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> Feb 6th-8th Eastern Canada Winter Storm
Jeremy404
post Feb 4 2018, 10:41 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 4 2018, 10:32 PM) *
Why would you throw in the towel already? To get to a 20cm snowfall we will need to get shifts in the models which is still possible but no guarantee yet, but a moderate snowfall is seeming plausible atm for the lower lakes.

Hereís the 00z NAM
[attachment=347412:42B01765...6675C76C.png]


Maybe I'm just getting model fatigue or getting false hopes crushed lol

I don't mind the small events we're getting, but we haven't seen anything blockbuster like so far like the winter of 2007-2008
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markj138
post Feb 4 2018, 11:02 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 4 2018, 10:32 PM) *
Why would you throw in the towel already? To get to a 20cm snowfall we will need to get shifts in the models which is still possible but no guarantee yet, but a moderate snowfall is seeming plausible atm for the lower lakes.

HereÔŅĹs the 00z NAM
[attachment=347412:42B01765...6675C76C.png]


I was surprised the nam didn`t make a bigger shift SE from its 18z run,looks like the gfs did shift SE some though.

This post has been edited by markj138: Feb 4 2018, 11:03 PM
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 5 2018, 08:10 AM
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00z ECM
Attached File  2D43378E_4787_468E_ADAF_B6247AF08E57.png ( 100.47K ) Number of downloads: 4


Snow map
Attached File  BAF81C51_51AD_4F46_8D70_9307650D2018.png ( 171.94K ) Number of downloads: 5
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 5 2018, 08:15 AM
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Heaviest snow still modelled to the south of S ON. Euro and NAM are different to each other with exact track and intensity but both are decent for ON for the most part. 06z GFS is the most SE with the low.

This post has been edited by SNOWBOB11: Feb 5 2018, 08:18 AM
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 5 2018, 08:36 AM
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06z GFS ensemble members
Attached File  3106C6F7_0812_40C6_9593_6A316D48656E.png ( 256.24K ) Number of downloads: 5
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 5 2018, 08:37 AM
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Final frame of the 06z RGEM
Attached File  07226B20_B72B_4DE4_8B57_2CEA8135B181.png ( 174.47K ) Number of downloads: 4
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winter48
post Feb 5 2018, 08:52 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 5 2018, 08:37 AM) *
Final frame of the 06z RGEM
Attached File  07226B20_B72B_4DE4_8B57_2CEA8135B181.png ( 174.47K ) Number of downloads: 4


Could have so much potential if it would stop being so stubborn and come north! rolleyes.gif
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snowgeek93
post Feb 5 2018, 09:12 AM
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I'd be happy with a 5-10cm event to boost our snowpack around here. Lets hope we get something out of this at least.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2017/2018 Snowfall: 151.5cm

First Flakes: Nov 9th/10th
First Snowfall: Nov 9th/10th (2cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Dec 11th/12th (15.8cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 85
Days with Snow Cover: 62

November 2017: 2.8cm (12.1cm)
December 2017: 45.2cm (34.2cm)
January 2018: 33.0cm (38.9cm)
February 2018: 34.1cm (29.9cm)
March 2018: 5.8cm (19.3cm)
April 2018: 30.6cm (7.5cm)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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MrMusic
post Feb 5 2018, 09:28 AM
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Havne't post many model images after wasting way too much time with the last possible big storm that missed.
Looking at this one, again we see a SE wind aloft which should drive some lake enhancement into the eastern GTA/Oshawa.
I'm amazed at how often we've seen a SE wind this winter.

Will look into this system more fully later tonight or tomorrow instead of spending too much time now.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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winter48
post Feb 5 2018, 10:05 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 5 2018, 09:28 AM) *
Havne't post many model images after wasting way too much time with the last possible big storm that missed.
Looking at this one, again we see a SE wind aloft which should drive some lake enhancement into the eastern GTA/Oshawa.
I'm amazed at how often we've seen a SE wind this winter.

Will look into this system more fully later tonight or tomorrow instead of spending too much time now.

I wonder why TWNís write up class for lake enhancement around the west end of Lake Ontario then? unsure.gif
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 5 2018, 10:12 AM
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QUOTE(MrMusic @ Feb 5 2018, 09:28 AM) *
Havne't post many model images after wasting way too much time with the last possible big storm that missed.
Looking at this one, again we see a SE wind aloft which should drive some lake enhancement into the eastern GTA/Oshawa.
I'm amazed at how often we've seen a SE wind this winter.

