Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

4 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> February Cold/LES/clippers<10cm thread, Lot's of bits and pieces coming up with a month of cold
Lake effect
post Jan 30 2018, 10:22 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,785
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





Thought I would create one thread for the multiple minor weather outbreaks that will be coming in this extended cold phase. Big events like storms, extended major LES outbreaks, or clippers >10cms maybe still deserve their own thread.

Firstly, looking at the Euro weeklies, this cold spell will last at least until the latter half of february. In the first half, at least there will be a number of small clippers and LES outbreaks. The first will begin on thursday after the clipper. The winds swing to WNW, and will drive a number of bands through the region, with minor accumulations. then they fix more NW, Thursday midnight, then NNW during Friday, then back to NW as they moderate before the next clipper system.

Winds:

Attached File  hwn_60.gif ( 31.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  hwn_66.gif ( 31.62K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  hwn_78.gif ( 29.44K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  hwn_84.gif ( 29.22K ) Number of downloads: 0



Attached File  namconus_ref_frzn_neus_46.png ( 174.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  namconus_ref_frzn_neus_48.png ( 173.36K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50.png ( 164.14K ) Number of downloads: 0


Predictions from midday Thursday to saturday morning - some areas aligned to NW to SE will get two hits:

Red - 20-40cms

Green - 10-30cms

Black - trace - 10cms

Attached File  prediction_map.jpg ( 256.94K ) Number of downloads: 9


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 30 2018, 10:34 AM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  hwn_54.gif ( 30.47K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SNOWBOB11
post Jan 30 2018, 11:15 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 915
Joined: 16-January 13
Member No.: 28,061





The clipper low for tomorrow could drop 5 or more cm’s right down to the east end of the GTA. I think places that got a bit less snow from yesterday’s system might make up for it a bit with this one. Should note that the NAM is a bit disorganized with the clipper though so we’ll have to see how things look on the models going forward.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 30 2018, 11:39 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,785
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 30 2018, 11:15 AM) *
The clipper low for tomorrow could drop 5 or more cm’s right down to the east end of the GTA. I think places that got a bit less snow from yesterday’s system might make up for it a bit with this one. Should note that the NAM is a bit disorganized with the clipper though so we’ll have to see how things look on the models going forward.


Yep, CMC and GFS are quite generous for some parts >10cms, with the NAM giving nothing in S. ON. Personally I think the GFS and CMC are overegging it, but we will see. Given this a January clipper and could be >10cms, keep it where it is, but going forward might be less messy to keep that kind of stuff in here unless they develop.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 30 2018, 11:40 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,785
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





Saturdays clipper should give some good mood snow, but at this stage looks like it will be <10cms:

GFS saturday evening:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png ( 194.57K ) Number of downloads: 2


GFS 24 hr snowfall with 10:1 (probably will be much higher ratios than this)

Attached File  gfs_asnow24_neus_17.png ( 141.14K ) Number of downloads: 1


GEM

Attached File  gem_asnow24_neus_16.png ( 122.83K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 30 2018, 11:42 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
plowguy
post Jan 30 2018, 12:03 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 759
Joined: 17-February 09
From: brantford
Member No.: 17,615





QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 30 2018, 11:40 AM) *
Saturdays clipper should give some good mood snow, but at this stage looks like it will be <10cms:

GFS saturday evening:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_18.png ( 194.57K ) Number of downloads: 2


GFS 24 hr snowfall with 10:1 (probably will be much higher ratios than this)

Attached File  gfs_asnow24_neus_17.png ( 141.14K ) Number of downloads: 1


GEM

Attached File  gem_asnow24_neus_16.png ( 122.83K ) Number of downloads: 0

LMAO! What is mood snow??????? Looks like work snow to me.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 30 2018, 12:08 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,785
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 30 2018, 12:03 PM) *
LMAO! What is mood snow??????? Looks like work snow to me.


Mood snow is sitting in front of the fire with a steady fall of light snow adding atmosphere. Maybe a shovel once a day...for you, yep, work!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
plowguy
post Jan 30 2018, 12:39 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 759
Joined: 17-February 09
From: brantford
Member No.: 17,615





QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 30 2018, 12:08 PM) *
Mood snow is sitting in front of the fire with a steady fall of light snow adding atmosphere. Maybe a shovel once a day...for you, yep, work!

Now I'm jealous.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 30 2018, 01:10 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,785
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 30 2018, 12:39 PM) *
Now I'm jealous.


