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> Feb.20 - warm and heavy rain S.Ont, possible record warm temp on Feb 20th.
humidex
post Feb 18 2018, 08:38 AM
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Southern Ontario appears to be in the bulls eye for record breaking warmth on Tuesday, We could also be getting heavy rains . Could this cause flooding events to be possible? We have plenty of ice on the creeks and rivers in my area and heavy rain and snow melt, causing the waters to rapidly rise could cause jamming and overflows. This is one to watch.

Table 15. Alerting parameters Environment Canada uses for issuing a Long Duration Rainfall Warning in the Winter
Alert Type Location Threshold Criteria
Warning National, except Nunavik* and British Columbia When 25 mm or more of rain is expected within 24 hours.


This post has been edited by humidex: Feb 18 2018, 12:43 PM
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humidex
post Feb 18 2018, 03:54 PM
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E.C from Quebec is now showing Special weather statements for the St Lawrence River region. E.C Ontario always seems reticent in posting Special weather statements.

Attached File  canada_e.png ( 95.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


Perhaps the record warm temps in the second image will push into S. Ont , St Lawrence, and Maritime regions.

Attached File  records_challenged_tues.jpg ( 31.47K ) Number of downloads: 0


In any event I'm getting the rain suit ready at work!

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frosty
post Feb 18 2018, 04:22 PM
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SWS for high rainfall amts are now in place for Ontario districts surrounding Georgian bay
Could get messy with flooding if this verifies
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humidex
post Feb 18 2018, 04:57 PM
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a couple of supporting images smile.gif

Attached File  US__1_.png ( 56.16K ) Number of downloads: 1



Attached File  download__4_.jpg ( 36.81K ) Number of downloads: 1
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snowball
post Feb 18 2018, 08:23 PM
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GRCA has posted a flood warning for the entire water shed. With 40-60mm forecasted and considering the double-digit temps, it's going to be very problematic.

Many areas will be in trouble... I expect my backyard to be a swimming pool.

This post has been edited by snowball: Feb 18 2018, 08:24 PM
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Jeremy404
post Feb 18 2018, 10:19 PM
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Also make sure the drains on your street are not covered by the snow banks and ice. The drain in front of my house had a nice 3 feet snow/ice bank covering it.
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MrMusic
post Feb 18 2018, 10:44 PM
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If not for the mild weather wiping out most of our snow last week, this could have been a very bad situation unfolding. I suspect some minor flooding still, but other than snowbanks, and some shallow snow depth in shaded areas, not a lot of snow left.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
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Stl
post Feb 18 2018, 10:53 PM
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QUOTE(Jeremy404 @ Feb 18 2018, 10:19 PM) *
Also make sure the drains on your street are not covered by the snow banks and ice. The drain in front of my house had a nice 3 feet snow/ice bank covering it.


Shouldn't the city take care of this ?
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frosty
post Feb 18 2018, 11:55 PM
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QUOTE(snowball @ Feb 18 2018, 08:23 PM) *
GRCA has posted a flood warning for the entire water shed. With 40-60mm forecasted and considering the double-digit temps, it's going to be very problematic.

Many areas will be in trouble... I expect my backyard to be a swimming pool.

Kawartha Lakes conservation has a similar warning in place
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knorthern_knight
post Feb 19 2018, 11:30 AM
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QUACK QUACK tongue.gif BTW, in the weather text, "-RA" is light rain, and "RA" is moderate rain. Just hope you don't see "+RA" (heavy rain).

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z 19FEB 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   15 02/19 15Z   35     32    0.00         35     32    0.0
   18 02/19 18Z   36     35    0.03 -RA     36     32    0.0  0.03
   21 02/19 21Z   36     35    0.10 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.13
   24 02/20 00Z   36     35    0.20 RA      37     35    0.0  0.33
   27 02/20 03Z   38     38    0.20 RA      38     35    0.0  0.53
   30 02/20 06Z   44     44    0.01 -RA     44     35    0.0  0.54
   33 02/20 09Z   45     45    0.30 RA      45     43    0.0  0.84
   36 02/20 12Z   48     46    0.15 RA      48     43    0.0  0.99
   39 02/20 15Z   49     48    0.13 -RA     49     47    0.0  1.12
   42 02/20 18Z   51     49    0.23 RA      51     47    0.0  1.35
   45 02/20 21Z   52     51    0.10 -RA     52     51    0.0  1.45
   48 02/21 00Z   53     51    0.16 -RA     53     51    0.0  1.61
   51 02/21 03Z   51     51    0.17 RA      53     51    0.0  1.78
   54 02/21 06Z   51     50    0.26 RA      53     50    0.0  2.04
   57 02/21 09Z   51     50    0.29 RA      52     51    0.0  2.33
   60 02/21 12Z   49     49    0.22 RA      52     49    0.0  2.55
   63 02/21 15Z   49     49    0.21 RA      49     49    0.0  2.76
   66 02/21 18Z   41     37    0.05 -RA     49     41    0.0  2.81
   69 02/21 21Z   37     28    0.01 -RA     41     37    0.0  2.82
   72 02/22 00Z   34     22    0.00 -RA     41     34    0.0
   75 02/22 03Z   32     21    0.00
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Lake effect
post Feb 19 2018, 11:55 AM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Feb 19 2018, 11:30 AM) *
QUACK QUACK tongue.gif BTW, in the weather text, "-RA" is light rain, and "RA" is moderate rain. Just hope you don't see "+RA" (heavy rain).

