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> Jan 15th-18th clipper system
SNOWBOB11
post Jan 13 2018, 03:54 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Member No.: 28,061





Figured Id start a thread for the clipper system next week. Not a very strong system but looks like there might be some lake enhancement around the GTA area so a few extra cms arent out of the question.

Ive extended the date range as it looks like it might gain some strength as it moves into Atlantic Canada and could give some messy weather.

Heres some models for Ontario

12z GFS
Attached File  8E416D93_A7B5_4F60_B810_67601DD7F98B.png ( 179.07K ) Number of downloads: 1


12z ECMWF
Attached File  EDAD8C1A_DF13_4C28_9917_AEBA45A6ED21.png ( 91.46K ) Number of downloads: 1


18z 12k NAM
Attached File  0515D893_13DF_4D8A_954B_89161C384155.png ( 161.59K ) Number of downloads: 1


18z NAM snowfall
Attached File  B7B4DC39_6DA1_4483_A3B2_9CB6DD4A3B6D.gif ( 41.61K ) Number of downloads: 10
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+Quote Post
SNOWBOB11
post Jan 13 2018, 04:02 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Heres a look at the 18z 12k NAM snowfall without ratios

Attached File  1F14DCE4_A87D_4007_AA92_3F7FEC70A369.png ( 134.37K ) Number of downloads: 5


And heres a look at the system as it moves into Atlantic Canada

Attached File  2BF98074_E9BA_4B15_96A9_FDADA82058CA.png ( 213.34K ) Number of downloads: 2
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+Quote Post
knorthern_knight
post Jan 13 2018, 08:13 PM
Post #3




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From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





12Z GFS text shows mostly clipperish amounts of 2 to 3 inches (5 to 8 cm) except Quebec City with only 1.4 inch (under 4 cm).

