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> California Weather 'El-Lipsis' ..., "Discuss amongst yourselves" Forecasts, guests, and fun
idecline
post Jan 5 2018, 06:33 PM
Post #221




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Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 742.67K ) Number of downloads: 0

...sub-tropical warm front is trying to move in...some lingering showers should remain through Sat. morning...
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 314.85K ) Number of downloads: 0

...next stronger storm cruises in on Monday...by Tuesday morning should be in full steam with widespread rain smile.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Jan 5 2018, 06:38 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 8 2018, 08:38 PM
Post #222




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...rain all day...got to love it...next surge coming through overnight...Southern and Central California need it!
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 754.18K ) Number of downloads: 0

OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 309.08K ) Number of downloads: 0

rolleyes.gif ...Yabba dabba doo...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 12 2018, 08:46 PM
Post #223




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...over 2 inches of rain was widespread in Bay Area...mountains got 4-6" with 10" plus in southern coastal mts...unfortunately this also contributed to the awful mudslides/debris flows near Montecito...

...more on the way early next week...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 734.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


...southern trajectories are still in play with ridges dominating upper Canada...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 296.97K ) Number of downloads: 0


...high begins to shift by Monday...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 299.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


...let us get what we can before another winter high pressure of significance builds in... dry.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 16 2018, 08:39 PM
Post #224




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...little to no rain from last night's 'system'... sad.gif ...moisture is very rich to our west...slowly pushing east...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 660.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


...big system in mid-Pacific is slowly evolving into a larger storm...angle and forward motion say Wednesday night to Thursday morning for arrival...the dampening of the big high pressures will be a big plus...Zonal flow?
OPC Pacific 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 298.92K ) Number of downloads: 0


...OPC view puts front on Northern California's doorstep...with a 965mb low blink.gif just off Victoria Island, BC

OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 295.4K ) Number of downloads: 0


...second storm is forming in far western Pacific basin...seems to ride on a strong jet extension into the West...and the 500mb from OPC says we look to see 'zonal' flow for a few days...with moisture-rich air entering the CONUS...perhaps sending a snow storm (or two) into the Rockies/Midwest, then Northeast into the next weekend...resolving the Arctic air distribution factor will take place and February may start with ridge returning...long term could imply atmospheric weakness along the West Coast into Spring...or not...

OPC 96hr: upper air 500mb
Attached File  P_96hr500.gif ( 325.99K ) Number of downloads: 0


... rolleyes.gif ...let it 'flow'...

This post has been edited by idecline: Jan 17 2018, 08:21 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 17 2018, 08:39 PM
Post #225




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... rolleyes.gif ...had to edit previous post...idee worked Monday Martin Luther King Day and was one day off in his thinking...hopefully no one took their bumbershoot to work today expecting rain... laugh.gif
...rain should begin in the wee hours of Thursday morning...with some embedded heavier showers...lighter amounts will stick around through Friday...with a chance for a dusting of snow on the highest Bay Area peaks...
...now we have a very vigorous extratropical storm spinning off the coast of British Columbia...~ 965mb ...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 685.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


...lots of cold air stacked in behind this front...snows will be much lower than they have been in previous storms...speckled clouds behind the front show lots of uplift...and a 'jet streak' is aiming at the West Coast...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 295.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


...OPC 48hr. shows that low pressure may remain offshore into Friday allowing for cooler air and instability showers (snow to 3500') to reach down into the Bay Area on the back side of front...some energy moves east into Four Corners region emerging as a snow storm into the MidWest early next week...Northeast should follow

OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 302.42K ) Number of downloads: 0


...96hr shows a push of Arctic air may recycle around the back of this large trough...coldest air of the year for California???? by middle of next week...we shall see...more rain also...
OPC 96hr: 500mb upper air
Attached File  P_96hr500.gif ( 337.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


...the 'storm door' is definitely 'open' while this potentially 'short-lived' push of 'zonal' flow persists and the moisture track of upper air stays focused on the middle of the West Coast...