Will look into this system more fully later tonight or tomorrow instead of spending too much time now.

The lake enhancement from the SE wind this season has been quite surprising how often itís been present. Eastern GTA as you say looks to get into this again. Iím in Whitby and several times already this season Iíve got some good bands develop as a system tracks in and have got some heavy snows associated with it while to the west of the GTA they havenít had as much. Normally itís not as prevalent as itís been this season.
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HoBOonFiRE
post Feb 5 2018, 10:38 AM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 5 2018, 10:12 AM) *
The lake enhancement from the SE wind this season has been quite surprising how often itís been present. Eastern GTA as you say looks to get into this again. Iím in Whitby and several times already this season Iíve got some good bands develop as a system tracks in and have got some heavy snows associated with it while to the west of the GTA they havenít had as much. Normally itís not as prevalent as itís been this season.
I can second this. Usually it happens once maybe twice a season but Ive lost count how often Oshawas gotten a SE wind...heck even SW wind has given us lake effect.
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Jeremy404
post Feb 5 2018, 11:28 AM
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Anyone got the latest GFS & NAM?
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travis3000
post Feb 5 2018, 12:23 PM
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12z CMC
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_02_05_at_12.22.09_PM.jpg ( 493.03K ) Number of downloads: 6


12z GFS
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_02_05_at_12.21.58_PM.jpg ( 612.66K ) Number of downloads: 4


12z NAM
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2018_02_05_at_12.24.21_PM.jpg ( 526.77K ) Number of downloads: 7


This post has been edited by travis3000: Feb 5 2018, 12:25 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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markj138
post Feb 5 2018, 01:33 PM
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This storm has stayed fairly consistent over the past 24 hrs,there still could be slight jog NW or SE ............ fingers crossed its NW laugh.gif

here is the snow totals form the use to be king

Attached File  nbHy_C0DQuCuRzbSDQklfg.png ( 1.19MB ) Number of downloads: 19


This post has been edited by markj138: Feb 5 2018, 01:34 PM
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plowguy
post Feb 5 2018, 02:09 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Feb 5 2018, 01:33 PM) *
This storm has stayed fairly consistent over the past 24 hrs,there still could be slight jog NW or SE ............ fingers crossed its NW laugh.gif

here is the snow totals form the use to be king

Attached File  nbHy_C0DQuCuRzbSDQklfg.png ( 1.19MB ) Number of downloads: 19

With that model, a SE shift won't make any real difference to anyone in S Ont.
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SNOWBOB11
post Feb 5 2018, 02:25 PM
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QUOTE(markj138 @ Feb 5 2018, 01:33 PM) *
This storm has stayed fairly consistent over the past 24 hrs,there still could be slight jog NW or SE ............ fingers crossed its NW laugh.gif

here is the snow totals form the use to be king

Attached File  nbHy_C0DQuCuRzbSDQklfg.png ( 1.19MB ) Number of downloads: 19

I guess that map includes ratios? Iíd be ok with another 10cm snowfall. It might not end up as the big storm we were gunning for but another moderate snowfall is better than nothing. Still time for some shifts NW as you say but even if thatís not the case thereís another storm or two showing up for after this one. We still have time be able to get a good storm before the winters out.
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markj138
post Feb 5 2018, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(SNOWBOB11 @ Feb 5 2018, 02:25 PM) *
I guess that map includes ratios? IÔŅĹd be ok with another 10cm snowfall. It might not end up as the big storm we were gunning for but another moderate snowfall is better than nothing. Still time for some shifts NW as you say but even if thatÔŅĹs not the case thereÔŅĹs another storm or two showing up for after this one. We still have time be able to get a good storm before the winters out.


Yeah the Euro map includes ratios,probably 15:1,it looks like the GFS came in the furthest SE so now we wait & see if the other models follow at 18z.
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markj138
post Feb 5 2018, 03:35 PM
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18 z 12k nam with Accumulated Positive Snow Depth Change

Attached File  namconus_asnowd_neus_19.png ( 135.62K ) Number of downloads: 3
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markj138
post Feb 5 2018, 03:40 PM
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Here is the nam kuchera ratio map

Attached File  snku_acc.us_ne.png ( 404K ) Number of downloads: 6
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