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Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Today, 10:19 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Some potential lake enhancement this weekend behind the CF..

QUOTE
This
will be a stronger frontal passage...one that will usher H85 temps
as low as -12c across Lake Ontario and the eastern Lake Ontario
region. While this is not as cold as earlier forecast...it is
certainly cold enough to establish accumulating lake snows southeast
of both lakes. The frontal passage itself should generate a coating
an inch of accumulation across the forecast area...with several
inches looking more plausible for the Chautauqua ridge and from
Wayne County east across the southern half of Oswego county. Have
raised pops to categorical for these areas. The stage will then be
set for what could be a challenging day for travel on Sunday.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


Saturday Night
Rain and snow showers likely before 10pm, then snow showers. Low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday
Snow. High near 33. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Sunday Night
Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253387 · Replies: · Views: 2,662

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:40 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


So we finished with 3.6” in about hr and a half here (3” hr one) in Fulton..Winds switched abruptly from NW-West allowing the band to fly by like a Cold front lol Was hoping for a steady WNW which didn’t happen this time around..
Shows what kind of precip rate u can get closeer to the lake, many areas to my SE picked up 3”-4” overnight, took Fulton between 6am-730 am to record the same..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253329 · Replies: · Views: 2,662

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 08:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Rgem now showing double digits snowfall as well as the 3k nam..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253107 · Replies: · Views: 2,662

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 08:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Crazy band on the 4k nam , sits in place all night..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253104 · Replies: · Views: 2,662

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 11:35 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Nws calling for 8.6” as of right now..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253052 · Replies: · Views: 2,662

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 18 2017, 10:05 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Haha if only, yes that’s the 3k nam showing near 1 1/2’ in Fulton lol Need to see what other SR models start to show as we move closer...

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2253038 · Replies: · Views: 2,662

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 17 2017, 11:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Some nice streamers on the 3k nam

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252987 · Replies: · Views: 2,662

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 14 2017, 07:48 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


0z gfs continues with the WNW theme

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Latest NWS forecast

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252507 · Replies: · Views: 2,662

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 08:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Let’s see how long this last, right In Fulton’s wheelhouse..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252469 · Replies: · Views: 2,662

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 08:31 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Could be a nice one for the tug..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252390 · Replies: · Views: 2,662

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 08:24 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


And it starts

QUOTE
Much colder air will move into the region by Sunday. This may set the
stage for heavy lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario


QUOTE
Behind the cold front, much colder air will move into the region
later Saturday night and Sunday. 850mb temps are not overly cold at
around -9C, but 700mb temps of around -20C and deep synoptic scale
moisture will aid in yielding strong lake induced instability. This
may set the stage for significant lake effect snow east of the
lakes, although the details are never apparent 6 days out.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252388 · Replies: · Views: 2,662

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 13 2017, 04:43 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


If it was a few degrees colder we’d probably pick up a couple inches, snowing pretty good out right now, sticking to colder surfaces..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252373 · Replies: · Views: 6,502

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 10 2017, 11:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


We had our first flakes of the “year” overnight, nice heavy burst mixed with graupel of course but a light coating nonetheless..Oh and it’s pretty chilly out ph34r.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2252119 · Replies: · Views: 3,084

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 8 2017, 07:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Hazardous Weather outlook

QUOTE
An arctic cold front will plow across our forecast area Thursday
evening. Rain showers that will precede the front will give way to a
burst of moderately heavy snow along and immediately behind it. This
could reduce the visibility to a few hundred feet. The heavier
precipitation could also be accompanied by thunder and lightning.

A flash freeze will then be possible in the wake of the front as
temperatures will plummet from the 40s into the 20s. While most
roadways will still be warm enough to prevent an issues...elevated
road surfaces, such as bridges and overpasses...will be particularly
susceptible to flash freezing. Motorists should be prepared for
winter driving conditions Thursday night into Friday morning...
especially southeast of the lakes where accumulating lake effect snow
will become likely


http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?...44#.WgOnhDNOmEc
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2251948 · Replies: · Views: 3,084

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Nov 7 2017, 07:39 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


First flakes look probable!

