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> LES March 16/17th, possible
Lake effect
post Mar 15 2018, 01:27 PM
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Not much showing up in the models, except a bit tomorrow with the 3k NAM, but after the last lot which they missed, thought it was worth putting something up in case it happens. Lakes are wide open, but cold. Temps forecast to be between -3 and -8 for the period. Winds start this evening in NNW, swing all the way round to WNW, then back again to NW before dying out later on saturday.

My predictions are to be taken with a big grain of salt...could be a nothing-burger:

satellite:

Attached File  t_a1.18073.1849.LakeHuron.143.250m.jpg ( 8.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


Wind directions over period and likely position of any squalls:

Friday morning

Attached File  hwn_24.gif ( 39.25K ) Number of downloads: 1


Friday evening

Attached File  hwn_36.gif ( 37.58K ) Number of downloads: 1


Saturday morning

Attached File  hwn_48.gif ( 35.59K ) Number of downloads: 1


NAM 3k:

radar tomorrow afternoon, otherwise not much

Attached File  nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_26.png ( 162.53K ) Number of downloads: 1


Total snowfall

Attached File  nam3km_asnow_neus_48.png ( 152.07K ) Number of downloads: 1


My predictions:

Black trace-5cm
Red 5-15cms

Attached File  my_predictions.jpg ( 261.96K ) Number of downloads: 3







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frosty
post Mar 15 2018, 02:34 PM
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I donít know if this is the right place to mention
I found a free app called Windy that will run on iOS and Android devices
Uses GFS, NAM and ECM forecast models to display wind, precipitation, isolines over user specified area

Very good app on my iPad mini
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Lake effect
post Mar 15 2018, 04:05 PM
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QUOTE(frosty @ Mar 15 2018, 02:34 PM) *
I donít know if this is the right place to mention
I found a free app called Windy that will run on iOS and Android devices
Uses GFS, NAM and ECM forecast models to display wind, precipitation, isolines over user specified area

Very good app on my iPad mini


Used the web version ,which is a bit clunky, but will try the app. yes, very good. I am a windsurfer, so a bit obsessed with these things too.
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jsut
post Mar 15 2018, 04:09 PM
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It's snowing pretty good in downtown toronto right now, and there is plenty coming off lake huron on the radar.
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frosty
post Mar 15 2018, 04:33 PM
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QUOTE(jsut @ Mar 15 2018, 04:09 PM) *
It's snowing pretty good in downtown toronto right now, and there is plenty coming off lake huron on the radar.

Likewise here, random hits of heavy snow then nothing. Should be interesting to see what develops once it cools off later. Still 2 C
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snowbelt
post Mar 15 2018, 07:23 PM
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Some decent squalls forming over G bay right now heading SE toward the Barrie area . Light squalls here over the last couple hours with no accumulation
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Lake effect
post Mar 15 2018, 08:53 PM
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QUOTE(snowbelt @ Mar 15 2018, 07:23 PM) *
Some decent squalls forming over G bay right now heading SE toward the Barrie area . Light squalls here over the last couple hours with no accumulation


Don't think this bit will come to much. More organized bands should form later...maybe.
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Lake effect
post Mar 15 2018, 09:39 PM
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Looking at the latest wind forecasts I think Collingwood Creemore area may get completely pasted overnight.
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travis3000
post Mar 15 2018, 09:46 PM
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Its snowing in Barrie now smile.gif Drove through the most intense squall about an hour ago between Cookstown and Thornton on HWY 27. Could barely see anything in front of you.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Mar 15 2018, 09:47 PM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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snowbelt
post Mar 15 2018, 10:00 PM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Mar 15 2018, 09:39 PM) *
Looking at the latest wind forecasts I think Collingwood Creemore area may get completely pasted overnight.


I will let you know , I am just south of Creemore .
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Lake effect
post Mar 16 2018, 06:46 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Mar 15 2018, 09:46 PM) *
Its snowing in Barrie now smile.gif Drove through the most intense squall about an hour ago between Cookstown and Thornton on HWY 27. Could barely see anything in front of you.


I saw the yellow on the radar, looked awesome. Was wondering if there might have been thundersnow.
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Lake effect
post Mar 16 2018, 07:41 AM
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So far the prediction for GB is holding. My gut feeling is that if temps get much above -2 today the squalls will fizzle out as they start to head Eastwards, however, once the temps drop again after dark, a really potent squall could form off Huron and join forces with a GB band and hammer areas on the Bruce Peninsula through Barrie and Orillia. This may last an hour or so, before winds head back into the NW and start to moderate, but I woukd expect Barrie to get a few cms from this last phase. So far in North Barrie we have had bout 3cms, I suspect South West Barrie did better being closer to this mornings squall.
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Lake effect
post Mar 16 2018, 08:41 AM
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If the temps don't rise too much, this bad boy should start heading Eastwards around midday, hitting Barrie soon after. Looks pretty juiced up, and I suspect some people will see 15cms...if it holds up. If it doesn't best chance is overnight.