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z 19FEB 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
   15 02/19 15Z   35     32    0.00         35     32    0.0
   18 02/19 18Z   36     35    0.03 -RA     36     32    0.0  0.03
   21 02/19 21Z   36     35    0.10 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.13
   24 02/20 00Z   36     35    0.20 RA      37     35    0.0  0.33
   27 02/20 03Z   38     38    0.20 RA      38     35    0.0  0.53
   30 02/20 06Z   44     44    0.01 -RA     44     35    0.0  0.54
   33 02/20 09Z   45     45    0.30 RA      45     43    0.0  0.84
   36 02/20 12Z   48     46    0.15 RA      48     43    0.0  0.99
   39 02/20 15Z   49     48    0.13 -RA     49     47    0.0  1.12
   42 02/20 18Z   51     49    0.23 RA      51     47    0.0  1.35
   45 02/20 21Z   52     51    0.10 -RA     52     51    0.0  1.45
   48 02/21 00Z   53     51    0.16 -RA     53     51    0.0  1.61
   51 02/21 03Z   51     51    0.17 RA      53     51    0.0  1.78
   54 02/21 06Z   51     50    0.26 RA      53     50    0.0  2.04
   57 02/21 09Z   51     50    0.29 RA      52     51    0.0  2.33
   60 02/21 12Z   49     49    0.22 RA      52     49    0.0  2.55
   63 02/21 15Z   49     49    0.21 RA      49     49    0.0  2.76
   66 02/21 18Z   41     37    0.05 -RA     49     41    0.0  2.81
   69 02/21 21Z   37     28    0.01 -RA     41     37    0.0  2.82
   72 02/22 00Z   34     22    0.00 -RA     41     34    0.0
   75 02/22 03Z   32     21    0.00



3 inches of rain...on frozen ground, with melt water. This is not going to end well.
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snowbelt
post Feb 19 2018, 12:07 PM
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Yes , I think this is going to be a big problem for a lot of folks near any river over the next week . Still a decent snow pack up here (10-20cm) with a lot of ice on those rivers and tie that into all this rain , you have a perfect script for major ice damming and damaging floods in river areas .
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GreatWhiteTornad...
post Feb 19 2018, 12:33 PM
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I assume flooding around lake Erie will be bad.

The ice likely will create problems along with 5 inches of rain in next few days
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humidex
post Feb 19 2018, 04:41 PM
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QUOTE(snowball @ Feb 18 2018, 08:23 PM) *
GRCA has posted a flood warning for the entire water shed. With 40-60mm forecasted and considering the double-digit temps, it's going to be very problematic.

Many areas will be in trouble... I expect my backyard to be a swimming pool.

Our Conservation area is called the GRCA, also.
-Ganaraska Region Conservation Area, by coincidence. Our Conservation Authority has been silent so far. mellow.gif

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knorthern_knight
post Feb 19 2018, 05:52 PM
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To summarize, the storm according to the Feb 19th 12Z GFS
  • 4.13 inches at CYXU London International Airport
  • 3.74 inches at CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
  • 3.06 inches at CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
  • 2.95 inches at CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport
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snowgeek93
post Feb 19 2018, 06:19 PM
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This weather pattern is awful regardless of time of year and we got another 2 days of this ahead of us... mad.gif dry.gif


--------------------
Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2017/2018: 151.5cm (Weak La Nina)
2016/2017: 142.6cm (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)
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Apocalypse
post Feb 19 2018, 06:40 PM
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Feb 19 2018, 06:19 PM) *
This weather pattern is awful regardless of time of year and we got another 2 days of this ahead of us... mad.gif dry.gif


This pattern seems very Vancouver like so I'm used to it. laugh.gif
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TriC
post Feb 19 2018, 07:57 PM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Feb 19 2018, 05:52 PM) *
To summarize, the storm according to the Feb 19th 12Z GFS
  • 4.13 inches at CYXU London International Airport
  • 3.74 inches at CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
  • 3.06 inches at CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
  • 2.95 inches at CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport


For London its a good thing we have three large flood control dams upstream of London. These structures reduce flood damage throughout the river system, and greatly enhance the protection provided by the London river Dyke System. As this is normal for this area as we get a ton of lake effect snow and Lake Breeze thunderstorms in the summer that park over the city or near to it!

http://thamesriver.on.ca/water-management/...on-dyke-system/

http://thamesriver.on.ca/water-management/...rol-structures/

This post has been edited by TriC: Feb 19 2018, 08:00 PM


--------------------
-------------------------------------------------------------

Live HD Webcam view from London, Ontario. With Time Lapse Loop.
Click to see current weather conditions.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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humidex
post Feb 20 2018, 06:08 AM
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Just checked the snow pack outside. It has compressed to about 15 cm. We have moderate rainfall and 4c. The main weather event is about to begin today.

ps. Did I mentionI work at a water pollution control plant we maintain the Towns 2 sewage plants and 6 storm water pumping stations. This is going to be interesting. biggrin.gif

Will post some River pics t'nite.

This post has been edited by humidex: Feb 20 2018, 06:09 AM
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players1
post Feb 20 2018, 07:39 AM
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Grand river webcams.

couple web cams off Grand river.
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