QUOTE
Latest models continuing to suggest that a band of rain showers will
form along and just ahead of the front as a result of substantial
boost in large scale forcing and moisture convergence. Combined with
mesoscale lake enhancement off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, as
over-lake instability increases. The rain showers will likely change
over to snow under very strong cold air advection before ending
shortly after the frontal passage.

Much colder air, and certainly the coldest so far this young winter
season will plunge across the lower Great Lakes Thursday night and
Friday, with 850 mb temperatures plummeting in the -16C to -18C
range in the west and in the -18C to -20C range across the North
Country. Multiple bands of lake effect snow will evolve in the
northwest flow setup southeast of the lakes as over-lake instability
dramatically increases as Lake delta T`s approach 30C. Moisture
profiles quite dry and will considerably limit lake effect
accumulation potential. At this point, looks like localized minor
accumulations will be possible


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2251691 · Replies: · Views: 3,432

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 30 2017, 07:31 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Wind Gusts continue to go up, max 49mph so far, wouldn’t be surprised to see a 60 pop up in the next hr or two, windy as all heck..
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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2250965 · Replies: · Views: 43,863

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 30 2017, 06:13 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


1st winter wx advisory of the season off Erie, above 1500 feet, 3”-5” expected..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2250957 · Replies: · Views: 43,863

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 30 2017, 06:06 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


What a wicked storm, just lost power for the 2nd time, winds really starting to crank..Nearing 3.5” of rainfall at the airport..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2250955 · Replies: · Views: 43,863

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 30 2017, 12:23 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Just under 2 1/2” of rain so far, absolutely pouring out..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2250936 · Replies: · Views: 43,863

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 22 2017, 07:18 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Kbuf

QUOTE
Looking a little farther ahead, the overall pattern evolution over
the next two weeks will be for a steady turn towards cooler weather
as a longwave trough becomes established over central and eastern
North America. This pattern change will be in part driven by the
poleward movement of the remnants of Typhoon Lan in the western
Pacific by the middle of next week. The resulting influx of
latent/sensible heat and vorticity into the mid latitude westerlies
will strongly amplify the Pacific wavetrain, which in turn will
drive amplification downstream into North America. By the middle of
next week, a strong Aleutian Low will force a ridge to build over
the Gulf of Alaska, which will drift to the west coast of North
America by next weekend. This western ridge is forecast to last into
the first week of November, and aid in forcing a deep longwave
trough over central and eastern North America. This will bring more
fall like weather for the last week of October, and the possibility
of the first wintry weather during the first week of November. Stay
tuned


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249902 · Replies: · Views: 59,779

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 16 2017, 05:00 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Half of the city lost power for about 10 hrs last night thanks to the howling winds, gust to near 70 at the airport..First frost advisory issued for the lake plain for tomorrow night with projected lows hovering around freezing..First flakes should be flying soon, higher elevations mid oct and valleys late October on avg, so no surprise to see some flakes on some of the longer range guidance...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249600 · Replies: · Views: 59,779

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 09:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Quite the drop off from one day to the next, Gfs drops 850 mb temps down to -6c..

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249458 · Replies: · Views: 59,779

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Oct 10 2017, 08:08 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Finished with 1 3/4” over the last couple of days, already surpassing all of September..Looks like another 1/2”-1” on tap for tomorrow..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2249397 · Replies: · Views: 5,955

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Sep 26 2017, 12:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Hit 91 at the airport, 2nd 90 degree day this year..Looks like a 30 degree drop off by Thur/Fri..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2248337 · Replies: · Views: 6,284

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Sep 10 2017, 07:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,268
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Simon Brewer (saddlebunch keys) Video in link..

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https://mobile.twitter.com/simonstormrider?lang=en
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2245173 · Replies: · Views: 1,358,953

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