This post has been edited by idecline: Jan 17 2018, 08:41 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 22 2018, 09:52 PM
Post #226




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...North Bay Area got nailed...South Bat got "La Nina"-ed...the magical fronts stop at the South Bay and get 'hung up' on the Santa Cruz Mountain range...South Bay Area got mostly weak front and 'rain shadow'
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 693.32K ) Number of downloads: 0


OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 313.92K ) Number of downloads: 0


...a 'quick hitter' may again focus on the North Bay, slowly sliding south on Wednesday night into Thursday...
...the colder air and main rains and snows may be just to the north of much of Central California...Sierra's a good chance of more snows...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 24 2018, 06:32 PM
Post #227




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...the 'big' storm is moving in as we speak...widespread rain throughout the Bay Area...half an inch in the valleys to two inches in the mountains of North Coast and Santa Cruz Mountains...heavy wind and snow in the Sierras...rain should fall heavily tonight...with lingering showers into Thursday...next high pressure may 'block' the next potential system and send it more to the north...possible 'La Nina'(waning) high pressure next week...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 712.07K ) Number of downloads: 0

...rainfall should be steady this evening...front should slide south overnight giving rain to Central and even portions of Southern California...OPC 48 hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 308.26K ) Number of downloads: 0

...this shows offshore ridge trying to build sending what could be very moist storm more to the north...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 26 2018, 08:47 PM
Post #228




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...last of clouds from previous 'storm'will stroll by tonight...cool evenings and warmer days ahead...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 711.75K ) Number of downloads: 0


OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 313.28K ) Number of downloads: 0


...OPC has big storm taking northerly trajectory...high pressure may hang around for 5-7 days in long term...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jan 29 2018, 08:53 PM
Post #229




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...a lot of clouds today...the storm track is to our north...the trough and front to our north have us just to the south of the main precipitation bands...we have the remnants of the front over us...with middle level clouds...
Attached File  isaenepac.gif ( 988.15K ) Number of downloads: 0

...usually don't show the enhanced IR satellite picture...had to put it up...shows a vigorous little 'outbreak' of tropical convection to the southeast of Hawaii...this is augmenting the moisture flow that is crossing our area..

OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 296.77K ) Number of downloads: 0

...this shows the clouds being shunted away as HP builds along the West Coast and into the Great Basin...

OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 307.39K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the 96hr OPC forecast has an extremely large, strong extratropical storm winding up in the NCentral Pacific...where it goes will be important as the amplification of the flow may speed up the strom track in about 7 days...high pressure might wane along the coast by early week 2 of February... unsure.gif

...and , of course Water Vapor loop...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 720.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


...enjoy the warm days and cool nights...no particularly unusual weather for a 'waning' La Nina... huh.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 2 2018, 08:52 PM
Post #230




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Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 620.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 288.23K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 6 2018, 08:33 PM
Post #231




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...we omitted any text with our last post...El-Lipsis weather at it's finest...leave the forecast to the viewer... huh.gif

...um...high pressure means stable, sinking air...where is this on this water vapor loop...?
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 673.32K ) Number of downloads: 0


...offshore breezes all day...a front will pass to our north...the 'warm' front of this system is shearing away at our high pressure...the 'bubble' moves south...maybe we get a little change in our weather soon...cooler... wink.gif

OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 304.59K ) Number of downloads: 0


...it seems that the 'rotation' in the upper atmosphere is going to center around Hudson Bay...spinning cooler air southwards...into the North Eastern Pacific to the Rockies...or east of there...?


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 7 2018, 08:20 PM
Post #232




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...another beautiful "Spring" day...oh...it's only early February...this is what Southern California puts up with...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 672.17K ) Number of downloads: 0

...highs were again in the high 70's...cooler over the weekend as onshore flow will bring a bit of marine air into the Bay Area...

OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 294.97K ) Number of downloads: 0


...this shows the weakness forming in our high pressure...perhaps a little moisture can sneak through by Valentine's Day... wink.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 12 2018, 08:26 PM
Post #233




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...much cooler today after an 'inside slider' came down across the area yesterday...strong northerly winds were blowing items around as the edge of a front raced south and to our east...mild but windy...warmer soon
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 711.39K ) Number of downloads: 0


OPC 48 hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 297.3K ) Number of downloads: 0


...another little bit of troughiness will slide by later this week to our north...the high seems to rebuild bringing potentially record temperatures to the Bay Area into the weekend and early next week... huh.gif

OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 284.94K ) Number of downloads: 0


rolleyes.gif ...the word "Quasi-stationary" in relation to high pressure does bode well for rainfall chances soon..


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 13 2018, 06:59 PM
Post #234




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...a little less wind today...it made the mid 60's feel much warmer with the increasing sun angle...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 696.13K ) Number of downloads: 0


...the offshore high pressure truly looks like a 'La Nina' style mid-winter blocking high...rainfall chances look to remain meager for the next week or so...the "D" word is on the table...even if we do get a "March Miracle"...thankfully most of the reservoirs in the State are doing well after last years anomalous downpours...

