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> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR and SOID
OSNW3
post Dec 10 2014, 09:17 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Dec 10 2014, 08:05 AM) *
Anyway to get this without signing up for twitter? Just says page does not exist, same thing using a Google search. Guess you have to have a twitter account?


My bad. I did that from my phone. I must have pasted the link incoherently. I updated the link in the original post. I am now at peace after DH set me straight.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Dec 10 2014, 09:19 AM


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grace
post Dec 10 2014, 10:51 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Dec 10 2014, 08:17 AM) *
My bad. I did that from my phone. I must have pasted the link incoherently. I updated the link in the original post. I am now at peace after DH set me straight.


I detect sarcasm. wink.gif
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Gilbertfly
post Dec 10 2014, 12:10 PM
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fun while the family is fighting the flu....that's a lot of f's......

Attached File  stnplot_20141022.gif ( 78.14K ) Number of downloads: 3


Attached File  12DEC2014_currents.gif ( 37.93K ) Number of downloads: 1


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5JM0nX-_So
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OSNW3
post Dec 10 2014, 11:10 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 10 2014, 11:10 AM) *
Attached File  stnplot_20141022.gif ( 78.14K ) Number of downloads: 3

Attached File  12DEC2014_currents.gif ( 37.93K ) Number of downloads: 1


Nice work. I hope your health stock is rising.


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OSNW3
post Dec 11 2014, 09:18 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 10 2014, 09:51 AM) *
I detect sarcasm. wink.gif


Who am I to say the current patten isn't a 100% connect at 62 days?

Attached File  dh.png ( 1.07MB ) Number of downloads: 12


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Gilbertfly
post Dec 11 2014, 10:01 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Dec 11 2014, 08:18 AM) *
Who am I to say the current patten isn't a 100% connect at 62 days?

Attached File  dh.png ( 1.07MB ) Number of downloads: 12


The "eyes" have it...........or not
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OSNW3
post Dec 11 2014, 10:13 PM
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TR - https://twitter.com/robertspeta/status/543194463581925377


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Gilbertfly
post Dec 11 2014, 10:27 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Dec 11 2014, 09:13 PM) *


Bonus style points
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OSNW3
post Dec 11 2014, 10:59 PM
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A little taste of the Mountain West BSRi

Attached File  bsr221.gif ( 439.03K ) Number of downloads: 1

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...time=2014121118

Still working on verification tools. It seems producing verification requires exponential effort in regard to producing the actual forecast.. Lol.


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Gilbertfly
post Dec 11 2014, 11:32 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Dec 7 2014, 08:36 PM) *
It is these types of comparisons that grab attention. I will be looking forward to his upcoming graphic. Fantastic work! Lol.


Ask and thou shalt receive....

Published on 24OCT2014 via Tom Skilling

Attached File  skilfeat102414_853x1024.jpg ( 263.76K ) Number of downloads: 1





Either will work....both features below were published early this week

Attached File  tsfeature120914_1024x860.jpg ( 259.69K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  featuregraphic121014_1024x634.jpg ( 220.28K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Dec 11 2014, 11:33 PM
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OSNW3
post Dec 12 2014, 02:00 PM
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Another LRC'er using the DH approach to the cycle duration.
http://www.wisn.com/weather/weather-blog-w...istmas/30198678

But wait! It gets better...

Attached File  lrc005.png ( 39.71K ) Number of downloads: 1

http://www.weather2020.com/category/general/

How can this be? Two LRC'ers using a different cycle duration?

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Dec 12 2014, 02:08 PM


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Gilbertfly
post Dec 12 2014, 02:14 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Dec 12 2014, 01:00 PM) *
Another LRC'er using the DH approach to the cycle duration.
http://www.wisn.com/weather/weather-blog-w...istmas/30198678


Here's the thing....as I am still learning and discerning (and trying to get caught up on) all the great work you have done over the last few years to take things to where they are now....I still have some shades of LRC in my mindset. But my "cycle" length is really not even close to theirs.....so maybe I'm done with LRC anyways lol ..... I just don't see it....62?


