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> Feb 4-5th S.ONT Storm Potential
markj138
post Feb 2 2018, 04:13 PM
Post #41




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the 18z 12k nam came in a little better

Attached File  namconus_asnow_neus_22.png ( 153.6K ) Number of downloads: 6
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plowguy
post Feb 2 2018, 04:54 PM
Post #42




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If anyone has the chance to comment. 8-12 cms total for both waves seem reasonable for Brantford. And over before Sunday midnight?
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MrMusic
post Feb 2 2018, 04:56 PM
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Looks like about 10-12 for the Golden Horseshoe this weekend.
This is by Monday morning

18z GFS


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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plowguy
post Feb 2 2018, 04:58 PM
Post #44




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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 2 2018, 04:56 PM) *
Looks like about 10-12 for the Golden Horseshoe this weekend.
This is by Monday morning

18z GFS

You must have been reading my mind!!!!!!
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Bob and Karen
post Feb 2 2018, 07:44 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 2 2018, 09:31 AM) *
By NAV are you talking about the NAV GEM model? Or did you mean the NAM model like the one I posted? Either way the NAV GEM and NAM are both available on the tropical tidbits link you posted. NAV GEM is available on the Global tab at the top of the forecast models page. The NAM is available on the mesoscale tab at the top right of the forecast models page. You have access to the 32k, 12k and 3k NAM.

Unfortunately the euro precipitation maps are only behind paywalls so you have to sign up for an account to get access to that. Hereís a link for euro precip maps. https://weathermodels.com. Itís $10 a month. You can get access to euro 500 geopotential hight and low pressure on the same tropical tidbits site under ECMWF in the Global tab but as I said precip isnít available anywhere for free.



Thanks for the helpful info SnowBob! Looking forward to vacationing in hopefully a snowy Ontario after the Super Bowl.


Bob & Karen
Long time/loyal, well-behaved 🤪 Eagles Fans!
Go 🦅
(Spread the wealth Pats)
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travis3000
post Feb 2 2018, 08:50 PM
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18z NAM accumulations. Temps won't be that cold so I'd stick with 10:1 ratios.

Heaviest snows will be in Muskoka down to Kawartha Lakes/ Bobcaygeon as well as the lee of Lake Huron (Grey County, Bruce County, Huron County) where 20 to 30cm is likely. Somewhere in this zone could pick up 35cm. The lakes will really act to enhance these bands of snow.

GTA up to Wasaga Beach will be in the same zone, a bit of downsloping east of the escarpment will eat amounts Sat into Sat night with a SW and then W wind. Still though a general 7 to 12cm is likely across this area by Sunday at midnight.

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_02_02_at_7.42.51_PM.jpg ( 664.12K ) Number of downloads: 11


This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 2 2018, 08:51 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Feb 2 2018, 09:37 PM
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My map for Sat and Sun...

Attached File  Feb_3rd_4th_Storm.jpg ( 142.33K ) Number of downloads: 7


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Feb 2 2018, 10:10 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 2 2018, 09:37 PM) *
My map for Sat and Sun...

Attached File  Feb_3rd_4th_Storm.jpg ( 142.33K ) Number of downloads: 7


Nice map showing the annoying effect of the escarpment...yet again. I think Barrie may benefit from some lake enhancement on the back end, but yeah, I don't see us getting more than 12cms.
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snowgeek93
post Feb 2 2018, 10:22 PM
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Nice map Travis! Looks like a decent snowfall for me smile.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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kitfoxflyer
post Feb 3 2018, 06:25 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 2 2018, 09:37 PM) *
My map for Sat and Sun...

Attached File  Feb_3rd_4th_Storm.jpg ( 142.33K ) Number of downloads: 7



looks like a good map
thanks


--------------------
Snow coming - PLOW time Video Plow in Action
even some Weather links :-)
http://www.cfisher.com/
Movies from TNT to airplane flying to Tornado damages
http://www.youtube.com/profile_videos?user=kitfoxflyer
Twitter- Join the crowd
https://twitter.com/kitfoxflyer
Live weather from our airstrip
Ilderton London Ontario
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Lake effect
post Feb 3 2018, 07:49 AM
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Why is that only the NAM seems to predict the downsloping correctly? The RGEM has the heaviest band exactly where we know it will be lightest, as with the last storm. However, if the GFS track is right and the low passes just to the south of Lake Simcoe, then Barrie will do better than Travis' map suggests, especially on the back of the storm. Having been through a number of these, I know that we can get a nice 5-10cm gift with lake enhancement

RGEM

Attached File  rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28.png ( 199.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


NAM

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28.png ( 205.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


GFS

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_6.png ( 179.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


Winds tomorrow evening. If these come off, Barrie, Orillia down to Peterborough will get significant lake enhancement and add a good 5-10cms to totals, push Barrie into the 15-20cm zone, and the GFS total snowfall map will be good:

Attached File  hwn_48__1_.gif ( 35.73K ) Number of downloads: 1


GFS total snowfall:

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_10.png ( 160.18K ) Number of downloads: 5


This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 3 2018, 07:53 AM
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sledder
post Feb 3 2018, 08:08 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Feb 2 2018, 09:37 PM) *
My map for Sat and Sun...

