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#21
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![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 3,937 Joined: 7-September 09 From: Thornhill, Ontario Member No.: 19,154 ![]() |
Hoping for at least 5cm up this way, enough to whiten the ground again at least.
Have fun Hamilton and Niagara folks! ![]() -------------------- Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm
First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm) Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm) Days with Snow on Ground: 85 Days with Snow Cover: 62 November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm) December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm) January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm) February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm) March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm) April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm) Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm |
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#22
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 915 Joined: 16-January 13 Member No.: 28,061 ![]() |
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#23
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,540 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
06z RGEM with ratios...temps will drop today and ratio's should be good this eve
![]() 06z NAM ![]() 12z HRRR out to 1am.... shows 15-20cm for Hamilton with ratios. Also shows an area of 15-20cm from Milton back towards London. Snowfall warnings would be extended if this were to verify. ![]() -------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#24
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 915 Joined: 16-January 13 Member No.: 28,061 ![]() |
I was just looking at the HRRR and it looks to have the precip further north than most other models. It doesn’t yet go to the end of the run but extrapolating I would say it has the band of heavier accumulation right on the GTA door step by the time the system would move out. It’s always good to have the HRRR on your side.
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#25
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Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 405 Joined: 7-January 10 From: Guelph, on Member No.: 20,828 ![]() |
HRRR and RAP don't show snow starting till 3-4pm. Looking at radar, it should start in the next hour or so. Is there a reason there is such a big time gap? I can't see it being lake effect? In any event bring on the 20cm....work for me! It's been awfully slow the last couple weeks🙈 |
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#26
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,540 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
I was just looking at the HRRR and it looks to have the precip further north than most other models. It doesn’t yet go to the end of the run but extrapolating I would say it has the band of heavier accumulation right on the GTA door step by the time the system would move out. It’s always good to have the HRRR on your side. You can see the most recent HRRR run above in my last post. If it verifies, could see areas just SW of the GTA being added to snowfall warnings perhaps. This post has been edited by MrMusic: Jan 29 2018, 08:53 AM -------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#27
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,540 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
this system is over performing to our west this morning.
Here is a report of 7.8 inches in Lansing, MI with no lake enhancement. And still several hours of heavy snow to come there. Will be interesting to see if the same banding and dynamics maintain themselves over Ontario ![]() -------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#28
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,540 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
12z NAM
Increased snow amounts. Heaviest corridor from Turkey Point to Hamilton-Niagara ![]() -------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#29
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,540 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
and not surprisingly, the 3k NAM also increased.... Even an area of 25cm showing up now just east of Hamilton.
![]() -------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#30
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,540 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
new HRRR with 15-20cm for all of Hamilton.
A long area of 15cm from Brantford to SW of London This is as of 2am. Snow just ending in Hamilton, continuing in Niagara ![]() -------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#31
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,540 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
And right on cue, snowfall warnings have expanded to include St Thomas to Brantford. And the Long Point/Dover area
-------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#32
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 4,540 Joined: 6-February 13 Member No.: 28,218 ![]() |
with the best dynamics of this system appearing to head for the St Thomas - Niagara corridor, I'm going to keep an eye out in the Hamilton-western Niagara region for someone to over perform quite nicely with the combination of storm dynamics now approaching the area along with a strong lake breeze.
Later this afternoon and evening I expect some very heavy snow possible in Hamilton as the temps plummet and winds align from the ENE for a time before shifting NE then N -------------------- Winter 2017-2018
December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!! 13: 5cm 14: 12cm 22: 9cm 23: 9cm 24: 16cm JAN 2018 1: 5cm 8: 10cm 15: 6cm 29: 16cm FEB 2018 8: 13cm 10-11: 18cm Winter 2016-2017 Dec 2016: 30cm Jan 2017: 5cm Feb 2017: 7cm March 2017: 35cm!! Finally! Days with snow on the ground: 25 |
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#33
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Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 405 Joined: 7-January 10 From: Guelph, on Member No.: 20,828 ![]() |
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#34
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 10,169 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 ![]() |
Woohoo! First snow related weather warning of the winter! Snowfall warning for 15cm. All models are on board with around 15cm, a couple even close to 20. Wasn’t there a snowfall warning around the Christmas period? -------------------- McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.
When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;) |
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#35
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 10,169 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 ![]() |
this system is over performing to our west this morning. Here is a report of 7.8 inches in Lansing, MI with no lake enhancement. And still several hours of heavy snow to come there. Will be interesting to see if the same banding and dynamics maintain themselves over Ontario ![]() Agreed! Can you post a link to that? -------------------- McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.
When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;) |
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#36
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 758 Joined: 17-February 09 From: brantford Member No.: 17,615 ![]() |
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#37
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Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 10,169 Joined: 18-October 09 From: Toronto, Ontario Member No.: 19,500 ![]() |
this system is over performing to our west this morning. Here is a report of 7.8 inches in Lansing, MI with no lake enhancement. And still several hours of heavy snow to come there. Will be interesting to see if the same banding and dynamics maintain themselves over Ontario ![]() It’s not ideal but it’s definitely not a bad setup for deformation and low-level frontogenesis. I would be surprised if some of these local amounts in excess of 15-20 cm did not transfer over into southern Ontario. The question is where. Beautiful band set up right now north of Kitchener and Stratford that is probably putting down hefty rates. Later on, best dynamics will be from London to Hamilton and Niagara. GTA should get in on some heavier snow too but for a shorter period. This post has been edited by Torontoweather: Jan 29 2018, 10:19 AM -------------------- McGill University graduate in Atmospheric Science. Class of 2017.
When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;) |
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#38
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Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 489 Joined: 6-February 13 From: Richmond Hill & Guelph Member No.: 28,227 ![]() |
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#39
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Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 489 Joined: 6-February 13 From: Richmond Hill & Guelph Member No.: 28,227 ![]() |
Just woke up in Guelph
Moderate snowfall here, was not expecting this at all Forecast was for a mere dusting yesterday lol Lucky I lifted my wipers up in case those last second models verified which it seems to be doing lol |
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#40
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Rank: Tornado ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 405 Joined: 7-January 10 From: Guelph, on Member No.: 20,828 ![]() |
It’s not ideal but it’s definitely not a bad setup for deformation and low-level frontogenesis. I would be surprised if some of these local amounts in excess of 15-20 cm did not transfer over into southern Ontario. The question is where. Beautiful band set up right now north of Kitchener and Stratford that is probably putting down hefty rates. Later on, best dynamics will be from London to Hamilton and Niagara. GTA should get in on some heavier snow too but for a shorter period. Its snowing quite heavily here in Guelph...ground is already covered in a dusting of white and doesnt seem to be letting up anytime soon...how long it stays at this intensity remains to be seen though... |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 25th April 2018 - 06:47 PM |