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   51 01/15 15Z   13      9    0.01 -SN     13     12    0.1  0.01    0.1
   54 01/15 18Z   16     14    0.02 -SN     16     12    0.3  0.03    0.4
   57 01/15 21Z   20     18    0.03 -SN     20     16    0.5  0.06    0.9
   60 01/16 00Z   21     20    0.03 -SN     21     16    0.5  0.09    1.4
   63 01/16 03Z   23     22    0.04 -SN     23     21    0.6  0.13    2.0
   66 01/16 06Z   23     22    0.01 -SN     24     21    0.3  0.14    2.3
   69 01/16 09Z   18     16    0.01 -SN     23     18    0.1  0.15    2.4
   72 01/16 12Z   14     12    0.01 -SN     23     14    0.0  0.16
   75 01/16 15Z   12     10    0.01 -SN     14     12    0.1  0.17    0.1
   78 01/16 18Z   15     13    0.01 -SN     15     12    0.1  0.18    0.2
   81 01/16 21Z   16     15    0.01 -SN     16     15    0.3  0.19    0.5
   84 01/17 00Z   16     15    0.01 -SN     16     15    0.3  0.20    0.8
   87 01/17 03Z   15     14    0.01 -SN     16     15    0.1  0.21    0.9
   90 01/17 06Z   11      9    0.00 -SN     16     11    0.0
   93 01/17 09Z   10      9    0.00         11     10    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   54 01/15 18Z   13     10    0.02 -SN     13     10    0.3  0.02    0.3
   57 01/15 21Z   15     14    0.03 -SN     15     13    0.4  0.05    0.7
   60 01/16 00Z   16     15    0.03 -SN     16     13    0.6  0.08    1.3
   63 01/16 03Z   19     18    0.02 -SN     19     16    0.4  0.10    1.7
   66 01/16 06Z   22     22    0.02 -SN     22     16    0.4  0.12    2.1
   69 01/16 09Z   21     19    0.00 -SN     23     21    0.0
   72 01/16 12Z   17     14    0.00 -SN     23     17    0.0
   75 01/16 15Z   15     13    0.01 -SN     16     15    0.2  0.01    0.2
   78 01/16 18Z   19     16    0.01 -SN     19     15    0.0  0.02
   81 01/16 21Z   20     15    0.01 -SN     20     19    0.3  0.03    0.3
   84 01/17 00Z   14     12    0.00 -SN     20     14    0.0
   87 01/17 03Z   11      9    0.00         14     11    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   54 01/15 18Z   16     14    0.02 -SN     16      9    0.3  0.02    0.3
   57 01/15 21Z   19     18    0.04 -SN     19     16    0.7  0.06    1.0
   60 01/16 00Z   21     20    0.04 -SN     21     16    0.6  0.10    1.6
   63 01/16 03Z   24     24    0.05 -SN     24     21    0.8  0.15    2.4
   66 01/16 06Z   24     23    0.04 -SN     27     21    0.4  0.19    2.8
   69 01/16 09Z   21     18    0.00         24     21    0.0
   72 01/16 12Z   16     14    0.00         24     16    0.0
   75 01/16 15Z   16     13    0.00         17     15    0.0
   78 01/16 18Z   17     14    0.01 -SN     17     15    0.0  0.01
   81 01/16 21Z   16     14    0.01 -SN     17     16    0.1  0.02    0.1
   84 01/17 00Z   14     12    0.00 -SN     17     14    0.0
   87 01/17 03Z   13     12    0.00 -SN     14     12    0.0
   90 01/17 06Z   12     11    0.00 -SN     15     12    0.0
   93 01/17 09Z   10      8    0.00         12     10    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   54 01/15 18Z   15     10    0.01 -SN     16     15    0.0  0.01
   57 01/15 21Z   17     15    0.03 -SN     17     15    0.5  0.04    0.5
   60 01/16 00Z   21     19    0.02 -SN     21     15    0.4  0.06    0.9
   63 01/16 03Z   24     22    0.01 -SN     24     21    0.2  0.07    1.1
   66 01/16 06Z   26     24    0.03 -SN     26     21    0.4  0.10    1.5
   69 01/16 09Z   25     22    0.01         27     25    0.1  0.11    1.6
   72 01/16 12Z   21     18    0.00         27     21    0.0
   75 01/16 15Z   20     16    0.00 -SN     21     20    0.1          0.1
   78 01/16 18Z   21     17    0.01 -SN     22     19    0.1  0.01    0.2
   81 01/16 21Z   22     17    0.01 -SN     23     21    0.1  0.02    0.3
   84 01/17 00Z   18     14    0.00 -SN     23     18    0.0
   87 01/17 03Z   15     11    0.00         18     15    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   63 01/16 03Z    3      2    0.02 -SN      3      0    0.4  0.02    0.4
   66 01/16 06Z    7      6    0.03 -SN      7      0    0.5  0.05    0.9
   69 01/16 09Z    9      8    0.03 -SN      9      7    0.5  0.08    1.4
   72 01/16 12Z    9      9    0.02 -SN      9      7    0.3  0.10    1.7
   75 01/16 15Z   12     11    0.03 -SN     12      9    0.6  0.13    2.3
   78 01/16 18Z   17     16    0.02 -SN     17      9    0.5  0.15    2.8
   81 01/16 21Z   18     17    0.01 -SN     19     17    0.2  0.16    3.0
   84 01/17 00Z   11     10    0.00 -SN     19     11    0.0
   87 01/17 03Z   13     12    0.00 -SN     13     11    0.0
   90 01/17 06Z   11     11    0.00 -SN     13     10    0.0
   93 01/17 09Z   11     10    0.00         12     10    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL Montr�al-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   69 01/16 09Z    7      6    0.02 -SN      7      6    0.5  0.02    0.5
   72 01/16 12Z    7      6    0.02 -SN      7      6    0.5  0.04    1.0
   75 01/16 15Z   10      9    0.02 -SN     10      6    0.3  0.06    1.3
   78 01/16 18Z   16     15    0.02 -SN     16      6    0.3  0.08    1.6
   81 01/16 21Z   17     17    0.01 -SN     18     16    0.1  0.09    1.7
   84 01/17 00Z   11     10    0.01 -SN     18     11    0.3  0.10    2.0
   87 01/17 03Z    8      7    0.00         10      8    0.0
   90 01/17 06Z    7      5    0.00         11      5    0.0
   93 01/17 09Z    9      8    0.01 -SN      9      8    0.2  0.01    0.2
   96 01/17 12Z    7      7    0.00          9      7    0.0
   99 01/17 15Z   15     13    0.00 -SN     15      8    0.0
  102 01/17 18Z   18     16    0.00 -SN     18      8    0.0
  105 01/17 21Z   16     14    0.00         18     16    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB Qu�bec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   75 01/16 15Z    9      6    0.00 -SN      9      2    0.0
   78 01/16 18Z   16     13    0.01 -SN     16      2    0.0  0.01
   81 01/16 21Z   15     13    0.01 -SN     16     15    0.3  0.02    0.3
   84 01/17 00Z   13     12    0.01 -SN     16     13    0.3  0.03    0.6
   87 01/17 03Z   12     11    0.01 -SN     13     12    0.1  0.04    0.7
   90 01/17 06Z   13     12    0.02 -SN     14     10    0.4  0.06    1.1
   93 01/17 09Z   14     13    0.01 -SN     14     12    0.3  0.07    1.4
   96 01/17 12Z   11     10    0.01 -SN     14     11    0.0  0.08
   99 01/17 15Z   14     13    0.00 -SN     14     10    0.0
  102 01/17 18Z   16     13    0.00 -SN     16     10    0.0
  105 01/17 21Z   12     11    0.00 -SN     16     12    0.0
  108 01/18 00Z    4      4    0.00         16      4    0.0
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+Quote Post
travis3000
post Jan 13 2018, 08:41 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 3,959
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





