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> June 11-16 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 See Text - Forecasts & OBS
snowlover2
post Jun 12 2011, 02:59 PM
Post #21




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Attached Image

QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 468
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST MONTANA
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL 800
PM MDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
BAKER MONTANA TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 467...

DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING IS REMOVING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
ACROSS NE WY/SW SD NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT...WITH STORM
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY 21-22Z. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY THE APPROACH OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW
WY/S CENTRAL MT...AND A SEPARATE SPEED MAX EJECTING NEWD FROM NRN
CO. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR /MLCAPE AOA
2000 J PER KG/...WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
WILL BE NE WY/NW SD WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE ARE MAXIMIZED
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND WHERE INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
GROW UPSCALE INTO A CLUSTER/MCS AND SPREAD NEWD WITH A CONTINUED
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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jdrenken
post Jun 12 2011, 03:42 PM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2011

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO
THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

...MIDWEST/LOWER-MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
NEAR THE TERMINUS OF A SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET AND ON THE
EDGE OF A CAPPING INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED PLUME
/EML/...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/SOUTHERN IA INTO WESTERN IL. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BUT
STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED EML WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE
DAY AND SERVE TO CAP THE WARM SECTOR/FRONTAL ZONE FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. ON THE PERIPHERY OF A GRADUALLY DEEPENING KS/NORTHERN OK
SURFACE LOW...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ WILL BE FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF AN ARCING WARM
FRONT /PERHAPS AUGMENTED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/. WHILE THE REGION
WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION NEAR THE WARM FRONT /2000-4000 J PER KG
MLCAPE/...THE STRENGTH OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/CAPPING PROVIDES
A MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF SURFACE
BASED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE WARM FRONT MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHERE A VERY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL OTHERWISE EXIST.

THAT SAID...VEERING WIND PROFILES ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE WARM FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES /AGAIN ESPECIALLY PROVIDED
NEAR-WARM FRONTAL DEEP CONVECTIVE INITIATION/. BUT...THE MOST
PROBABLE/GREATEST SEVERE COVERAGE SCENARIO IS FOR STORMS TO INCREASE
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...AIDED BY A NOCTURNALLY INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AS
IT IMPINGES ON THE FRONTAL ZONE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE A CONCERN DURING THE EVENING WITH A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY FOR UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH/MCS DEVELOPMENT.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY...WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MOST PROBABLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST CO/NEB PANHANDLE. WHILE A FLOW WEAKNESS WILL LIKELY
EXTEND THROUGH THE LOWER/MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...VEERING
WIND PROFILES/STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME TORNADO THREAT GIVEN A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS/MODERATE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.

...DAKOTAS...
ISOLATED STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH/INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ISOLATED BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE THE
MAIN CONCERN.

...SOUTHEAST STATES/GULF COAST/COASTAL CAROLINAS...
DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE/WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF A SLOW
SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCLUDES
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TO THE GULF COAST/NORTH FL. BOUTS
OF DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..GUYER.. 06/12/2011


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Jun 12 2011, 04:04 PM
Post #23




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First confirmed tornado of the day.

QUOTE
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
256 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN NIOBRARA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...

* UNTIL 330 PM MDT

* AT 251 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
REDBIRD...OR 22 MILES WEST OF EDGEMONT. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS
TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MULE CREEK JUNCTION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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SADBadger
post Jun 12 2011, 04:56 PM
Post #24




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From: Milwaukee
Member No.: 13,722





QUOTE
TORNADO WARNING
MTC011-075-122230-
/O.NEW.KBYZ.TO.W.0010.110612T2148Z-110612T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
348 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA...
SOUTHEASTERN POWDER RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA...

* UNTIL 430 PM MDT.

* AT 346 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BIDDLE...OR
27 MILES SOUTH OF BROADUS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BELLE CREEK BY 355 PM MDT...
RIDGE BY 405 PM MDT...


--------------------
Bass Drummer, Celtic Nations Pipes & Drums; Tenor drummer, Greater Milwaukee Fire & Police Pipes & Drums

Student, UW-Milwaukee, Biomedical Sciences/Medical Laboratory Technology
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SEMIweather
post Jun 12 2011, 04:59 PM
Post #25




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Joined: 4-May 08
From: Lake Orion, MI
Member No.: 14,772





Man that SE Montana radar hole is bad...currently looking at a tornado warned storm where the closest radar is 115 miles away. Attached Image


--------------------
University of Oklahoma Meteorology Major - Class of 2014


Follow me on Twitter.
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SADBadger
post Jun 12 2011, 07:00 PM
Post #26




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From: Milwaukee
Member No.: 13,722





QUOTE
TORNADO WARNING
MTC011-130015-
/O.NEW.KBYZ.TO.W.0012.110612T2345Z-110613T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
545 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BILLINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA...