Attached File  Screenshot_20180316_093802.jpg ( 210.21K ) Number of downloads: 0
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Lake effect
post Mar 16 2018, 09:23 AM
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Just measured and we had between 4 and 5 cms last night...expect the same again...at least.
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travis3000
post Mar 16 2018, 09:45 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Mar 16 2018, 09:41 AM) *
If the temps don't rise too much, this bad boy should start heading Eastwards around midday, hitting Barrie soon after. Looks pretty juiced up, and I suspect some people will see 15cms...if it holds up. If it doesn't best chance is overnight.

Attached File  Screenshot_20180316_093802.jpg ( 210.21K ) Number of downloads: 0


Remember, it's not accumulating nearly as fast as the ground is half thawed. Despite Alliston getting affected for the past 12+ hours, accumulations there are only between 4-8cm.

Id also worry about drier air coming in this afternoon, may put a damper on the LES bands.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Mar 16 2018, 09:56 AM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Mar 16 2018, 10:02 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Mar 16 2018, 09:45 AM) *
Remember, it's not accumulating nearly as fast as the ground is half thawed. Despite Alliston getting affected for the past 12+ hours, accumulations there are only between 4-8cm.

Id also worry about drier air coming in this afternoon, may put a damper on the LES bands.


Ground here is completely covered and solid. Took a while for it to settle on paving last night (which is where I measured, so maybe we had more). I suspect north of Alliston, on slightly higher elevations will have done better.

By the way, exciting discussions in council on Monday...new 19 storey hotel/condo complex where Hooters is. Also rezoning for 5 points tower...hope they aren't too late in the cycle...would hate to see these get stalled.
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travis3000
post Mar 16 2018, 10:06 AM
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QUOTE(Lake effect @ Mar 16 2018, 11:02 AM) *
Ground here is completely covered and solid. Took a while for it to settle on paving last night (which is where I measured, so maybe we had more). I suspect north of Alliston, on slightly higher elevations will have done better.

By the way, exciting discussions in council on Monday...new 19 storey hotel/condo complex where Hooters is. Also rezoning for 5 points tower...hope they aren't too late in the cycle...would hate to see these get stalled.


True, ground in Alliston is thawed. They had 8-10cm of snow that fell on Tuesday night into Wednesday AM and by later the next day it was gone completely. All it took was 2C and a bit of sunshine. Barrie I find keeps its snow longer and it takes ALOT to melt it. Im worried about some drier air coming in this afternoon which could weaken the squall as it moves east.

Interesting on the 19 storey hotel/condo. I say bring it on, Barrie needs to continue to re-do its waterfront. There is high demand for living by the lake so it makes sense.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Mar 16 2018, 10:08 AM


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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Lake effect
post Mar 16 2018, 11:13 AM
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QUOTE(travis3000 @ Mar 16 2018, 10:06 AM) *
True, ground in Alliston is thawed. They had 8-10cm of snow that fell on Tuesday night into Wednesday AM and by later the next day it was gone completely. All it took was 2C and a bit of sunshine. Barrie I find keeps its snow longer and it takes ALOT to melt it. Im worried about some drier air coming in this afternoon which could weaken the squall as it moves east.

Interesting on the 19 storey hotel/condo. I say bring it on, Barrie needs to continue to re-do its waterfront. There is high demand for living by the lake so it makes sense.


Agreed on both points. I think overnight has the most potential, but touch and go.

The Barrie waterfront is the greatest missed opportunity in the North America. I get that people don't want a wall of high rises, and a natural environment, but at the same time the only restaurant that actually sits on the lake is Hooters FFS! The area around the marina and sea scout place should be developed to allow a number of bars and restaurants, and high rises should be encouraged in the core. Keep the parks, but make the surrounding more appealing to people other than just anglers and pensioners! I think Lehman is a great mayor and is trying to move things in the right direction but he is up against some really backward thinking and also powerful interests who have a stake in keeping things just as they are.
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snowbelt
post Mar 16 2018, 11:23 AM
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Nothing much happening here except for some passing flurries . Had some decent squall activity last night though giving us a quick 3-4 cm . Still had some snow from the squalls on Tuesday night as well. Heading to Barrie right now and by the looks of radar I might be in for a bad drive getting over there . G Bay squall looks to be between my place and Barrie at the moment.
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travis3000
post Mar 16 2018, 12:34 PM
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Been flurrying here all morning but not really accumulating to much.


--------------------
Barrie ,ON 2017/2018 Snowfall:
Alliston in ( )
October: 2cm (0cm)
November: 30cm (13cm)
December: 70.5cm (52cm)
January: 49.5cm (27cm)
February: 39cm (30cm)
March: 20cm (18cm)
April: 33cm (19cm)
SEASON TOTAL...
Barrie: 244cm
Alliston: 159cm


--
Alliston history
2016/2017: 148cm
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
2013/2014 Total: 200cm
2012/2013: 140cm
2011/2012: 103cm
2010/2011: 213.5cm
2009/2010: 97cm
2008/2009: 232cm
2007/2008: 291cm
2006/2007: 84.8cm
LAST 11 YEAR AVERAGE: 158cm

Travis
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