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> Spring 2018, Seasonal thread
MrMusic
post Apr 16 2018, 08:33 AM
Post #341




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i'm sure most of us won't buy it until we see it, but all long range ensembles show a more normal pattern moving in next weekend and remaining beyond. Lots of days in double digits and teens down here..... we'll see.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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PGM
post Apr 16 2018, 08:59 AM
Post #342




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The pattern is going to flip quick. 06z has last freeze potential Saturday night, then we're into the upper teens by day 10. Also seeing some 20s in the fantasy range. CFS weeklies also have warmer than average May temperatures. Straight from winter to summer is what I'm hoping.
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PGM
post Apr 16 2018, 09:05 AM
Post #343




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QUOTE(PGM @ Apr 16 2018, 09:59 AM) *
The pattern is going to flip quick. 06z has last freeze potential Saturday night, then we're into the upper teens by day 10. Also seeing some 20s in the fantasy range. CFS weeklies also have warmer than average May temperatures. Straight from winter to summer is what I'm hoping.


Worth noting mid teens is also pretty normal for late April. Average high IMBY in April 2017 was 17*C
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travis3000
post Apr 16 2018, 09:44 AM
Post #344




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Yep there appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel... models showing sunshine this coming weekend with highs close to 10C. Early next week looking even better with highs in the teens with more sun. Even a few 18-22C temps being thrown around in the fantasy range.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Apr 17 2018, 06:42 AM
Post #345




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Drool:

Attached File  gfs_T2m_us_46.png ( 159.61K ) Number of downloads: 4
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snowgeek93
post Apr 17 2018, 07:00 AM
Post #346




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April 17th and it's day 4 of consecutive snow cover here in mid-April! Astounding, never seen anything like this before.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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tml78
post Apr 17 2018, 07:07 AM
Post #347




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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Apr 17 2018, 08:00 AM) *
April 17th and it's day 4 of consecutive snow cover here in mid-April! Astounding, never seen anything like this before.


I'm sure the ice pellets has something to do with that...I guess much more difficult to melt.

I'm guessing it won't be till the first/second week of May till most of us in the GTA will be mowing lawns!
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tml78
post Apr 17 2018, 10:56 AM
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It's looking like with the current forecast most areas north of the GTA should keep all that ice cover till Sunday.
Pretty amazing if it does stand pat.
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snowgeek93
post Apr 17 2018, 01:39 PM
Post #349




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What month is this? blink.gif laugh.gif

Attached File  IMG_20180417_1244463001.jpg ( 1.73MB ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  IMG_20180417_1247220151.jpg ( 1.67MB ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  IMG_20180417_1359091941.jpg ( 1.86MB ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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travis3000
post Apr 17 2018, 02:21 PM
Post #350




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Member No.: 12,822





Barrie has 20cm+ of pure ice pellets on the ground, higher amounts in drifts. We already have a clay/rocky soil type here so snow takes a while to melt. I suspect it will be until at least next Monday before we see any grass, and until the first week of May until we are totally snow free. Simply unreal, never seen anything like this in my life. Once in a generation event. Alliston will probably lose their snow faster due to the sandy soil (it heats up faster). GFS pumping out 7-10C Sunday, 14C Monday, 17C Tuesday, and 18C Wednesday. That will put a serious dent in this ice especially with wall to wall sun each day.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Apr 17 2018, 02:22 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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rjb
post Apr 17 2018, 02:39 PM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Apr 17 2018, 03:21 PM) *
Barrie has 20cm+ of pure ice pellets on the ground, higher amounts in drifts. We already have a clay/rocky soil type here so snow takes a while to melt. I suspect it will be until at least next Monday before we see any grass, and until the first week of May until we are totally snow free. Simply unreal, never seen anything like this in my life. Once in a generation event. Alliston will probably lose their snow faster due to the sandy soil (it heats up faster). GFS pumping out 7-10C Sunday, 14C Monday, 17C Tuesday, and 18C Wednesday. That will put a serious dent in this ice especially with wall to wall sun each day.


I hope so, my neighbourhood is a mess. Nobody bothered to shovel the ice pellets/snow, it partially melted yesterday but the water had nowhere to go and most of the drains were blocked, the city didn't even bother to plow the roads.

The pools of water refroze overnight. Unless we sustained higher temperatures and sun it will continue to be a mess, people are just hoping it will melt.
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MrMusic
post Apr 17 2018, 02:48 PM
Post #352




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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Apr 17 2018, 03:21 PM) *
Barrie has 20cm+ of pure ice pellets on the ground, higher amounts in drifts. We already have a clay/rocky soil type here so snow takes a while to melt. I suspect it will be until at least next Monday before we see any grass, and until the first week of May until we are totally snow free. Simply unreal, never seen anything like this in my life. Once in a generation event. Alliston will probably lose their snow faster due to the sandy soil (it heats up faster). GFS pumping out 7-10C Sunday, 14C Monday, 17C Tuesday, and 18C Wednesday. That will put a serious dent in this ice especially with wall to wall sun each day.