* UNTIL 615 PM MDT.

* AT 542 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
ALBION...OR 48 MILES SOUTH OF EKALAKA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ALBION BY 550 PM MDT...

* PEOPLE NEAR ALBION SHOULD TAKE COVER AT ONCE!!


--------------------
Bass Drummer, Celtic Nations Pipes & Drums; Tenor drummer, Greater Milwaukee Fire & Police Pipes & Drums

Student, UW-Milwaukee, Biomedical Sciences/Medical Laboratory Technology
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SADBadger
post Jun 12 2011, 07:10 PM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Milwaukee
Member No.: 13,722





QUOTE
TORNADO WARNING
SDC019-063-130045-
/O.NEW.KUNR.TO.W.0011.110613T0001Z-110613T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
601 PM MDT SUN JUN 12 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN BUTTE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWESTERN HARDING COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 645 PM MDT

* AT 558 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUSTAVE...OR 38 MILES NORTH
OF DOWNTOWN BELLE FOURCHE...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GUSTAVE AND REDIG.


--------------------
Bass Drummer, Celtic Nations Pipes & Drums; Tenor drummer, Greater Milwaukee Fire & Police Pipes & Drums

Student, UW-Milwaukee, Biomedical Sciences/Medical Laboratory Technology
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jdrenken
post Jun 12 2011, 07:13 PM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521







QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1199
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 468...

VALID 130007Z - 130100Z

DEVELOPING BOW ECHO OVER SWRN SD IS BEGINNING TO SURGE NEWD AT
ROUGHLY 30-35KT. THIS SPEED/MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN LEADING EDGE OF
SQUALL LINE TO EXIT THE ERN PORTIONS OF WW468 AROUND 01Z. GIVEN
THAT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY
THAT THIS ACTIVITY...ALONG WITH OTHER STORMS CONGEALING OVER NWRN
SD...WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS IT PROPAGATES
INTO CNTRL SD. NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SHORTLY.

..DARROW.. 06/13/2011


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jun 12 2011, 07:14 PM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

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Posts: 39,265
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521







QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM UNTIL
200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MINOT NORTH DAKOTA TO 45 MILES EAST OF LEMMON SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 467...WW 468...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY IN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN ND AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH
AREA. FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND APPROACHING MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SUPERCELLS...INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HART


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Jun 13 2011, 01:36 AM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,988
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





New day 1
Attached Image


Tornado
Attached Image


Hail
Attached Image


Wind
Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MS
VALLEY...MID-MO VALLEY...CNTRL PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...

...MID-MO VALLEY/MID-MS VALLEY/CNTRL TO NRN PLAINS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS
TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX POSSIBLY CONTAINING A WIND DAMAGE
AND HAIL THREAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN NW MO
AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MO AFTER DAYBREAK. AS
DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE TODAY IN THE OZARKS AND MID-MS
VALLEY...THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY REGENERATE OR REMAIN STRONG
MOVING SEWD INTO THE NE AR AND WRN TN.

FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...A LARGE
AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE ON THE WRN EDGE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN NE CO...WRN NEB AND SRN SD AS LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT MOVES OUT INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR EVIDENT
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STORMS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. HOWEVER...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT
SHOULD ALSO EXIST WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT LINE-SEGMENTS. DUE TO
SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE MORE
INTENSE DISCRETE STORMS MAY ALSO HAVE A TORNADO THREAT MAINLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS ERN NEB...SW
IA AND NW MO WHERE THE NOSE OF A 45 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE
FOCUSED BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE...THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO THREAT SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
MORE DOMINANT STORMS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD HELP
CONVECTION TO PERSIST AND THE MODELS SUGGEST A LINEAR MCS WILL MOVE
SEWD DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO NW MO DURING THE EVENING
WHERE A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR WIND DAMAGE HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Jun 13 2011, 01:40 AM
Post #31




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,988
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





New day 2
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR ERN KS ACROSS MO TO
THE TN VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS HAVE TENDED TO REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING A COUPLE
OF PACIFIC TROUGHS PHASING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY 1
FORECAST PERIOD...AND EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
TUESDAY...REACHING THE MID MS VALLEY REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. IN
THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD FROM ERN KS
INTO WRN MO BY 15/00Z...WITH MODELS DIVERGING IN THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF DAY 2. DESPITE THIS
DIFFERENCE...THE ATTENDANT SEWD EXTENDING WARM FRONT FROM MO TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE MID MS AND TN
VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE
ERN KS LOW WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE.