Edit: WTH....I don't see anything close to 41 either?! oiy....LRC spending too much time at KFC and got some grease on it's fingers as it thumbs through the maps....

for pete's sake.....

This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Dec 12 2014, 02:17 PM
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OSNW3
post Dec 12 2014, 02:34 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 12 2014, 01:14 PM) *
Here's the thing....as I am still learning and discerning (and trying to get caught up on) all the great work you have done over the last few years to take things to where they are now....I still have some shades of LRC in my mindset. But my "cycle" length is really not even close to theirs.....so maybe I'm done with LRC anyways lol ..... I just don't see it....62


I think the LRC/HP was a good starting point. It helped me realize that things were cycling. Kinda like learning how to dribble a puck and skate at the same time. "Seeing" the cycle/pattern just isn't in my vocabulary anymore. I have done my share of research/experimenting based on the core principles of the LRC/HP. Need to keep moving forward.

GL sees 41. DH sees 62. JN sees 60-63. Personally I think it's great. The only region that has a correl in the DH range is Region 8.

Attached File  lrc_hp.png ( 195.55K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by OSNW3: Dec 12 2014, 02:44 PM


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OSNW3
post Dec 12 2014, 02:40 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 12 2014, 01:14 PM) *
Edit: WTH....I don't see anything close to 41 either?! oiy....LRC spending too much time at KFC and got some grease on it's fingers as it thumbs through the maps....

for pete's sake.....


Some Regions are noisy. Coastal usually. Continental though, different story. Region 3 is locked in. Closer to the long-term longwave perhaps?

Attached File  harmonic1__3_.gif ( 45.51K ) Number of downloads: 3


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OSNW3
post Dec 12 2014, 03:51 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 27 2014, 12:48 PM) *
Sheesh. Quite the evolution.

[attachment=243564:1415mbLU...e010__1_.gif]

EDIT: can observed weather really predict future weather? I need to get the verification formulated. As of now I would guess what we have come up with is not any better than what is already out there. We have not stopped at realizing this method as a viable guidance and are continuously working on better algorithms. #workinprogress wink.gif

Attached File  1415mbLUK_image016.gif ( 30.2K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  1415mbLUK_image018.gif ( 34.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


So, the forecast evolves. I wonder if that is a good or bad thing. Even more reason for me to get the verification code up and running. Difficult to keep track of without it.

Attached File  1415mbLUK_image013.png ( 89.79K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  1415mbLUK_image015.png ( 99.53K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by OSNW3: Dec 12 2014, 03:55 PM


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OSNW3
post Dec 12 2014, 05:00 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 27 2014, 07:59 PM) *
KCOU looking for their first hard freeze of the season after that storm.

[Attached File  post_25792_1414461472_thumb.jpg ( 45.03K ) Number of downloads: 0
]


Evolved forecast and Observed for COU in NOV below



Kinda blew it?

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Dec 12 2014, 05:04 PM


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OSNW3
post Dec 12 2014, 10:28 PM
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Updated Google map for BSR stations. https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=zBNB...V8.kf9Rr6kBVJ7c


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OSNW3
post Dec 12 2014, 11:19 PM
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Difficult to comprehend. Not even sure it makes sense.

Attached File  bsr21.gif ( 230.89K ) Number of downloads: 11


http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hi....2014113000.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hi....2014120100.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hi....2014120202.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hi....2014120302.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hi....2014120402.gif


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Gilbertfly
post Dec 12 2014, 11:48 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Dec 12 2014, 10:19 PM) *


this makes complete sense to me

nicely put together analysis there
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OSNW3
post Dec 13 2014, 12:25 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 12 2014, 10:48 PM) *
this makes complete sense to me


I suppose that makes two of us then. Lol.

Not convinced of the usefulness of the BSRi charts. Someone needs to homogenize the signals and create fancy maps for all of us to enjoy.


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