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> Jan 15th-18th clipper system
plowguy
post Jan 14 2018, 09:07 PM
Post #21




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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 14 2018, 07:53 PM) *
Yeah, I think everyone is frustrated over the last storm that went south and they canít bother with this one lol.

Im in on this one. looks like a nice light plow!!!!!
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markj138
post Jan 14 2018, 09:32 PM
Post #22




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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 14 2018, 08:44 PM) *
A big one could still be in the cards for later in the winter. Too soon for flag waving.


No flag waving yet but it is ready near by,lets see where we stand the end of January.
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travis3000
post Jan 14 2018, 09:45 PM
Post #23




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Looks like this could be a 5-10cm event up this way if the RGEM is to be believed. I'm down for it!


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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knorthern_knight
post Jan 14 2018, 09:57 PM
Post #24




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Jan 14 12Z text forecast continues to show a boring clipper. There's also another system showing up on the 19th/20th and possibly later. It goes beyond the end of the forecast period (12Z of the 20th) so I simply don't know. Temperatures are rising to almost 32F by then, so it doesn't look good.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z 14JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   30 01/15 18Z   16     13    0.01 -SN     16     10    0.3  0.01    0.3
   33 01/15 21Z   18     16    0.04 -SN     18     16    0.7  0.05    1.0
   36 01/16 00Z   18     17    0.04 -SN     18     16    0.6  0.09    1.6
   39 01/16 03Z   20     19    0.02 -SN     20     18    0.3  0.11    1.9
   42 01/16 06Z   23     22    0.02 -SN     23     18    0.3  0.13    2.2
   45 01/16 09Z   22     20    0.01 -SN     23     21    0.1  0.14    2.3
   48 01/16 12Z   13     11    0.00 -SN     23     13    0.0
   51 01/16 15Z   13     11    0.00 -SN     13     13    0.0
   54 01/16 18Z   16     14    0.01 -SN     16     13    0.1  0.01    0.1
   57 01/16 21Z   19     18    0.02 -SN     19     16    0.3  0.03    0.4
   60 01/17 00Z   19     18    0.01 -SN     20     16    0.3  0.04    0.7
   63 01/17 03Z   14     12    0.00         18     14    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 14JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   33 01/15 21Z   15     12    0.01 -SN     15     15    0.3  0.01    0.3
   36 01/16 00Z   16     15    0.05 -SN     16     14    1.0  0.06    1.3
   39 01/16 03Z   19     18    0.03 -SN     19     16    0.3  0.09    1.6
   42 01/16 06Z   20     19    0.01 -SN     20     16    0.4  0.10    2.0
   45 01/16 09Z   21     21    0.01 -SN     22     20    0.0  0.11
   48 01/16 12Z   18     16    0.00 -SN     22     18    0.0
   51 01/16 15Z   14     11    0.00         18     14    0.0
   54 01/16 18Z   18     14    0.00 -SN     18     14    0.0
   57 01/16 21Z   18     15    0.01 -SN     18     17    0.3  0.01    0.3
   60 01/17 00Z   17     15    0.00 -SN     19     17    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 14JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   33 01/15 21Z   18     14    0.01 -SN     18     16    0.3  0.01    0.3
   36 01/16 00Z   19     17    0.03 -SN     19     16    0.5  0.04    0.8
   39 01/16 03Z   22     21    0.03 -SN     22     19    0.4  0.07    1.2
   42 01/16 06Z   24     23    0.03 -SN     24     19    0.5  0.10    1.7
   45 01/16 09Z   23     22    0.01 -SN     26     22    0.1  0.11    1.8
   48 01/16 12Z   18     15    0.00 -SN     26     18    0.0
   51 01/16 15Z   15     11    0.00         18     14    0.0
   54 01/16 18Z   17     13    0.00 -SN     18     14    0.0
   57 01/16 21Z   16     14    0.00 -SN     17     16    0.1          0.1
   60 01/17 00Z   15     13    0.00         17     15    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z 14JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   36 01/16 00Z   22     19    0.03 -SN     22     17    0.4  0.03    0.4
   39 01/16 03Z   23     21    0.04 -SN     23     22    0.7  0.07    1.1
   42 01/16 06Z   23     21    0.01 -SN     23     22    0.1  0.08    1.2
   45 01/16 09Z   25     23    0.02 -SN     25     23    0.3  0.10    1.5
   48 01/16 12Z   24     22    0.01 -SN     26     23    0.1  0.11    1.6
   51 01/16 15Z   19     15    0.00         24     19    0.0
   54 01/16 18Z   20     14    0.00         24     19    0.0
   57 01/16 21Z   21     17    0.01 -SN     21     20    0.1  0.01    0.1
   60 01/17 00Z   21     17    0.00 -SN     21     20    0.1          0.2
   63 01/17 03Z   18     15    0.00         20     17    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run: 12Z 14JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   42 01/16 06Z    7      6    0.01          7      4    0.1  0.01    0.1
   45 01/16 09Z    8      6    0.02 -SN      8      7    0.5  0.03    0.6
   48 01/16 12Z    7      6    0.02 -SN      8      7    0.4  0.05    1.0
   51 01/16 15Z   10      8    0.01 -SN     10      7    0.2  0.06    1.2
   54 01/16 18Z   14     13    0.02 -SN     14      7    0.4  0.08    1.6
   57 01/16 21Z   15     15    0.03 -SN     16     14    0.5  0.11    2.1
   60 01/17 00Z   12     12    0.01 -SN     16     12    0.2  0.12    2.3
   63 01/17 03Z   11     11    0.00         12      9    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL MontrÔŅĹal-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 14JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   57 01/16 21Z   14     12    0.01 -SN     14     13    0.1  0.01    0.1
   60 01/17 00Z   13     12    0.01 -SN     14     13    0.1  0.02    0.2
   63 01/17 03Z   14     13    0.00 -SN     14     13    0.0
   66 01/17 06Z   14     14    0.01 -SN     14     12    0.0  0.01
   69 01/17 09Z   10      9    0.00 -SN     13     10    0.0
   72 01/17 12Z   10      9    0.01 -SN     13      8    0.0  0.01
   75 01/17 15Z   16     14    0.01 -SN     16     10    0.0  0.02
   78 01/17 18Z   21     17    0.00 -SN     21     10    0.0
   81 01/17 21Z   19     16    0.00         21     19    0.0
   84 01/18 00Z   16     14    0.00         21     16    0.0
   87 01/18 03Z   16     13    0.00         16     15    0.0
   90 01/18 06Z   18     15    0.01 -SN     18     15    0.3  0.01    0.3
   93 01/18 09Z   19     15    0.01 -SN     19     18    0.1  0.02    0.4
   96 01/18 12Z   19     14    0.00 -SN     19     18    0.0
   99 01/18 15Z   23     19    0.02 -SN     23     19    0.3  0.02    0.3
  102 01/18 18Z   28     23    0.01 -SN     28     19    0.2  0.03    0.5
  105 01/18 21Z   28     24    0.01 -SN     28     28    0.2  0.04    0.7
  108 01/19 00Z   26     23    0.02 -SN     28     26    0.3  0.06    1.0
  111 01/19 03Z   25     22    0.01 -SN     26     25    0.2  0.07    1.2
  114 01/19 06Z   25     21    0.01 -SN     26     25    0.0  0.08