Oh yes, and a glass of Zinfadel...maybe a jazz playlist off tidal playing softly in the background, a roast in the oven...Scarlet Johannson the cat sitting on my lap.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 30 2018, 01:12 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MrMusic
post Jan 30 2018, 01:35 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,600
Joined: 6-February 13
Member No.: 28,218





QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 30 2018, 01:10 PM) *
Oh yes, and a glass of Zinfadel...maybe a jazz playlist off tidal playing softly in the background, a roast in the oven...Scarlet Johannson the cat sitting on my lap.


haha!


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
markj138
post Jan 30 2018, 01:47 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 30 2018, 01:10 PM) *
Oh yes, and a glass of Zinfadel...maybe a jazz playlist off tidal playing softly in the background, a roast in the oven...Scarlet Johannson the cat sitting on my lap.


Scarlet can sit on my lap any time tongue.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
markj138
post Jan 30 2018, 01:55 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





CMC has the best Jan 31-Feb 1 look out of all the models right now for the GHTA area

Attached File  gem_asnow_neus_10.png ( 129.21K ) Number of downloads: 7
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 30 2018, 02:10 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,785
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 30 2018, 01:47 PM) *
Scarlet can sit on my lap any time tongue.gif


Thankfully my wife is even more beautiful that Scarlet Johansson (to me).
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
plowguy
post Jan 30 2018, 03:12 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 759
Joined: 17-February 09
From: brantford
Member No.: 17,615





QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 30 2018, 02:10 PM) *
Thankfully my wife is even more beautiful that Scarlet Johansson (to me).

We are in our 29th year. Its refreshing to hear positive things about a spouse. Best thing I ever did, was propose!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
GreatWhiteTornad...
post Jan 30 2018, 04:56 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 956
Joined: 12-February 13
From: Vaughan, Ontario
Member No.: 28,279





My wife and I are going on 10 years, I can say I married the most beautiful woman, looks and in heart and soul.

It is a blessing, no one forces anyone to stay with anyone, its a choice to stay or go, never waste time with the wrong person
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
winter48
post Jan 30 2018, 05:01 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,798
Joined: 11-October 10
From: Burlington
Member No.: 24,046





Wow, guys! As one of the few (I think anyway) females on this forum, I just had to chime in and say how nice it is to hear men speak so kindly about their wives! Keep on appreciating them like this and I am sure they'll love ya back even more! smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
markj138
post Jan 30 2018, 05:05 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,106
Joined: 19-December 09
From: Agincourt,Scarborough
Member No.: 20,461





The 18Z 12knam was a little better for the jan 31-feb 1 period around the gta

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_19.png ( 134.16K ) Number of downloads: 3
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SNOWBOB11
post Jan 30 2018, 05:11 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 915
Joined: 16-January 13
Member No.: 28,061





QUOTE(markj138 @ Jan 30 2018, 05:05 PM) *
The 18Z 12knam was a little better for the jan 31-feb 1 period around the gta

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_19.png ( 134.16K ) Number of downloads: 3

The Canadian models (RGEM/GGEM) both look better than the NAM for the GTA. Not sure which model to believe yet but I think either way this should be a better system for eastern GTA than western GTA.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Jan 30 2018, 05:18 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SNOWBOB11
post Jan 30 2018, 05:16 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 915
Joined: 16-January 13
Member No.: 28,061





Here’s the GFS for the system after on the 3rd. Doesn’t look bad atm.

Attached File  8B9BD9C8_2B2D_4D44_8701_BE69F724C5ED.png ( 191.67K ) Number of downloads: 4
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 30 2018, 06:37 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,785
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





QUOTE(plowguy @ Jan 30 2018, 03:12 PM) *
We are in our 29th year. Its refreshing to hear positive things about a spouse. Best thing I ever did, was propose!


Wow, congratulations. Yes, finding the right person is a blessing indeed. I was married before, so know the other side of the coin. While the Scarlett's of the world look great on the movie screens and in the magazines, I wouldn't swap my missus for ten Scarletts. Found my soul mate...although she is going off snow now!!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Lake effect
post Jan 30 2018, 06:40 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,785
Joined: 17-December 12
From: Barrie
Member No.: 27,345





The difference between the NAM and GFS/CMC is quite stark for tomorrow around here. GFS has us in for 15cms, CMC 10 and NAM a trace.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

4 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd July 2018 - 06:50 PM