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Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 01:51 PM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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Suppression!

Or is it too soon for that? unsure.gif
laugh.gif laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253070 · Replies: · Views: 4,494

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 08:11 AM


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Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253017 · Replies: · Views: 6,886

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 07:56 AM


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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High clouds cover the entire area and lots of radar returns are
covering all of far wrn PA now. The rainfall from this swath of
precip are a tenth of an inch or so. The rain will be trying to
work down into the 20 dewpoints in place right now. The big
problem with this band of rain is that the temps have sunk to
well below freezing in spots, esp valleys, overnight. Now, the
wind has begin to come out of the south and it has warmed a deg
or two in spots, but many valleys are still in the 20s. The
temps should rise a few more degrees as/before the rain
arrives. But, we have made mentions in the HWO and and SPS about
pockets of FZRA possible this morning. This threat should end
by 8-9AM when everybody should be above freezing.

The rain will spread across the region this morning, and become
more spotty/showery this afternoon. The lower elevations of the
central and northeast mountains will have little chance to warm
up as the warm southerly wind passes right overhead. Will keep
maxes in the central mtns in the lower 40s. The wrn and srn
edges of the CWA have a chance to get into the lower 50s. But...
I wouldn`t hold my breath.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
By nightfall, the sfc low associated with the impending storm
will be over LE and deepening. The pressure rise behind the
front will be 8-12mb in 3hrs, and that fast rise is usually a
good signal that it will be accompanied by strong winds. BUFKIT
profiles portray winds in the lowest 3kft being in the 40s
tonight just before and for a few hours after the front passes.
Trouble for mixing down to the sfc is that most of the area will
be under a strong cold-air damming (read: stable) set up. The
pressure rise is strongest over the south, and the higher
elevations like the Laurels will have the strongest winds. Have
posted a wind advy for the SWrn counties, eyeing top-end
sustained speeds of 25-30kts and 40-45kt max gusts
. The advy may
need to be expanded to cover more of the forecast area if it
looks just a little windier than it does currently. The gusty
wind will subside but not die out during the post-sunrise
morning hours on Sunday.

There is a slight chance of some thunder tonight as the front
nears and passes. But, the convection would be detached from the
surface with the cold air in place and is not expected to pose
a damage threat. Have only mentioned T in the south tonight
where 8H LI`s drop below zero and CAPE is more than zilch for a
few hours. Temps will be a roller coaster tonight with a rise in
most places before and perhaps even slightly after FROPA, and
then a hard drop as the CAA kicks in. Sunrise temps will get
close to freezing in the NW. The precip left at that time may
turn to snow as well in the NW.

The cold air continues to drop the temp profiles evenly and snow
is the dominant p-type on Sunday, but it will still be too mild
anywhere but the NW mtns and Laurels to allow it to stick
. At
this point, the LES looks relatively tame during the daytime
Sunday.

&&


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253016 · Replies: · Views: 6,886

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 06:26 AM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Nov 18 2017, 06:22 AM) *
The pinwheels of energy have surely been a sight to see. Not very often do they get these big storms to occur in the Mediterranean Sea and surely enough to go from a baroclinic storm to a tropical like system is even more unusual. Wish they had a phase diagram or ways to see a cross section of this system to get an idea of whats going on.

Cool satellite!

Maybe not a whole lot of what you are looking for, but the FSU CPE maps may give an idea

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fc...17111800/7.html
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2253003 · Replies: · Views: 55,875

Undertakerson
Posted on: Today, 05:11 AM


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Hmmm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252995 · Replies: · Views: 14,381

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:19 PM


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18z GFS Op run trying to do its King imitation, I believe.

Nope - lost the idea at the "last minute"
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252958 · Replies: · Views: 4,494

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:06 PM


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Taking a sec between forkfuls to say the same MJ. I've been watching the successive runs of the GFS creep closer to the coast. NAVGEM corollary suggest the end game a bit closer than the Global models have it at present.

Interesting.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252957 · Replies: · Views: 14,381

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:56 PM


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Actually, the Euro Op run look almost too good to be true for snow lovers in the E. A pumped W Ridge w/axis crest slightly positive orientation, and rising heights along the NW Atl region - as a vort parcel spawns surface reflection in a zone of temperature contrast (plus moisture feed).

Attached Image


But when we look at the tele (Reforecast2, ESRL view) we see a PNA- (neutral at best) and a climbing NAO

Attached Image


So, what's up with that?

I may be off on this assessment but it's similar to Poc's post about the blocking v. the NAO (he views as two different "critters", though they bear semblance - at least what I think he said, too lazy to go back and look, etc)

Anyway, that's how I see the PNA v. W Ridge, they are, often, in tandem - but not necessarily. Or, should I say, either could be incorrect when they appear in opposition (PNA- teleconnection, but strong ridge out west at same time)

About the NAO region - we can get some pretty decent storms when that index is transitioning NAO- to NAO+ (I think SoWhat posted about that somewhere), so that is another thing I'll try to take into account.

I'll post more later - supper's on. smile.gif

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252955 · Replies: · Views: 4,494

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:23 PM


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Getting back to serious posts - this outlook is really not unfamiliar to those of us who hung around and haunted the tropical threads during the warm months.

We saw lobes of energy drop off the S coast and into the GOM - eventually, develop into SLP in the wake of the front on which it rode in. Various outcomes resulted - not all noteworthy - but some actually played a role in guiding and doing a Fujiwara with, I believe, Irma (don't quote me on that, I'm too lazy to look back and am relying on Friday afternoon memory of a Quinquagenarian) laugh.gif

Point being, I'm not shocked, at all, to see the same thing here. This might be even stouter initial energy than the warm examples. I give a nod to MJ (I think) who mentioned a quazi baroclinic zone setting up in the SE.

