Jan 29th-30th S ON System Options

[snowgeek93]

Hoping for at least 5cm up this way, enough to whiten the ground again at least.

Have fun Hamilton and Niagara folks!

[SNOWBOB11]

Hoping for at least 5cm up this way, enough to whiten the ground again at least.

Have fun Hamilton and Niagara folks!

Would not be surprised to see 6-10cm for GTA at this point.

[MrMusic]

06z RGEM with ratios...temps will drop today and ratio's should be good this eve




06z NAM


12z HRRR out to 1am.... shows 15-20cm for Hamilton with ratios. Also shows an area of 15-20cm from Milton back towards London. Snowfall warnings would be extended if this were to verify.

[SNOWBOB11]

I was just looking at the HRRR and it looks to have the precip further north than most other models. It doesn’t yet go to the end of the run but extrapolating I would say it has the band of heavier accumulation right on the GTA door step by the time the system would move out. It’s always good to have the HRRR on your side.

[dsichewski]

HRRR and RAP don't show snow starting till 3-4pm.
Looking at radar, it should start in the next hour or so.

Is there a reason there is such a big time gap? I can't see it being lake effect?
In any event bring on the 20cm....work for me! It's been awfully slow the last couple weeks🙈

[MrMusic]

I was just looking at the HRRR and it looks to have the precip further north than most other models. It doesn’t yet go to the end of the run but extrapolating I would say it has the band of heavier accumulation right on the GTA door step by the time the system would move out. It’s always good to have the HRRR on your side.

You can see the most recent HRRR run above in my last post. If it verifies, could see areas just SW of the GTA being added to snowfall warnings perhaps.

This post has been edited by MrMusic: Jan 29 2018, 08:53 AM

[MrMusic]

this system is over performing to our west this morning.

Here is a report of 7.8 inches in Lansing, MI with no lake enhancement. And still several hours of heavy snow to come there. Will be interesting to see if the same banding and dynamics maintain themselves over Ontario

[MrMusic]

12z NAM
Increased snow amounts. Heaviest corridor from Turkey Point to Hamilton-Niagara

[MrMusic]

and not surprisingly, the 3k NAM also increased.... Even an area of 25cm showing up now just east of Hamilton.

[MrMusic]

new HRRR with 15-20cm for all of Hamilton.
A long area of 15cm from Brantford to SW of London

This is as of 2am. Snow just ending in Hamilton, continuing in Niagara

[MrMusic]

And right on cue, snowfall warnings have expanded to include St Thomas to Brantford. And the Long Point/Dover area

[MrMusic]

with the best dynamics of this system appearing to head for the St Thomas - Niagara corridor, I'm going to keep an eye out in the Hamilton-western Niagara region for someone to over perform quite nicely with the combination of storm dynamics now approaching the area along with a strong lake breeze.
Later this afternoon and evening I expect some very heavy snow possible in Hamilton as the temps plummet and winds align from the ENE for a time before shifting NE then N

[dsichewski]

And right on cue, snowfall warnings have expanded to include St Thomas to Brantford. And the Long Point/Dover area

Paging plowguy. lol

[Torontoweather]

Woohoo! First snow related weather warning of the winter!
Snowfall warning for 15cm.
All models are on board with around 15cm, a couple even close to 20.

Wasn’t there a snowfall warning around the Christmas period?

[Torontoweather]

this system is over performing to our west this morning.

Here is a report of 7.8 inches in Lansing, MI with no lake enhancement. And still several hours of heavy snow to come there. Will be interesting to see if the same banding and dynamics maintain themselves over Ontario

Agreed! Can you post a link to that?

[plowguy]

Paging plowguy. lol

Just made sure everything is fuelled and ready to roll! timing is very nice with this one for me. looks to be slowing around midnight which gives us time to get everyone cleared and salted by morning.

[Torontoweather]

this system is over performing to our west this morning.

Here is a report of 7.8 inches in Lansing, MI with no lake enhancement. And still several hours of heavy snow to come there. Will be interesting to see if the same banding and dynamics maintain themselves over Ontario

It’s not ideal but it’s definitely not a bad setup for deformation and low-level frontogenesis. I would be surprised if some of these local amounts in excess of 15-20 cm did not transfer over into southern Ontario. The question is where. Beautiful band set up right now north of Kitchener and Stratford that is probably putting down hefty rates. Later on, best dynamics will be from London to Hamilton and Niagara. GTA should get in on some heavier snow too but for a shorter period.

This post has been edited by Torontoweather: Jan 29 2018, 10:19 AM

[Jeremy404]

Shouldn't have washed the car yesterday!

Washing the car in modern times is the equivlent of calling for the rain/snow gods

[Jeremy404]

Just woke up in Guelph

Moderate snowfall here, was not expecting this at all

Forecast was for a mere dusting yesterday lol

Lucky I lifted my wipers up in case those last second models verified which it seems to be doing lol

[dsichewski]

It’s not ideal but it’s definitely not a bad setup for deformation and low-level frontogenesis. I would be surprised if some of these local amounts in excess of 15-20 cm did not transfer over into southern Ontario. The question is where. Beautiful band set up right now north of Kitchener and Stratford that is probably putting down hefty rates. Later on, best dynamics will be from London to Hamilton and Niagara. GTA should get in on some heavier snow too but for a shorter period.

Its snowing quite heavily here in Guelph...ground is already covered in a dusting of white and doesnt seem to be letting up anytime soon...how long it stays at this intensity remains to be seen though...