FARTHER N...A TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NW
COAST...WILL ADVANCE EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN PLAINS BY
12Z WEDNESDAY. A LEAD IMPULSE...NOW MOVING ACROSS OREGON PER WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...SHOULD PRECEDE THE NRN ROCKIES TROUGH AND TRACK
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NRN NEB DURING PEAK HEATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...A N-S ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD
ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.

...IA/MO SEWD TO LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...
AT 12Z TUESDAY...MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
FROM IA SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MO/WRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
LOCATED WITHIN A WAA REGIME IN THE NOSE OF 45-55 KT SWLY LLJ
EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO NRN MO. MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-55 KT SHOULD BE RESULTING
IN SOME ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE FORM OF MAINLY LARGE
HAIL. THE LLJ WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE DAY WITH THESE INITIAL
STORMS SPREADING SEWD INTO THE LOWER TN VALLEY TO NRN AL ALONG THE
ERN EXTENT OF THE EML/CAP. DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH SEWD EXTENT SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN A SEVERE THREAT...DESPITE A POTENTIAL REDUCTION
IN THE STORM COVERAGE.

MEANWHILE...A STRONGLY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J PER KG/ AND
CAPPED WARM SECTOR SHOULD LIMIT UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE ERN
KS/WRN MO SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT BOUNDARIES UNTIL STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH. NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MID-LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN MO AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN FAR ERN KS/WRN MO. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT... ORGANIZED STORMS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH ACTIVITY GROWING UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE ESEWD
PROGRESSING MCS/S AS THE SWLY LLJ RE-STRENGTHENS INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING. VEERING AND EWD TRANSLATION OF THE LLJ INTO
THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS SUGGESTS THE MCS/S COULD AFFECT THESE LATTER
REGIONS WELL AFTER DARK WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...DAKOTAS/PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NEB...
AT 12Z TUESDAY...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS...LIKELY ATTENDANT TO THE LEAD
NRN STREAM OREGON IMPULSE...SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WRN DAKOTAS. DESPITE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD
ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DIABATIC HEATING...WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT GREATER INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS
REGION. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE LEAD IMPULSE AND DIFFLUENT
MIDLEVEL FLOW ATOP CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
SHIFTS EWD. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J PER
KG/...WEAK SHEAR AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT RAISE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE OR FAVOR A SUFFICIENT PROBABILITY FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.
THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE THIS REGION IN A GENERAL TSTM
AREA...BUT NOT INCLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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snowlover2
post Jun 13 2011, 02:45 AM
Post #32




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

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Posts: 17,988
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
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New day 3
Attached Image

Attached Image


QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KY/TN WSWWD INTO SERN MO
AND NERN/CENTRAL AR...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS ARE MORE SIMILAR THAN THE NAM WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES
DURING DAY 3 /WEDNESDAY JUNE 15/...WITH THIS OUTLOOK FAVORING
GUIDANCE FROM THE FORMER TWO MODELS. EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF/GFS
DIFFER IN THE SCALE OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY CLOSED LOW...THESE MODELS
AGREE WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT 40-50 KT WLY
MIDLEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF DAY 3. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS IT ENCOUNTERS A RIDGE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NERN MO AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD TOWARD SRN WI...WHILE WLY
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SUPPORTS AN ENEWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR AS
THE WARM FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY STATIONARY OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH THE MO PORTION
SPREADS SSEWD FROM MO INTO AR.

...TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS WSWWD TO AR/ERN OK...
ECMWF/GFS AGREE THAT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ITSELF ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN
VALLEYS WSWWD THROUGH OZARKS/AR TO ERN OK. A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR
AND DIABATIC HEATING BENEATH ERN EXTENT OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE
PLUME WILL SUPPORT A MODERATELY-STRONG UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH
HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE WRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT.

DEEP WLY TROPOSPHERIC WINDS SUGGEST LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY STORM MODE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...STRONGER SHEAR /35-40 KT/ ACROSS KY/TN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY RESULT IN A FEW SUPERCELLS. FARTHER W OVER
AR...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO BE WEAKER. HOWEVER...STRONGER
INSTABILITY SHOULD COMPENSATE AND SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS
WELL.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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jdrenken
post Jun 13 2011, 05:39 AM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,265
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521







QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
515 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN ILLINOIS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 515 AM UNTIL 100
PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF CHILLICOTHE MISSOURI TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT LOUIS
MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM CDJ TO JEF
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING
ALONG ERN EDGE OF CNTRL/SRN PLAINS CAP AND AT THE TERMINUS OF 50+ KT
SWLY LLJ. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE
OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50+ KT...SETUP WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29030.