A nice little 2-4cm dusting before the next warmup begins on the weekend.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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+Quote Post
markj138
post Jan 14 2018, 12:26 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





0Z GFS has around 5 cm for the GTA

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_10.png ( 199.94K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_14.png ( 146.61K ) Number of downloads: 1
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+Quote Post
markj138
post Jan 14 2018, 12:28 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





0Z Nam 12k

Attached File  namconus_ref_frzn_us_42.png ( 164.2K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_27.png ( 133.4K ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by markj138: Jan 14 2018, 12:30 AM
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+Quote Post
Stl
post Jan 14 2018, 01:24 AM
Post #7




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Group: Member
Posts: 298
Joined: 3-December 12
From: Montreal (Saint-Leonard)
Member No.: 27,276





QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Jan 13 2018, 08:13 PM) *
12Z GFS text shows mostly clipperish amounts of 2 to 3 inches (5 to 8 cm) except Quebec City with only 1.4 inch (under 4 cm).

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   51 01/15 15Z   13      9    0.01 -SN     13     12    0.1  0.01    0.1
   54 01/15 18Z   16     14    0.02 -SN     16     12    0.3  0.03    0.4
   57 01/15 21Z   20     18    0.03 -SN     20     16    0.5  0.06    0.9
   60 01/16 00Z   21     20    0.03 -SN     21     16    0.5  0.09    1.4
   63 01/16 03Z   23     22    0.04 -SN     23     21    0.6  0.13    2.0
   66 01/16 06Z   23     22    0.01 -SN     24     21    0.3  0.14    2.3
   69 01/16 09Z   18     16    0.01 -SN     23     18    0.1  0.15    2.4
   72 01/16 12Z   14     12    0.01 -SN     23     14    0.0  0.16
   75 01/16 15Z   12     10    0.01 -SN     14     12    0.1  0.17    0.1
   78 01/16 18Z   15     13    0.01 -SN     15     12    0.1  0.18    0.2
   81 01/16 21Z   16     15    0.01 -SN     16     15    0.3  0.19    0.5
   84 01/17 00Z   16     15    0.01 -SN     16     15    0.3  0.20    0.8
   87 01/17 03Z   15     14    0.01 -SN     16     15    0.1  0.21    0.9
   90 01/17 06Z   11      9    0.00 -SN     16     11    0.0
   93 01/17 09Z   10      9    0.00         11     10    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   54 01/15 18Z   13     10    0.02 -SN     13     10    0.3  0.02    0.3
   57 01/15 21Z   15     14    0.03 -SN     15     13    0.4  0.05    0.7
   60 01/16 00Z   16     15    0.03 -SN     16     13    0.6  0.08    1.3
   63 01/16 03Z   19     18    0.02 -SN     19     16    0.4  0.10    1.7
   66 01/16 06Z   22     22    0.02 -SN     22     16    0.4  0.12    2.1
   69 01/16 09Z   21     19    0.00 -SN     23     21    0.0
   72 01/16 12Z   17     14    0.00 -SN     23     17    0.0
   75 01/16 15Z   15     13    0.01 -SN     16     15    0.2  0.01    0.2
   78 01/16 18Z   19     16    0.01 -SN     19     15    0.0  0.02
   81 01/16 21Z   20     15    0.01 -SN     20     19    0.3  0.03    0.3
   84 01/17 00Z   14     12    0.00 -SN     20     14    0.0
   87 01/17 03Z   11      9    0.00         14     11    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   54 01/15 18Z   16     14    0.02 -SN     16      9    0.3  0.02    0.3
   57 01/15 21Z   19     18    0.04 -SN     19     16    0.7  0.06    1.0
   60 01/16 00Z   21     20    0.04 -SN     21     16    0.6  0.10    1.6
   63 01/16 03Z   24     24    0.05 -SN     24     21    0.8  0.15    2.4
   66 01/16 06Z   24     23    0.04 -SN     27     21    0.4  0.19    2.8
   69 01/16 09Z   21     18    0.00         24     21    0.0
   72 01/16 12Z   16     14    0.00         24     16    0.0
   75 01/16 15Z   16     13    0.00         17     15    0.0
   78 01/16 18Z   17     14    0.01 -SN     17     15    0.0  0.01