The next question, obviously, is what influence causes ejection and at what timing? Many questions and few solid answers, unfortunately (and, as usual at D8+)
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252950 · Replies: · Views: 4,494

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:12 PM


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Bah, LR Euro = Trolling for weenies. tongue.gif

PP wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252946 · Replies: · Views: 4,494

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:01 AM


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Attached Image


Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252829 · Replies: · Views: 6,886

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:14 AM


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Pacific develops an interesting look as an Omega (de?)-volves from the Rex

Attached Image


The attendant surface reflection in the E Asia Region, suggests a close shave for the east -within 7-10 days as per the "Rule"


Attached Image


Still, blocks are blocks - and result in split flow which = volatility among the solutions.

00z MREFs have mild support for the notion

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252825 · Replies: · Views: 4,494

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:23 AM


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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 17 2017, 04:13 AM) *
I traced back the energy best I could.

I deduced that this energy over the Kamchatka Peninsula (hope they do lots of balloon launches out there) laugh.gif

[attachment=333185:ezgif_4_5adaebcc40.gif]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...s_to_display=24

It then combines, and goes through the spin cycle with the swirl north of Hawaii. (Kamchatka energy in the extreme upper left corner.)

[attachment=333186:ezgif_4_6d3d718322.gif]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...&height=480

Well then, if that's ALL it has to go through, might as well lock it in and go lube up the snow blower. rolleyes.gif

laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252822 · Replies: · Views: 4,494

Undertakerson
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:57 AM


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00z Euro Op run - close enough to keep things interesting. At least for a day or two.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252820 · Replies: · Views: 4,494

Undertakerson
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 06:23 PM


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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 16 2017, 06:12 PM) *
Hi UTS

Please fire away on all thoughts

Well - given that, overall, I am being a "bear" regarding this cold season, you sure?? laugh.gif

I mean I could PP all over this thread, just as easily. tongue.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252773 · Replies: · Views: 4,494

Undertakerson
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 06:11 PM


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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 16 2017, 06:04 PM) *
Gfs goes boom at hr 252



Will see what euro says tonight

My buddies, who still go deer hunting, would probably be happy with this image.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252770 · Replies: · Views: 4,494

Undertakerson
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 06:09 PM


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GFS Ensemble spaghetti paints a Rex Block in the Atl region - not as strong/persistent as the current Pac Rex, but still could get the job done.

w/o blocking, in the right region - not much else will matter (this will apply through most of this winter, IMHO)

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252768 · Replies: · Views: 4,494

Undertakerson
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 06:06 PM


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My post from the Autumn thread (moments prior to the 18zGFS Op run for this time period)

Attached Image


laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252766 · Replies: · Views: 4,494

Undertakerson
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 06:00 PM


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Well, the spaghetti does show the block -

Attached Image


And keeps me within the "rule", I imagine

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252763 · Replies: · Views: 55,875

Undertakerson
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 05:53 PM


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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 16 2017, 05:49 PM) *
Can't look... you are showing operational modeling past 10 days. wink.gif

I can't help it if I can't find ENS blocking maps (graphs, yes - maps, not so much) laugh.gif

Attached Image

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252759 · Replies: · Views: 55,875

Undertakerson
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 05:47 PM


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Figures, the very next Op run GFS does this. laugh.gif

Attached Image


Wonder what kind of ensemble agreement it will have though.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252755 · Replies: · Views: 55,875

Undertakerson
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 05:33 PM


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speaking of which (blocking) the GFS block signal is still there in the medium-LR, but it's east based. Someone wise once taught me that EB Atl block is not good for cold and winter in the East US. Would favor a GL track (more of less).

As we can see in the caveman art depiction, the block is mostly East based (red line delineates roughly E-W)

By the end of the run, (mind you this is 00z GFS based) it tries to bleed west - problem there is the flat flow into the PACNW would crush the PNA/W Ridge, making digging troughs less likely.

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252752 · Replies: · Views: 55,875

Undertakerson
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 05:30 PM


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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 16 2017, 05:26 PM) *
His lack of Atlantic traffic tweets are going to become legendary.

I'll have to pay his account a visit then, I guess.

TBH - he and I are on the same page more often than I would imagine - his being so much better at this, than I.

Atlantic traffic, huh? I don't think I would have put it that way. To me, traffic denotes movement, not blocking. To each his own, though, I always say.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252751 · Replies: · Views: 55,875

Undertakerson
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 05:23 PM


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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 16 2017, 05:15 PM) *
Are you @cranky in disguise? wink.gif

Ha! An upstart and rogue (LOL)

If Cranky is saying the same, then I'm satisfied that I've interpreted things to some semblance of reason.

I can have my buddy rtc (another strong believer that blocking is only thing that save Nina winters in the East) attest to my saying this since October, actually. I practically wore him out chirping on that during our golf tournament. (Edit - the tourney was not Accu-forum related, in case anyone was wondering, it was a different one he graciously invites me to in mid-Oct. The Accu-crowd outing never got off the ground, kind of like too many of my "drives" laugh.gif )
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252749 · Replies: · Views: 55,875

Undertakerson
Posted on: Nov 16 2017, 05:11 PM


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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Nov 16 2017, 05:05 PM) *
As far as I can tell the synoptic scale pattern/forecast across the US remains the same.

SW flow across the west coast, zonal/northwestish flow across the east coast, and ridging in the middle:

And, despite the GFS signal for blocking - a relatively open route into the Atl. Which is why I've been on the kick of saying that w/o a true Atl traffic jam (read as - block) the E (particularly the MidAtl) will struggle to get a serious winter storm.

You image shows another of my, quickly growing tiring, concerns about the cold air chasing the moisture, in many occasions - at least to start with.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2252746 · Replies: · Views: 55,875

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