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB QuÔŅĹbec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run: 12Z 14JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   63 01/17 03Z   11      9    0.00 -SN     11     10    0.0
   66 01/17 06Z   12     10    0.00 -SN     12     10    0.0
   69 01/17 09Z   11     10    0.00 -SN     12     11    0.0
   72 01/17 12Z   12     11    0.01 -SN     13     11    0.1  0.01    0.1
   75 01/17 15Z   15     13    0.00 -SN     15     11    0.0
   78 01/17 18Z   17     13    0.01 -SN     17     11    0.0  0.01
   81 01/17 21Z   14     12    0.00 -SN     17     14    0.0
   84 01/18 00Z   13     12    0.01 -SN     17     12    0.0  0.01
   87 01/18 03Z   13     12    0.01 -SN     14     12    0.2  0.02    0.2
   90 01/18 06Z   12     11    0.01 -SN     14     12    0.2  0.03    0.4
   93 01/18 09Z   14     13    0.02 -SN     14     12    0.5  0.05    0.9
   96 01/18 12Z   16     14    0.03 -SN     16     12    0.5  0.08    1.4
   99 01/18 15Z   19     16    0.02 -SN     19     16    0.5  0.10    1.9
  102 01/18 18Z   23     18    0.02 -SN     23     16    0.3  0.12    2.2
  105 01/18 21Z   23     18    0.01 -SN     24     23    0.0  0.13
  108 01/19 00Z   22     17    0.00 -SN     24     22    0.0
  111 01/19 03Z   19     17    0.00         22     19    0.0
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 15 2018, 08:51 AM
Post #25




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Member No.: 28,061





06z RGEM still shows that band right around the east end of the GTA. Itís a very small band but where it sets up someone will probably get a quick 8-10cm out of it. 06z 3k NAM has the band a bit more to the west FWIW.

