Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

24 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Jan 15-16 MidAtl / NE storm, Long range threat
PA ROAD DAWG
post Jan 4 2014, 10:40 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,771
Joined: 21-December 12
From: Olyphant, PA
Member No.: 27,372





Saw this on the 06z gfs. Major storm riding up the spine of the apps. Has a 968mb low over Maine

This post has been edited by PA ROAD DAWG: Jan 4 2014, 10:42 AM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PA ROAD DAWG
post Jan 4 2014, 10:44 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,771
Joined: 21-December 12
From: Olyphant, PA
Member No.: 27,372





Looks rather interesting. 12z gfs is rolling so am waiting to see what that shows
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
mtksurfer
post Jan 4 2014, 11:01 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 827
Joined: 2-March 10
From: Long Island
Member No.: 22,192





QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Jan 4 2014, 10:44 AM) *
Looks rather interesting. 12z gfs is rolling so am waiting to see what that shows


Something to look out for. Should have a better handle on it in a few days


--------------------
“All of us have in our veins the exact same percentage of salt in our blood that exists in the ocean, and, therefore, we have salt in our blood, in our sweat, in our tears. We are tied to the ocean. And when we go back to the sea - whether it is to sail or to watch it - we are going back from whence we came.”

- John F. Kennedy
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
east coast storm
post Jan 4 2014, 11:12 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,304
Joined: 20-May 10
From: Melbourne Fla
Member No.: 22,816





QUOTE(mtksurfer @ Jan 4 2014, 11:01 AM) *
Something to look out for. Should have a better handle on it in a few days

According to the 12Z GFS there would be developing low pressure in the
SE states at 12Z Monday 1/13. That low would become a coastal low
east of NJ on OZ Tuesday 1/14. According to the GFS.
The weather could be interesting for the next 7 to 10 days.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
dab719
post Jan 4 2014, 11:16 AM
Post #5




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 183
Joined: 12-February 09
Member No.: 17,556





It's a progressive pattern in this time frame wink.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
plowxpress
post Jan 4 2014, 11:51 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,121
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Nazareth, PA
Member No.: 21,019





QUOTE(dab719 @ Jan 4 2014, 11:16 AM) *
It's a progressive pattern in this time frame wink.gif


Umm, when hasnt it been tongue.gif

I'll take 7" of snow everytime from this pattern. Oh wait...i'm at about 22" (avg 32") this season and its only 1/4 wink.gif progressive= rolleyes.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Jan 4 2014, 11:56 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Too ideal for this far out rolleyes.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_12z/tr12f264.php



--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Jan 4 2014, 12:22 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,171
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





Ha, you beat me to it (was going to wait for another run or two) .. I have been WAITING for this one since November. Based on LRC (using ~51 cycle), this is our Pre-Thanksgiving storm reappearing (which also goes along with the high qpf 10/7 event). BSR supports this to some extent, although (on 12/30) JD suggested ~1/18 for a storm.. close enough??

BSR
http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=301
Attached Image

LRC (Williamsport, PA) Notice the high qpf events of 10/7 and 11/26. This goes along PERFECT with a 1/15 - 1/16 storm. Temps were slightly warm cycle 1, slightly cool cycle 2. Based on BSR (ridging) I'd have to side with seasonable to slightly above average temps for this one.

The pre-Thanksgiving storm tracked right up CNJ.. I think this one end up somewhere between CPA (Apps) - ENJ (obviously I prefer ENJ, for more wintry weather)
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1799690

I also think this will be a high qpf event of 1" + for most in CPA/East Coast, based on LRC history.

