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> Dec. 22-25 S.ON, S.Que Storm
EOsnowmom
post Dec 16 2013, 08:03 AM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Dec 16 2013, 07:40 AM) *
Ya TWN has us for 25 - 30 cm for Dec.22, but it's TWN, its just entertainment for now... tongue.gif There seems to be 2 camps on the models for this one, either misses us to the south and east, or comes NW and we get mixing again, I'm hoping the solution is right in the middle wink.gif

I saw that eye-candy this morning too! I'm keeping my mouth shut, it's too far out and the kids already think I'm nuts when it comes to weather. LOL

...even if it busts it's still fun watching the tracking of the system.

This post has been edited by EOsnowmom: Dec 16 2013, 08:04 AM
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Aylmer
post Dec 16 2013, 08:26 AM
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Bigmt, would you mind posting the ECMWF for Ottawa?
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snowstormlover
post Dec 16 2013, 08:26 AM
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i think this is the one that is ganna hit us on the 22 if im not wrong the twn says 40-50 cm for us in nova scotia ohmy.gif
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SixthSense
post Dec 16 2013, 08:54 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Dec 16 2013, 07:24 AM) *
I fear that this will trend/shift NW but perhaps depending on where the storm before it tracks that's where the baroclonix zone will setup so IMO we want the one before ot to track further SE as well.



I agree absolutely 100%. With storm #1 paving the way so to speak, its track is so important as to where this storm will track. With HP very much the same for both systems, I suspect, the second follows a similar path as the first. Impressive on the GFS at 156hr, this thing really starts cranking.
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Lake effect
post Dec 16 2013, 09:12 AM
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TWN has Toronto for 10-15cm...that would cover things up nicely for Christmas Day after the thaw.
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Torontoweather
post Dec 16 2013, 09:37 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Dec 16 2013, 07:47 AM) *
CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ    LAT=  43.67 LON=  -79.63 ELE=   568

                                            00Z DEC16
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

SUN 06Z 22-DEC  -1.7     0.6    1015      85      91    0.00     558     546    
SUN 12Z 22-DEC  -2.1     1.7    1005      95     100    0.44     554     550    
SUN 18Z 22-DEC  -0.5     4.5     995      92      89    0.89     548     552    
MON 00Z 23-DEC  -4.9    -4.4    1009      81      82    0.06     544     537


Ice storm for Toronto! ohmy.gif blink.gif


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robv1989
post Dec 16 2013, 10:00 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Dec 16 2013, 09:37 AM) *
Ice storm for Toronto! ohmy.gif blink.gif


have a hard time reading those numbers if that were to be a freezing rain storm how would it compare to the 1998 one.

If it were all snow, based off of a 10:1 ratio that would be 13.9 inches which is over 35 cm.

This post has been edited by robv1989: Dec 16 2013, 10:05 AM
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knorthern_knight
post Dec 16 2013, 11:07 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Dec 16 2013, 07:47 AM) *
CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ    LAT=  43.67 LON=  -79.63 ELE=   568

                                            00Z DEC16
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

SUN 06Z 22-DEC  -1.7     0.6    1015      85      91    0.00     558     546    
SUN 12Z 22-DEC  -2.1     1.7    1005      95     100    0.44     554     550    
SUN 18Z 22-DEC  -0.5     4.5     995      92      89    0.89     548     552    
MON 00Z 23-DEC  -4.9    -4.4    1009      81      82    0.06     544     537

Time for the battle of the models. wink.gif FIM8 shows zippo.

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bigmt
post Dec 16 2013, 11:35 AM
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12z GFS @ hour 138:

Attached File  gfs_namer_138_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.11K ) Number of downloads: 3


Hour 144:

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Hour 156:

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Hour 165:

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weatherman 23
post Dec 16 2013, 11:39 AM
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12Z GFS doesn't have much
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SixthSense
post Dec 16 2013, 11:52 AM
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Wow....did that thing ever amp up on this run. Just overwhelms HP and moves much further north..........generally not what we want. Let the model mayhem begin!!!! blink.gif
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Torontoweather
post Dec 16 2013, 12:11 PM
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The 2M temps on the GFS are pretty scary, could be an ice storm somewhere.


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SixthSense
post Dec 16 2013, 12:34 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Dec 16 2013, 12:11 PM) *
The 2M temps on the GFS are pretty scary, could be an ice storm somewhere.



Does this look to anyone else like a classic "panhandle hook" storm....thoughts??? dry.gif
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wx140
post Dec 16 2013, 12:48 PM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Dec 16 2013, 12:11 PM) *
The 2M temps on the GFS are pretty scary, could be an ice storm somewhere.

Yeah was just looking at that. This could be a lot of ice. 12z GGEM shows a big icestorm for us.
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bigmt
post Dec 16 2013, 12:54 PM
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Accuweather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...delays/21048826

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Henry - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...eekend/21050990

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QUOTE(wx140 @ Dec 16 2013, 12:48 PM) *
12z GGEM shows a big icestorm for us.


Hour 132:

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Hour 144:

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Hour 156:

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bigmt
post Dec 16 2013, 01:19 PM
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12z GEFS @ hour 150:

Attached File  f150.gif ( 141.74K ) Number of downloads: 5
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bigmt
post Dec 16 2013, 01:25 PM
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QUOTE(Aylmer @ Dec 16 2013, 08:26 AM) *
Bigmt, would you mind posting the ECMWF for Ottawa?


Sorry, I missed this. I'll have it from the 12z shortly.
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Ottawa blizzard
post Dec 16 2013, 01:49 PM
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People on the Americanwx forums are all talking about the latest Euro. It delivers a huge snowstorm to Toronto and Ontario in general next weekend.
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cards101
post Dec 16 2013, 01:51 PM
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Wow 12z Euro

This post has been edited by cards101: Dec 16 2013, 01:51 PM
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Ryan45
post Dec 16 2013, 01:50 PM
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QUOTE(cards101 @ Dec 16 2013, 01:51 PM) *
Wow 12z Euro


Holy friggin *bleep*.....


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