06z RGEM
Attached File  A93D8378_1A44_4435_8552_9EAE71A6D8A3.png ( 146.47K ) Number of downloads: 9
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snowgeek93
post Jan 15 2018, 08:55 AM
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Snow coming down out there this morning. Ground is all white again! smile.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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plowguy
post Jan 15 2018, 09:12 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 15 2018, 08:51 AM) *
06z RGEM still shows that band right around the east end of the GTA. Itís a very small band but where it sets up someone will probably get a quick 8-10cm out of it. 06z 3k NAM has the band a bit more to the west FWIW.

06z RGEM
Attached File  A93D8378_1A44_4435_8552_9EAE71A6D8A3.png ( 146.47K ) Number of downloads: 9

This cuts me to about an inch? That's not a plow. Should I be expecting more??? If anyone has a minute smile.gif
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puttin
post Jan 15 2018, 09:38 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 15 2018, 08:55 AM) *
Snow coming down out there this morning. Ground is all white again! smile.gif


Been snowing since I got up at 6:30 and was blowing quite hard and moderate snow. Calling for 5 cm this morning and it's still coming down at a nice rate. A good few centimeters down and still snowing now. Lake Effect snow off Lake Ontario Environment Canada says which I don't recall Newmarket ever getting from that direction!
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Jan 15 2018, 11:13 AM
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I recall seeing lake effect many years ago off lake Ontario come all the way to the Barrie area.

It does happen just not very often do you have winds from south east that are cold enough to support. But it definitely does happen, wont complain at all.

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puttin
post Jan 15 2018, 11:20 AM
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QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Jan 15 2018, 11:13 AM) *
I recall seeing lake effect many years ago off lake Ontario come all the way to the Barrie area.

It does happen just not very often do you have winds from south east that are cold enough to support. But it definitely does happen, wont complain at all.

Still snowing here in Aurora. Anybody know what time the clipper is coming to town? How come some of them (like the Christmas clipper) have more moisture than others? I read that this clipper is supposed to intensify and hit Atlantic Canada a lot harder; I guess because of the ocean's effect but don't the Great Lakes do the same?
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 15 2018, 11:40 AM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 15 2018, 09:12 AM) *
This cuts me to about an inch? That's not a plow. Should I be expecting more??? If anyone has a minute smile.gif


I think your a bit outside of where the band might get to. Itís a fairly weak disturbance if your not getting any of the lake enhancement. Still could be a few to maybe 4 or 5cm for you from the clipper IMO.


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plowguy
post Jan 15 2018, 11:49 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 15 2018, 11:40 AM) *
I think your a bit outside of where the band might get to. Itís a fairly weak disturbance if your not getting any of the lake enhancement. Still could be a few to maybe 4 or 5cm for you from the clipper IMO.

Great, thanks! That's a plow. Have not had a flake yet today in Brantford.
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Apocalypse
post Jan 15 2018, 12:16 PM
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Snowing pretty good since the morning here.
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puttin
post Jan 15 2018, 12:54 PM
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QUOTE(Apocalypse @ Jan 15 2018, 12:16 PM) *
Snowing pretty good since the morning here.

Has not stopped since I got up at 6:30. Lake effect snow. And yep, it is coming down pretty good.
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Apocalypse
post Jan 15 2018, 01:54 PM
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QUOTE(puttin @ Jan 15 2018, 12:54 PM) *
Has not stopped since I got up at 6:30. Lake effect snow. And yep, it is coming down pretty good.


I think I am just on the edge of the squall. I can see downtown Toronto clearly but it is constantly snowing. The clipper is supposed to get here late afternoon so I guess it will keep snowing.
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snowgeek93
post Jan 15 2018, 03:20 PM
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Snowing at a light to moderate pace all day here. Looks great out there.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 15 2018, 03:30 PM
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Snowing at a pretty good clip in Whitby area. Lake band looks to have setup right where the NAM was showing it would. Wonít be surprised if I end up close to 10cm by the time the clipper moves through if the lake snow can keep up at this rate.


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plowguy
post Jan 15 2018, 03:32 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 15 2018, 03:20 PM) *
Snowing at a light to moderate pace all day here. Looks great out there.

Glad someone got something. Sunny and cold here, just a trace of snow but the sun has melted it. Waiting for the clipper to roll trhough...i hope it delivers something here
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 15 2018, 04:40 PM
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QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 15 2018, 03:32 PM) *
Glad someone got something. Sunny and cold here, just a trace of snow but the sun has melted it. Waiting for the clipper to roll trhough...i hope it delivers something here

Just checked the radar and it looks like the clipper should soon get to you. You should still be getting a couple to 4cm or so by late tonight if all goes as planned.


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plowguy
post Jan 15 2018, 04:54 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 15 2018, 04:40 PM) *
Just checked the radar and it looks like the clipper should soon get to you. You should still be getting a couple to 4cm or so by late tonight if all goes as planned.

Once again, thanks for the update! Looks like a bit of a break after this one and a bit warmer which I am looking forward to!
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