" to be headed one way but then when the true strength of the air is determined, the track changes accordingly
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kab2791
post Dec 21 2009, 10:45 AM
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QUOTE(weathertree4u @ Dec 21 2009, 10:29 AM) *
this is a similiar track to the current Christmas storm when the storm first appeared around the 8th or 9th of the month; we all know how that storm has turned out!

The GFS has a habit of over-estimating the strength of cold air at long-ranges, which causes storms to "appear" to be headed one way but then when the true strength of the air is determined, the track changes accordingly


That is why I decided to start a Midwest topic for this storm, given what the christmas storm is doing. heck, the christmas storm is moving so far west to give me mostly rain, so I hope this storm is an apps runner.


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post Dec 21 2009, 10:48 AM
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QUOTE(kab2791 @ Dec 21 2009, 10:45 AM) *
That is why I decided to start a Midwest topic for this storm, given what the christmas storm is doing. heck, the christmas storm is moving so far west to give me mostly rain, so I hope this storm is an apps runner.

Can't say it will move to the Apps or a GLC. This is in a highly favorable pattern for an SECS still and I don't see this moving that far west.
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post Dec 21 2009, 10:50 AM
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QUOTE(kab2791 @ Dec 21 2009, 10:45 AM) *
That is why I decided to start a Midwest topic for this storm, given what the christmas storm is doing. heck, the christmas storm is moving so far west to give me mostly rain, so I hope this storm is an apps runner.


Latest model guidance suggests that the primary is much weaker with this one and transfers energy to the coast much sooner. If that's the case, the primary is being depicted as far too west by the models thus far.

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kab2791
post Dec 21 2009, 11:02 AM
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QUOTE(Classic90sBomb @ Dec 21 2009, 10:50 AM) *
Latest model guidance suggests that the primary is much weaker with this one and transfers energy to the coast much sooner. If that's the case, the primary is being depicted as far too west by the models thus far.

I'm concerned that the models over-advertise the cold air too much. The christmas storm was suppossed to feature a PV coming down in the plains and a strong blocking high, that would supress the storm to the EC; well, that doesn't seem to be working out.

Throw MI and OH and IN a bone, we're in a big snow drought here! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by kab2791: Dec 21 2009, 11:10 AM


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post Dec 21 2009, 11:09 AM
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QUOTE(kab2791 @ Dec 21 2009, 11:02 AM) *
I'm concerned that the models over-advertise the cold air too much. The christmas storm was suppossed to feature a PV coming down in the plains and a strong blocking high, that would supress the storm to the EC; well, that doesn't seem to be working out.

Through MI and OH and IN a bone, we're in a big snow drought here! laugh.gif

It is suppress the Christmas storm.... not to the east coast but there is suppression that weakens and slows the GLC allowing for a costal that has cold air to work with form along the coast...
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kab2791
post Dec 21 2009, 11:11 AM
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QUOTE(weathernut12345 @ Dec 21 2009, 11:09 AM) *
It is suppress the Christmas storm.... not to the east coast but there is suppression that weakens and slows the GLC allowing for a costal that has cold air to work with form along the coast...


Not understanding what you mean?


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post Dec 21 2009, 11:11 AM
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QUOTE(kab2791 @ Dec 21 2009, 11:02 AM) *
Throw MI and OH and IN a bone, we're in a big snow drought here! laugh.gif


Oh, I've been saying it for days. If this winds up being nothing to follow for the east, I'm pulling for this to become an epic 3'+ Great Lakes blizzard.

You're way, way overdue and the potential for something big is definitely there...
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kab2791
post Dec 21 2009, 11:19 AM
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QUOTE(Classic90sBomb @ Dec 21 2009, 11:11 AM) *
Oh, I've been saying it for days. If this winds up being nothing to follow for the east, I'm pulling for this to become an epic 3'+ Great Lakes blizzard.

You're way, way overdue and the potential for something big is definitely there...

I feel the christmas spirit of giving!

I hope you got that Nor'easter this past weekend; watching TWC made me so jealous, laugh.gif


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