OPC 96 hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 299.48K ) Number of downloads: 0


...the 'other-worldly' (Quasi-stationary sounds like something out of a Sci-Fi movie) is preparing to stick around at about 140W...the good news is that this may allow a few 'inside sliders' to at least hit the Sierras with light amounts of snow...if that pattern persists will should be cooler than average...then...we shall see if the SSW in the far upper atmosphere causes any pattern changes going into March... huh.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 16 2018, 08:50 PM
Post #235




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...here comes the end to our warmer than average weather...Saturday is still warm....Sunday a different story
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 699.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


...another inside slider is headed our way...with lots of cold polar air courtesy of far northern Canada...colder..
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 312.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


...lows only in the 50's on Sunday and Monday....with frost and freeze warning throughout the SF Bay Area...
OPC 96hr;
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 283.43K ) Number of downloads: 0


.hopefully this will ameliorate by late week with temperatures slowly rising by the end of the week... unsure.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 22 2018, 04:05 PM
Post #236




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...very cold nights the last few days...highs only in 50's most places...the sun is warm...the breezes are cool...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 654.41K ) Number of downloads: 0

...a little bit of rain moved through late last night(early morning Thursday)...now we have instability clouds building up as cold core upper air is moving over the region...this could cause showers, thunderstorms, and maybe even some hail...Mount Hamilton had snow overnight (~4,200 ft. elevation)...home of the 36-inch refractor telescope in the Lick Observatory operated by the University of California...
Attached File  Cam2.ts.JPG ( 544.16K ) Number of downloads: 0

...just a light bit of snow left at 1:00pm... rolleyes.gif
...more cold air on the way...as the trough and upper pattern linger over the forecast area...more cool showers by Sunday...long term warming may still be a way off...

This post has been edited by idecline: Feb 26 2018, 07:27 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 26 2018, 06:56 PM
Post #237




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...it took awhile to get here...nice front quickly came through from our north this morning...1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 990.13K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the satellite view show the distinct front moving north to south through the State...the low pressure appears to be just south and east of the Bay Area...with trailing moisture and 'wrap-around' instability...thundershowers and windy conditions will continue into the evening...clearing Tuesday...with another even wetter system coming down by Wednesday afternoon...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 719.74K ) Number of downloads: 0

...lots of moisture being drawn into this system now moving towards Victoria Island, BC...heavy rain Weds.?
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 302.83K ) Number of downloads: 0

...this shows the next energy funneling down the West Coast...with adequate moisture and good energy...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 299.05K ) Number of downloads: 0

...by Friday it appears that an elongated trough will continue to bring chances of rain through Friday night...

...one more system may make it's way towards the coast early next week...high pressure still looks stationed a bit to the west of a complete storm blocking position...can we get a 'tropical' hookup as March comes in? unsure.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 27 2018, 08:31 PM
Post #238




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...secondary showers and thunderstorms with hail came through the Bay Area yesterday...Sacramento hail!(see story on AccuWeather News)Sacramento Ice Photo: courtesy Sacramento Fire...AccuWeather story
Attached File  download.jpg ( 68.51K ) Number of downloads: 0

...uh...what is this stuff?
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 964.95K ) Number of downloads: 0

...more on the way from our north for Wednesday night into Thursday...could be heavy rain at times...several feet of snow in the Sierras...low snow levels...trough will hang around through Friday night...secondary low...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 315.48K ) Number of downloads: 0

...another bit of showers on Saturday?...with a large low lurking at about ~40N 150W waiting for directions???
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 307.75K ) Number of downloads: 0


...hopefully the West's awkward 'storm track' maintains hold for awhile...we will take all the rain (and snow) we can get... wink.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Feb 28 2018, 08:12 PM
Post #239




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...here comes the storm...gusty winds, heavy rain and heavy snow into the weekend in the Sierras...2000ft. !
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 939.78K ) Number of downloads: 0

...and the secondary low behind the front is slowly dropping south...looking very nice for more rain into Friday
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 741.54K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the WV loop shows the 'storm track' heading our way...with plenty of moisture...albeit this is still a 'cold' storm...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 293.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


... rolleyes.gif ...look what is lurking off the coast of California on Sunday morning...could this be a wetter storm...are we in for a 'tropical' connection...more on this soon...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 2 2018, 08:50 PM
Post #240




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...over an inch of rain widespread throughout the Bay Area...more to come...more snow in Sierras...wow!
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 983.2K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and the WV shows the rich moisture and development behind this system...more rain next week lurking...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 780.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


...not much time...'El-Lipsis' weather will omit any further gibberish...and let the viewer 'forecast' reign (rain)


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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