And I assume you're in the same boat up there as we are down here - the ground underneath all this ice is not frozen whatsoever. Combination of that plus the warm April sun will totally wipe out these slabs of pellets.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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PGM
post Apr 18 2018, 10:10 AM
Post #353




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From: Northdale, London, ON
Member No.: 29,229





Last ten days of April should improve the averages somewhat. We're running near coldest on record ATM, definitely top ten (citation needed). High teens and perhaps twenties next week should correct this somewhat. Maybe we'll turn out two degrees below average versus six or eight?
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snowgeek93
post Apr 18 2018, 02:32 PM
Post #354




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4th consecutive day with snow cover here and 5th day overall where the ground has been all white. Simple unheard of here for mid-April! ohmy.gif

We did boost our snow totals though making it the snowiest winter here in 5 years. While I love snow, Spring is more than welcome at this point.


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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Ottawa blizzard
post Apr 18 2018, 07:14 PM
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QUOTE(PGM @ Apr 18 2018, 10:10 AM) *
Last ten days of April should improve the averages somewhat. We're running near coldest on record ATM, definitely top ten (citation needed). High teens and perhaps twenties next week should correct this somewhat. Maybe we'll turn out two degrees below average versus six or eight?

In Toronto, this spring likely still won't end up colder than that of 1975.

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/...975&Month=3

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/...975&Month=4

March 1975 averaged about two degrees colder than that of 2018. The warm-up next week, should push April's mean above that of April 1975.
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knorthern_knight
post Apr 19 2018, 01:13 AM
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Once we get past Sunday morning, that looks like the end overnight frost for southern Ontario. Ottawa/Montreal, and Quebec City will continue experiencing frosts a bit longer.
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PGM
post Apr 19 2018, 08:15 PM
Post #357




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QUOTE(Ottawa blizzard @ Apr 18 2018, 08:14 PM) *
In Toronto, this spring likely still won't end up colder than that of 1975.
...
March 1975 averaged about two degrees colder than that of 2018. The warm-up next week, should push April's mean above that of April 1975.


Good to know. Looks like 1975 was colder at YXU too.

https://twitter.com/flyingdutchwx/status/986957426485350400
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travis3000
post Apr 20 2018, 09:51 AM
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This mornings GFS and last nights CMC are raining on the parade of warmer spring weather. Enjoy the next 4 days because another miserable rainy period moves in next Weds-Thurs, by Friday areas south of Georgian Bay could be in for a dusting of snow with a daytime high in Southern ON on Friday of near 3-4C in the GTA and 0C in Barrie. The following weekend has went from beautiful to miserable with a soaking rainstorm on Saturday, to gusty cold arctic NW winds on the Sunday , all low to mid single digit highs, even below 0C overnight temps.

Its my guess that April will go down as one of the top 3 coldest Aprils in recorded history in the Greater Toronto Area, and especially in Simcoe County where constant NW winds have kept temps extremely low.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Apr 20 2018, 09:52 AM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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MrMusic
post Apr 20 2018, 01:55 PM
Post #359




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Member No.: 28,218





Glorious day!!! Full, warm sunshine! Most ice is gone, other than the large banks. But they'll be gone quickly.

Stunning one out there


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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MrMusic
post Apr 20 2018, 02:01 PM
Post #360




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Member No.: 28,218





QUOTE(travis3000 @ Apr 20 2018, 10:51 AM) *
This mornings GFS and last nights CMC are raining on the parade of warmer spring weather. Enjoy the next 4 days because another miserable rainy period moves in next Weds-Thurs, by Friday areas south of Georgian Bay could be in for a dusting of snow with a daytime high in Southern ON on Friday of near 3-4C in the GTA and 0C in Barrie. The following weekend has went from beautiful to miserable with a soaking rainstorm on Saturday, to gusty cold arctic NW winds on the Sunday , all low to mid single digit highs, even below 0C overnight temps.

Its my guess that April will go down as one of the top 3 coldest Aprils in recorded history in the Greater Toronto Area, and especially in Simcoe County where constant NW winds have kept temps extremely low.


I've looked through the 3 main ensemble sets today: GEFS, CMCE, EPS and there is nothing remarkable showing up at this point.

Def a 5 day warm spell coming up, and then a mid-week rain event. Possible 2nd rain event the following weekend but temp anomalies aren't showing anything too concerning this far out. The departure from normal during that 2nd rain event is less than the departure from normal we've got today and tomorrow. A few degrees off normal is fine this time of year. My current normal high is 13. It'll be 14 by next weekend.

I think once we get near the end of the warmer than normal spell Wed morning we'll have a better idea of what's coming that following weekend. But for now, enjoy the next 5 days!


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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