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> Feb 1st-3rd Eastern Canada Winter Storm
SNOWBOB11
post Jan 25 2018, 09:48 PM
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Ok, we’re all watching this time for a potential system so we might as well have a thread. Lots of discrepancy and lots of model changes over the next week but the potential is there so let’s track.

Let’s get a couple early op models posted.

GFS
Attached File  52F6553E_784B_4B23_8AB9_702C9EEE12B2.png ( 201.67K ) Number of downloads: 2


GEM
Attached File  5963EA38_1483_4019_8617_23FDD0E1DBB0.png ( 167.1K ) Number of downloads: 1


ECMWF
Attached File  DA8CE64A_E07C_4F90_BB34_B6AE6A5E1362.png ( 142K ) Number of downloads: 1


markj138 also posted a shot of the GEFS ensemble members in the winter thread showing a couple good tracks for S ON.

You can see track is still to be determined but there’s something on all global models so we’ll see. It’s also possible this ends up being a glorified cold front that helps issue in the pattern change. Time will tell.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Jan 28 2018, 09:16 PM
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 26 2018, 09:12 AM
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06z GFS

Attached File  A252D1DA_AE12_47D3_AC23_FE3D63140808.png ( 207.85K ) Number of downloads: 5
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Lake effect
post Jan 26 2018, 11:25 AM
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This feels very familiar. At this stage, I am of the view that there is a strong likelihood it will jog SE and graze ON, like so many of these systems do. They need to fix their models.
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 26 2018, 12:18 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 26 2018, 11:25 AM) *
This feels very familiar. At this stage, I am of the view that there is a strong likelihood it will jog SE and graze ON, like so many of these systems do. They need to fix their models.

I think that’s definitely a possibility. It’s possible this ends op being a dragged out cold front with minimal precip as well. Lots on the table for this system. FWIW 12z GFS was a good track for S ON with lots of precip on the NW side of the low.
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markj138
post Jan 26 2018, 01:54 PM
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I dont care if this thing show 60cm for S.ONT tomorrow i am keeping my expectations low laugh.gif
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Solstice
post Jan 26 2018, 05:33 PM
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Just keep reading...

This post has been edited by Solstice: Jan 27 2018, 09:25 AM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 26 2018, 05:49 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 26 2018, 05:33 PM) *
18z ICON
[attachment=345843:icon_asn...n_41__1_.png]

Wrong thread bro. wink.gif

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travis3000
post Jan 26 2018, 07:10 PM
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It will probably be suppressed IMO.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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akula
post Jan 26 2018, 08:30 PM
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Solstice
post Jan 27 2018, 09:24 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 26 2018, 05:49 PM) *
Wrong thread bro. wink.gif


Err... in my defense, I was on my phone laugh.gif. Still can't believe I did that, considering I made the other thread. laugh.gif


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 27 2018, 09:52 AM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Jan 27 2018, 09:24 AM) *
Err... in my defense, I was on my phone laugh.gif. Still can't believe I did that, considering I made the other thread. laugh.gif

It happens lol. laugh.gif
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 27 2018, 09:58 AM
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Most models have this system tracking more SE and missing S ON atm. Still much time for changes. Here’s the ECM for anyone interested.

Attached File  68F07A07_5F8F_4FFC_8521_B5D6C9A495CE.png ( 134.83K ) Number of downloads: 1


So many systems showing up on models for Feb so even if this one tracks SE there should be many opportunities for storms after this one.
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winter48
post Jan 27 2018, 10:13 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 27 2018, 09:58 AM) *
Most models have this system tracking more SE and missing S ON atm. Still much time for changes. Here’s the ECM for anyone interested.

Attached File  68F07A07_5F8F_4FFC_8521_B5D6C9A495CE.png ( 134.83K ) Number of downloads: 1


So many systems showing up on models for Feb so even if this one tracks SE there should be many opportunities for storms after this one.

Déjà vu? sad.gif
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 27 2018, 11:16 AM
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QUOTE(winter48 @ Jan 27 2018, 10:13 AM) *
Déjà vu? sad.gif

Maybe. Still lots of time for changes. 12z CMC looks much better and back to showing precip for ON.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Jan 27 2018, 11:17 AM
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Apocalypse
post Jan 27 2018, 12:22 PM
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Hey guys, any tips on getting rid of a snow dome? laugh.gif
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winter48
post Jan 27 2018, 12:34 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 27 2018, 11:16 AM) *
Maybe. Still lots of time for changes. 12z CMC looks much better and back to showing precip for ON.

Right on. smile.gif
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kush61
post Jan 28 2018, 10:31 AM
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Snow dome syndrome ?
Only in MBY !
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kush61
post Jan 28 2018, 07:50 PM
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D'oh !!!
Another near miss for SW Ontario.
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snowgeek93
post Jan 28 2018, 07:56 PM
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Would be nice to lay down some snow with the coming cold but we still have plenty of time for a system to track through and build up a snowpack. This cold is going nowhere fast.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 85
Days with Snow Cover: 62

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm)
January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm)
February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm)
March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm)
April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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kush61
post Jan 28 2018, 08:03 PM
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Maybe SW Ontario will get a few snowflakes from this system.
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