Attached File  Feb_3rd_4th_Storm.jpg ( 142.33K ) Number of downloads: 7

Thank you Travis 3000 for giving Muskoka a good dump of snow. We needed it!
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travis3000
post Feb 3 2018, 09:08 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 3 2018, 07:49 AM) *
Why is that only the NAM seems to predict the downsloping correctly? The RGEM has the heaviest band exactly where we know it will be lightest, as with the last storm. However, if the GFS track is right and the low passes just to the south of Lake Simcoe, then Barrie will do better than Travis' map suggests, especially on the back of the storm. Having been through a number of these, I know that we can get a nice 5-10cm gift with lake enhancement

RGEM

Attached File  rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28.png ( 199.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


NAM

Attached File  nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28.png ( 205.67K ) Number of downloads: 0


GFS

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_6.png ( 179.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


Winds tomorrow evening. If these come off, Barrie, Orillia down to Peterborough will get significant lake enhancement and add a good 5-10cms to totals, push Barrie into the 15-20cm zone, and the GFS total snowfall map will be good:

Attached File  hwn_48__1_.gif ( 35.73K ) Number of downloads: 1


GFS total snowfall:

Attached File  gfs_asnow_neus_10.png ( 160.18K ) Number of downloads: 5


Yep tricky forecast indeed. LES already began in Midland overnight and that area has picked up 10-15cm of snow already although that was not included in my map. The real system snow won't begin until this afternoon. Right now what we are seeing is lake enhancement from the westerly winds. My map begins today at noon and goes to midnight Sunday.

Its a hard forecast, I am going with the NAM myself. Just my gut feeling. If the low trends more in line with the GFS and RGEM then yes the Barrie area will be in the 12-18cm zone opposed to less. My personal estimate for Barrie is 10cm.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Feb 3 2018, 09:12 AM
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The GFS has been trending further North, so you may be right. The 12Z run should reveal all. Still, really like the those winds tomorrow evening.
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travis3000
post Feb 3 2018, 09:18 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Feb 3 2018, 09:12 AM) *
The GFS has been trending further North, so you may be right. The 12Z run should reveal all. Still, really like the those winds tomorrow evening.


Euro is also on board with downsloping.

12z NAM:

Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_02_03_at_9.22.35_AM.jpg ( 486.91K ) Number of downloads: 11


This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 3 2018, 09:24 AM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 3 2018, 09:23 AM
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06z RGEM and HRDPS.

Attached File  EDF87CAD_27BC_4728_AF89_5F932FB4B05D.png ( 163.45K ) Number of downloads: 8


Attached File  3087EED2_CDB3_4CA3_B052_5AD20E1EDF43.png ( 169.23K ) Number of downloads: 8
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dsichewski
post Feb 3 2018, 09:32 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 3 2018, 10:23 AM) *
06z RGEM and HRDPS.

Attached File  EDF87CAD_27BC_4728_AF89_5F932FB4B05D.png ( 163.45K ) Number of downloads: 8

I'll take the RGEM please! 6"👌🏻
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 3 2018, 09:39 AM
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QUOTE(dsichewski @ Feb 3 2018, 09:32 AM) *
I'll take the RGEM please! 6"👌🏻

Thereís been several times this season that eastern GTA has done a bit better in terms on snowfall than western GTA. I think thatís possible again with this system.
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Lake effect
post Feb 3 2018, 11:06 AM
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NAM has come a bit south. Strong North west winds kick in over Georgian Bay from around 13.00 tomorrow, I think that areas downwind of this, Barrie, possibly Newmarket, down to Eastern GTA may also benefit to the tune of totals being closer to 15cms than 7 or 8, and more in line with RGEM and GFS totals.

This post has been edited by Lake effect: Feb 3 2018, 11:09 AM
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travis3000
post Feb 3 2018, 01:32 PM
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Some internal snowfall estimates from Kai :
he posted these on our FB group.

Windsor: 5-10 cm
Sarnia: 8-15 cm
London: 10-15 cm
Kincardine: 15-25 cm
Niagara, Hamilton, Burlington, Toronto to Alliston/Barrie: 5-10 cm
Muskoka, Peterborough, Belleville, Bancroft: 15-25 cm
Kingston, Ottawa, Montreal: 10-20 cm
Gatineau, Mont-Tremblant: 15-25 cm


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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