   81 01/16 21Z   16     14    0.01 -SN     17     16    0.1  0.02    0.1
   84 01/17 00Z   14     12    0.00 -SN     17     14    0.0
   87 01/17 03Z   13     12    0.00 -SN     14     12    0.0
   90 01/17 06Z   12     11    0.00 -SN     15     12    0.0
   93 01/17 09Z   10      8    0.00         12     10    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   54 01/15 18Z   15     10    0.01 -SN     16     15    0.0  0.01
   57 01/15 21Z   17     15    0.03 -SN     17     15    0.5  0.04    0.5
   60 01/16 00Z   21     19    0.02 -SN     21     15    0.4  0.06    0.9
   63 01/16 03Z   24     22    0.01 -SN     24     21    0.2  0.07    1.1
   66 01/16 06Z   26     24    0.03 -SN     26     21    0.4  0.10    1.5
   69 01/16 09Z   25     22    0.01         27     25    0.1  0.11    1.6
   72 01/16 12Z   21     18    0.00         27     21    0.0
   75 01/16 15Z   20     16    0.00 -SN     21     20    0.1          0.1
   78 01/16 18Z   21     17    0.01 -SN     22     19    0.1  0.01    0.2
   81 01/16 21Z   22     17    0.01 -SN     23     21    0.1  0.02    0.3
   84 01/17 00Z   18     14    0.00 -SN     23     18    0.0
   87 01/17 03Z   15     11    0.00         18     15    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   63 01/16 03Z    3      2    0.02 -SN      3      0    0.4  0.02    0.4
   66 01/16 06Z    7      6    0.03 -SN      7      0    0.5  0.05    0.9
   69 01/16 09Z    9      8    0.03 -SN      9      7    0.5  0.08    1.4
   72 01/16 12Z    9      9    0.02 -SN      9      7    0.3  0.10    1.7
   75 01/16 15Z   12     11    0.03 -SN     12      9    0.6  0.13    2.3
   78 01/16 18Z   17     16    0.02 -SN     17      9    0.5  0.15    2.8
   81 01/16 21Z   18     17    0.01 -SN     19     17    0.2  0.16    3.0
   84 01/17 00Z   11     10    0.00 -SN     19     11    0.0
   87 01/17 03Z   13     12    0.00 -SN     13     11    0.0
   90 01/17 06Z   11     11    0.00 -SN     13     10    0.0
   93 01/17 09Z   11     10    0.00         12     10    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL Montr�al-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   69 01/16 09Z    7      6    0.02 -SN      7      6    0.5  0.02    0.5
   72 01/16 12Z    7      6    0.02 -SN      7      6    0.5  0.04    1.0
   75 01/16 15Z   10      9    0.02 -SN     10      6    0.3  0.06    1.3
   78 01/16 18Z   16     15    0.02 -SN     16      6    0.3  0.08    1.6
   81 01/16 21Z   17     17    0.01 -SN     18     16    0.1  0.09    1.7
   84 01/17 00Z   11     10    0.01 -SN     18     11    0.3  0.10    2.0
   87 01/17 03Z    8      7    0.00         10      8    0.0
   90 01/17 06Z    7      5    0.00         11      5    0.0
   93 01/17 09Z    9      8    0.01 -SN      9      8    0.2  0.01    0.2
   96 01/17 12Z    7      7    0.00          9      7    0.0
   99 01/17 15Z   15     13    0.00 -SN     15      8    0.0
  102 01/17 18Z   18     16    0.00 -SN     18      8    0.0
  105 01/17 21Z   16     14    0.00         18     16    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB Qu�bec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 13JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   75 01/16 15Z    9      6    0.00 -SN      9      2    0.0
   78 01/16 18Z   16     13    0.01 -SN     16      2    0.0  0.01
   81 01/16 21Z   15     13    0.01 -SN     16     15    0.3  0.02    0.3
   84 01/17 00Z   13     12    0.01 -SN     16     13    0.3  0.03    0.6
   87 01/17 03Z   12     11    0.01 -SN     13     12    0.1  0.04    0.7
   90 01/17 06Z   13     12    0.02 -SN     14     10    0.4  0.06    1.1
   93 01/17 09Z   14     13    0.01 -SN     14     12    0.3  0.07    1.4
   96 01/17 12Z   11     10    0.01 -SN     14     11    0.0  0.08
   99 01/17 15Z   14     13    0.00 -SN     14     10    0.0
  102 01/17 18Z   16     13    0.00 -SN     16     10    0.0
  105 01/17 21Z   12     11    0.00 -SN     16     12    0.0
  108 01/18 00Z    4      4    0.00         16      4    0.0


