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> February Cold/LES/clippers<10cm thread, Lot's of bits and pieces coming up with a month of cold
travis3000
post Jan 30 2018, 10:06 PM
Post #21




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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 30 2018, 06:40 PM) *
The difference between the NAM and GFS/CMC is quite stark for tomorrow around here. GFS has us in for 15cms, CMC 10 and NAM a trace.


I noticed that. Let the battle begin yet again.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jan 31 2018, 07:53 AM
Post #22




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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Jan 30 2018, 10:06 PM) *
I noticed that. Let the battle begin yet again.


The models are sticking to their guns, although the CMC have upped their totals for Barrie to about 15cms. EC are only calling for 5cms, which is a bit silly given their own model is saying 3 times that. NAM still holding out. The radar is loaded so let hostilities officially commence! May the best model win!

Attached File  Screenshot_20180131_074959.jpg ( 282.66K ) Number of downloads: 1
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Lake effect
post Jan 31 2018, 08:05 AM
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The latest model predictions. HRRR in agreement with NAM, creating the Nottawasaga tent that shoves the snow East. GFS and RGEM sends the heaviest snow straight down the valley:

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_5.png ( 131.8K ) Number of downloads: 3


Attached File  hrrr_asnow_neus_18.png ( 125.06K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  nam3km_asnow_neus_19.png ( 128.23K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  rgem_asnow_neus_18.png ( 124.77K ) Number of downloads: 1
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Lake effect
post Jan 31 2018, 08:13 AM
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Looking like two lively squalls will form thursday night into Friday, one off GB and one off Huron. Given they will move slowly and hover over locales for a few hours, totals could easily exceed 15cms in places like Barrie. They will head South West and weaken a bit, but still give good amoints near the shores. They will then come back North East, and drop another 5cms or so late on Friday.

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_47__1_.png ( 205.79K ) Number of downloads: 3
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 31 2018, 08:17 AM
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Radar definitely looks more in line with the GFS/RGEM than the NAM.
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Lake effect
post Jan 31 2018, 08:32 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 31 2018, 08:17 AM) *
Radar definitely looks more in line with the GFS/RGEM than the NAM.


Mmm...not so sure. Snow is really light here. See this so often with system snow in Barrie where the dome just catches us and extends all the way down into the GTA. I will consider us very lucky if we get 10cms. I still think EC should say 5-10 though given the uncertainty.

Attached File  Screenshot_20180131_083005.jpg ( 296.5K ) Number of downloads: 0
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 31 2018, 08:41 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 31 2018, 08:32 AM) *
Mmm...not so sure. Snow is really light here. See this so often with system snow in Barrie where the dome just catches us and extends all the way down into the GTA. I will consider us very lucky if we get 10cms. I still think EC should say 5-10 though given the uncertainty.

Attached File  Screenshot_20180131_083005.jpg ( 296.5K ) Number of downloads: 0

Oh ok. I saw the green on the radar and thought it might be a decent band but I know sometimes it can be deceiving.
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Lake effect
post Jan 31 2018, 08:56 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Jan 31 2018, 08:41 AM) *
Oh ok. I saw the green on the radar and thought it might be a decent band but I know sometimes it can be deceiving.


If you look closer it is just to the East of Barrie. About 10km East of us will get 10-15cms, and we will get 2-5cms today. Seen it many times. It is the main reason why Orillia gets 70cms more snow than us each year. I am dissapointed, but shouldn't be surprised. HRRR and 3K NAM win. I think we will make up for it tomorrow night though. The LES signals are good. However today was the last chance to make up for what has probably been the worst January since I arrived here 6 years ago...even Nino year was better. About half as much snow as we normally get and a horrid thaw. Officially a *bleep* January for Barrie. February is looking better, so hopefully will make up it.

Full snow tent/dome now assembled:


Attached File  Screenshot_20180131_085726.jpg ( 274.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Jan 31 2018, 09:00 AM
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SNOWBOB11
post Jan 31 2018, 10:21 AM
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Snow coming down at a good rate atm in Whitby. If it continues at this rate we should get to or over 5cm.
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snowgeek93
post Jan 31 2018, 11:00 AM
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Fantastic morning out there! biggrin.gif tongue.gif

Moderate to heavy snowfall still coming down here.

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--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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Lake effect
post Jan 31 2018, 11:25 AM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Jan 31 2018, 11:00 AM) *
Fantastic morning out there! biggrin.gif tongue.gif

Moderate to heavy snowfall still coming down here.

Attached File  IMG_20180131_1004063021.jpg ( 1.58MB ) Number of downloads: 2


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Nice.

Looks like parts of the GTA will do better than us out of this going by the radar. Never quite fired on all cylinders. Sums up our January to be honest. I am very hopeful though for the upcoming LES. I think Barrie could be a big beneficiary of both stints. The winds are with us.
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Lake effect
post Jan 31 2018, 01:47 PM
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We only picked up 4cms from this clipper. HRRR and NAM win.
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travis3000
post Jan 31 2018, 06:47 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Jan 31 2018, 01:47 PM) *
We only picked up 4cms from this clipper. HRRR and NAM win.


I measured 3cm here in south Barrie. My family in Alliston reported similar amounts there. NAM took the cake, the radar looked very impressive but the snow just didn't accumulate. It was never coming down heavy and the flakes were light and fluffy.

Regardless I personally measured a beautiful 50.5cm of snow in my backyard here in SW Barrie. Not bad at all, Alliston was down at 28cm. Lots of little snowfalls, nothing extravagant though. Biggest snowfall of the month was the New Years Day storm with 16cm, after that the next two largest were both at 7cm. Lots of little 2-3cm events that really did add up. The two thaws though really hit us hard, reducing that snowpack down to grass twice.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Jan 31 2018, 06:50 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Jan 31 2018, 06:48 PM
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Map for Thurs Night into Friday:

Attached File  Squalls_Feb_1_2nd_2018.jpg ( 181.71K ) Number of downloads: 5


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Jan 31 2018, 10:27 PM
Post #35




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Maybe I'm wrong, but I think this is going to kick off much earlier than the hi-res is saying. I think tomorrow evening as the temps plummet after the front passes through, some very active squalls could set up by about 9.00pm. The winds are looking very nice:
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2018, 11:44 AM
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Just not uunderstanding why this won't produce some pretty tasty squalls this afternoon. Temps dropping like a stone, -7 by 3.00pm, strong winds crossing open water. None of the models really buying anything off GB till late this evening. I've got this wrong before, but so have the models on these squalls, and I am thinking a very strong squall will set up off GB between 2pm and 5pm, and hammer somewhere in the North East Barrie to Orillia corridoor until after midnight.

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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2018, 05:52 PM
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So I was 10 minutes out smile.gif

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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 1 2018, 08:03 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 1 2018, 05:52 PM) *
So I was 10 minutes out smile.gif

Not bad.
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travis3000
post Feb 1 2018, 08:18 PM
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Squall coming in from Wasaga through Springwater and to the north end of Barrie presently. Not snowing here in the SW. Only a trace thus far today.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 1 2018, 08:19 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Feb 1 2018, 09:22 PM
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We've just on the southern edge...about 3-4cms down, but a few kms away I reckon on 10-15 as radar has been dark green yellow for an hour or so.
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