Attached Image

This post has been edited by JDClapper: Jan 4 2014, 12:24 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoveNYCSnow
post Jan 4 2014, 12:41 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 27,716
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Westchester County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





QUOTE(dab719 @ Jan 4 2014, 11:16 AM) *
It's a progressive pattern in this time frame wink.gif


It seems we've been in a progressive pattern for as long as I remember and yet most places are doing okay snowwise the past two winters.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PA ROAD DAWG
post Jan 4 2014, 12:54 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,771
Joined: 21-December 12
From: Olyphant, PA
Member No.: 27,372





The 12z gfs shows the piece of energy diving in from canada merging into the coastal low a bit too late and therefore doesn't blow it up like the 6z did. The potential is there and something to keep an eye on sure. I'm sure it'll change a million times too.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
east coast storm
post Jan 4 2014, 01:33 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,304
Joined: 20-May 10
From: Melbourne Fla
Member No.: 22,816





QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Jan 4 2014, 12:54 PM) *
The 12z gfs shows the piece of energy diving in from canada merging into the coastal low a bit too late and therefore doesn't blow it up like the 6z did. The potential is there and something to keep an eye on sure. I'm sure it'll change a million times too.

Yes I agree, it something to keep an eye on. With a couple of weak coastal lows at the
end of next week and next Saturday possibly producing a little wet snow and the
possible storm in this timeframe, it could still be interesting heading towards
mid January.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2014, 02:05 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Phased storm on the Euro - a bit warm at the coastal plain but signs of brief downstream block so this could easily trend colder - this could develop into something IF the rebound to cold temps after the thaw is quicker than it appears ATTM.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PA ROAD DAWG
post Jan 5 2014, 02:17 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,771
Joined: 21-December 12
From: Olyphant, PA
Member No.: 27,372





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 5 2014, 02:05 PM) *
Phased storm on the Euro - a bit warm at the coastal plain but signs of brief downstream block so this could easily trend colder - this could develop into something IF the rebound to cold temps after the thaw is quicker than it appears ATTM.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

Triple phase?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Jan 5 2014, 03:07 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,171
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 5 2014, 02:05 PM) *
Phased storm on the Euro - a bit warm at the coastal plain but signs of brief downstream block so this could easily trend colder - this could develop into something IF the rebound to cold temps after the thaw is quicker than it appears ATTM.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html


This is good to see b/c when I peeks at the 12z GFS it was a disaster. Looked like a storm around the 12th, nothing for this time frame, then another storm on/around the 18th.

LRC, don't let me down now! This was one of my highest confidence forecasts since 11/26! lol

(High qpf storm.. 1/15 - 1/17 time frame)


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Jan 5 2014, 06:20 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,559
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Benchmark coastal is back on the 18z GFS Op (FWIW) Hr 228

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_18z/mrfloop2.html#picture


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
willy211981
post Jan 5 2014, 06:23 PM
Post #16




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 3
Joined: 2-January 14
Member No.: 29,035





The GFS 18z is looking good for this storm on this run, but of course its the 18z and were still too far out. But its still nice to see.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jordan4385
post Jan 5 2014, 06:35 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,525
Joined: 4-February 10
From: Somewhere Near baltimore
Member No.: 21,372





oye. another storm on the gfs and euro 10 days out. wake me up in a week plz!



--------------------
20th anniversary tripple phaser ?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jrdrnt
post Jan 5 2014, 06:56 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,084
Joined: 17-January 08
Member No.: 12,622





Hate to be a downer but rain for MA verbatim with no high pressure to north
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoDelWayne
post Jan 5 2014, 07:01 PM
Post #19




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 306
Joined: 8-February 13
From: Gatlinburg, TN
Member No.: 28,252





Another rainstorm for the Mid-Atlantic guys!


--------------------
[font="Impact"][/font][size="5"][/size]

LoDelWayne
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jordan4385
post Jan 5 2014, 07:05 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,525
Joined: 4-February 10
From: Somewhere Near baltimore
Member No.: 21,372





QUOTE(jrdrnt @ Jan 5 2014, 06:56 PM) *
Hate to be a downer but rain for MA verbatim with no high pressure to north



QUOTE(LoDelWayne @ Jan 5 2014, 07:01 PM) *
Another rainstorm for the Mid-Atlantic guys!


lol 10 days out really? cmon guys ;o

define mid atlantic.
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/...mb&hour=240

This post has been edited by jordan4385: Jan 5 2014, 07:06 PM


--------------------
20th anniversary tripple phaser ?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

24 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 25th April 2018 - 08:39 PM