...MEAD


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jun 13 2011, 05:44 AM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,265
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
535 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHWESTERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 615 AM CDT

* AT 532 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR JAMESPORT...OR 9 MILES EAST OF GALLATIN...
AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST
CENTRAL DAVIESS...NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON AND SOUTHWESTERN GRUNDY
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS SPRING HILL.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jun 13 2011, 05:55 AM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,265
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
555 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHWESTERN CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 645 AM CDT

* AT 553 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTH OF HIGBEE...OR 12 MILES EAST OF
FAYETTE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBIA...CENTRALIA...MIDWAY...STURGEON...HALLSVI
LE...MURRY AND
HATTON.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jun 13 2011, 06:14 AM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,265
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
613 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
EAST CENTRAL COLE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
GASCONADE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
OSAGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 700 AM CDT

* AT 611 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE.
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
JEFFERSON CITY TO BELLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINN...OWENSVILLE...TAOS...RICH FOUNTAIN...BLAND...MOUNT
STERLING...ROSEBUD...WAINWRIGHT...SCHUBERT...OSAGE CITY...
TEBBETTS...BONNOTS MILL...LOOSE CREEK...FRANKENSTEIN AND CANAAN.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jun 13 2011, 10:43 AM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 39,265
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521







QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1005 AM UNTIL
400 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FLIPPIN ARKANSAS TO
45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DYERSBURG TENNESSEE. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 471...

DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS IN MO...FED BY WAA ON THE
NOSE OF A 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ...WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD SSEWD TOWARD
NE AR WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW SURFACE-BASED
STORM DEVELOPMENT...EITHER AS AN EXTENSION OF THE ELEVATED MORNING
STORMS...OR NEW DEVELOPMENT ON THE FRONT FROM WRN TN INTO NE AR.
THE SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD THEN EVOLVE INTO A SSEWD MOVING
CLUSTER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 32030.


...THOMPSON


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


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+Quote Post
Southern Indiana
post Jun 13 2011, 12:40 PM
Post #38




Rank: Tornado
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Group: Member
Posts: 378
Joined: 21-April 11
From: Clark/Floyd County
Member No.: 25,607





I am not liking the current GFS Runs for what would be 600-830 EDT 6/15 Along the ohio river for Southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky.

Capes are currently between 2000-3500.



The lifted index gets into double digits blink.gif



Shear is going to be significant enough also.



Its also worth noting the NAM gave me wind speed of 60 knots blink.gif



This set up looks strong for some Super-cellular activity and rotating storms. I would expect storm probabilities from the SPC for the area to go up as the week progresses here.

This post has been edited by Southern Indiana: Jun 13 2011, 12:41 PM


--------------------
Clark & Floyd Counties,
Indiana 2013

Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 1
Severe Warnings: 2
Severe Watches: 1
Confirmed Tornadoes: 0
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Southern Indiana
post Jun 13 2011, 12:50 PM
Post #39




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 378
Joined: 21-April 11
From: Clark/Floyd County
Member No.: 25,607





LMK AFD for Wed 6/15 makes reference to possible weather.

QUOTE
THEN ON WED...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLES (AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS) SHOW THE MAJORITY OF
MEMBERS WITH DECENT PRECIP OVER OH VALLEY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...
HAVE RAISED POPS INTO LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MOST OF AREA. SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL LINGER WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH.


PAH AFD Hazardous Outlook also places some strong wordings on the coming weather.
QUOTE
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MULTIPLE EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF THESE STORM WILL BE QUITE
DIFFICULT. WHERE STORMS OCCUR...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
DEADLY LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF PASSING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.


LMK being a bit more conservative on its Hazardous outlook for wed. Wont go as far to mention Tornadoes being possible (Typical of the LMK forecast, they really reserve the use of speaking of tornado activity for when they are most certain.)


--------------------
Clark & Floyd Counties,
Indiana 2013

Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 1
Severe Warnings: 2
Severe Watches: 1
Confirmed Tornadoes: 0
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Seiche
post Jun 13 2011, 03:10 PM
Post #40




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 152
Joined: 27-May 10
From: Quincy, IL
Member No.: 22,864





QUOTE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC001-MOC103-111-127-132045-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0313.110613T1957Z-110613T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
257 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ADAMS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EAST CENTRAL KNOX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...
LEWIS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...
MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 253 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CANTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALMYRA...QUINCY...MENDON...FALL CREEK...PAYSON...CAMP POINT...
GOLDEN...CLAYTON...URSA...MARBLEHEAD...LORAINE...W
ODVILLE...
FOWLER...BURTON...PALOMA...COATSBURG...COLUMBUS...
DAMS...CHATTON
AND LA PRAIRIE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 9150 4020 9092 3983 9091 3973 9174
3991 9184 3994 9184 3995 9186 4023 9202
4024 9150
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 288DEG 24KT 4012 9140
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

GLASS
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