Hi knorthern_knight , does these outputs take in consideration the ratio ?
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knorthern_knight
post Jan 14 2018, 02:11 AM
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QUOTE(Stl @ Jan 14 2018, 01:24 AM) *
Hi knorthern_knight , does these outputs take in consideration the ratio ?

Yes. Note that the cumulative "SNOW" to "PCPN" is not generally 10 to 1. Neither are the 3-hourly amounts "Snowfall" to "TPrcp".
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 14 2018, 09:19 AM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 14 2018, 12:26 AM) *
0Z GFS has around 5 cm for the GTA

Id take that and run from this somewhat moisture starved clipper. Several models have that slightly higher total amount right around the GTA so well see how that turns out.
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markj138
post Jan 14 2018, 03:44 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 14 2018, 09:19 AM) *
Id take that and run from this somewhat moisture starved clipper. Several models have that slightly higher total amount right around the GTA so well see how that turns out.


18Z 12k nam.......it is weak buts its still there

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_24.png ( 141.56K ) Number of downloads: 5
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shane o mac
post Jan 14 2018, 05:58 PM
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Look to get 15-20 cm of snow here , with gusts to 50 km not to bad
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markj138
post Jan 14 2018, 07:33 PM
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18Z RGEM with a little different look

Attached File  rgem_asnow_neus_54.png ( 142.25K ) Number of downloads: 4
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markj138
post Jan 14 2018, 07:38 PM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Jan 14 2018, 05:58 PM) *
Look to get 15-20 cm of snow here , with gusts to 50 km not to bad


Its looking good for you guys enjoy!
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 14 2018, 07:40 PM
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There looks to be a chance for some extra accumulation from lake enhancement in advance of the clipper moving through the region around the east end of the GTA. Heres the 18z 3k NAM showing the very narrow band of heavier snow around the GTA.

Attached File  8B75A815_D210_49B8_92E0_6039B91B6CC9.png ( 147.08K ) Number of downloads: 4


18z RGEM has a even stronger look to the band but has it more east this run.

Attached File  67681C9E_8B71_4F4B_BD79_60285D6AC69C.png ( 142.25K ) Number of downloads: 4
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 14 2018, 07:41 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 14 2018, 07:33 PM) *
18Z RGEM with a little different look


Beat me to it again lol. I got to work of my slow posting speed.
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markj138
post Jan 14 2018, 07:50 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 14 2018, 07:41 PM) *
Beat me to it again lol. I got to work of my slow posting speed.


laugh.gif we are the only ones interested in this one
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 14 2018, 07:53 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 14 2018, 07:50 PM) *
laugh.gif we are the only ones interested in this one

Yeah, I think everyone is frustrated over the last storm that went south and they cant bother with this one lol.



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markj138
post Jan 14 2018, 08:01 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 14 2018, 07:53 PM) *
Yeah, I think everyone is frustrated over the last storm that went south and they can’t bother with this one lol.


That one is going to leave a mark for awhile,when this winter is over i think we will be looking back at that one saying it could have made a huge difference to our snow totals.

oh & shane o mac is interested in this one too!

This post has been edited by markj138: Jan 14 2018, 08:01 PM
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snowgeek93
post Jan 14 2018, 08:36 PM
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I'll just be happy to get our snow cover back here. Should hold until the weekend! smile.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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snowgeek93
post Jan 14 2018, 08:44 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 14 2018, 08:01 PM) *
That one is going to leave a mark for awhile,when this winter is over i think we will be looking back at that one saying it could have made a huge difference to our snow totals.

oh & shane o mac is interested in this one too!

A big one could still be in the cards for later in the winter. Too soon for flag waving.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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