Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

20 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> April 11-? pcpn event, south Ontario to Montreal, rain, freezing rain, snow, pellets, tstorms, the kitchen sink
barrieON
post Apr 12 2018, 09:17 PM
Post #21




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 131
Joined: 23-January 08
From: Barrie, Ontario
Member No.: 12,910





Any ideas on how the roads will be Monday morning? I need to drive from Barrie to Pearson airport. Getting out of this lousy weather and headed for the Dominican Republic.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MrMusic
post Apr 12 2018, 09:26 PM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,540
Joined: 6-February 13
Member No.: 28,218





QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Apr 12 2018, 05:24 PM) *
Apr 12, 12Z GFS text forecast 04/12 12Z to 04/18 12Z. Note that I'm over-riding precip type with temperatures. E.g. where the forecast calls for straight rain with temps of 30F, I'm calling it freezing rain. As usual, micro-cliimate (elevation, distance from lake, etc) will affect local freezing rain duration and amounts.
  • London 2.02 inches water-equivalant mostly rain, except for a bit of (wet?) snow 17th/18th. But with temps at or just below freezing, don't expect it to accummulate. Freezing rain 21Z 14th to 06Z 15th (5PM EDT to 2AM EDT)
  • Waterloo 2.48 inches. Freezing rain 11AM 14th to 8AM 15th. Wet snow on 17th/18th
  • Hamilton 2.49 inches. Wet snow 17th+18th. Freezing rain 11PM 14th to 2AM 15th. That's the airport. Higher elevations may get more freezing rain.
  • Toronto 2.99 inches, Wet snow on the 17th. Freezing rain 2PM 14th to 8AM 15th. That's the airport. As you head north, expect more. Also some wet snow on the 17th
  • Ottawa 4.40 inches. Freezing rain 2PM to 5PM of the 15th. Wet snow 17th/18th changing to rain in the morning.
  • Montreal 3.84 inches. Freezing rain 11AM to 2PM of the 15th. Wet snow overnight 17th/18th, changing ro rain in the morning
  • Quebec City 2.14 inches. Freezing rain 5AM to 11AM of the 16th. Wet snow beginning morning of the 18th


Thx for this...not bad for my area. FYI, Hamilton airport is the higher terrain around here. Almost as high as you can get. For YHM to only get 3 hours of freezing rain gives me more peace about my spot downtown near the harbour staying all rain.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
rjb
post Apr 12 2018, 09:25 PM
Post #23




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 204
Joined: 11-May 14
Member No.: 29,482





QUOTE(travis3000 @ Apr 12 2018, 09:05 PM) *
My thoughts

Friday:
bands of showers roll in Friday morning across SW ON ahead of the low pressure. A steadier band moves in Friday afternoon across the GTA north into Muskoka. This will be moderate but steady band of rain.

Overnight Friday the rain will become mixed with snow and sleet across Muskoka and Sudbury. Expect heavier snow to be falling in this area at some point Fri night. Rain keeps falling across SW ON north to Barrie and east towards Kingston. It will move into the Ottawa area Friday night as well.

Saturday: Rain becomes mixed with sleet and wet snow early Sat AM across Bruce County and Simcoe County east to Bobcaygeon and Kawarthas. Its still snowing in North Bay down to Muskoka and Tobermory area. Its still raining in Toronto on SW.

Periods of freezing rain begin Sat early afternoon across S ON from Goderich across to Kitchener, Guelph. Orangeville, Shelburne and could become very heavy. The freezing rain will start impacting the GTA Sat afternoon as well. Freezing rain continues off and on through the night across the Goderich to Mount Forest, Kitchener, Toronto corridor. All rain from Windsor to London.

Heavy wet snow mixed with sleet will come about as far south as Barrie by Saturday afternoon and evening but accumulations will be under 5-7cm. Freezing rain continues to impact the Goderich to Kitchener to Hamilton and Niagara, possibly going as far south as London.

Sunday

Periods of freezing rain will continue into the morning hours, after a bit of a lull overnight Sat, things will ramp up early Monday morning with another band in the similar area. Im concerned for an area from Goderich to Kitchener/Guelph, Orangeville, Mount Forest. Basically all of Huron County, Wellington County, Dufferin County where up to 25mm of ice is possible (power outages). The GTA will also see ice, just not near the lakes…more inland by 5km or so. Im thinking 8-12mm of ice there.

Freezing rain and sleet will eventually give way to plain rain Sunday afternoon (1-4pm) as temps rise above 0C. Heavy rain will continue Sun night and Monday AM before temps drop Monday and flurries develop in a NW flow. The flurries will continue right into Tuesday on the west side of the low. Some areas could pick up 1-5cm in backlash snows.



Hi Travis,

your post, strange as it sounds gives me some relief. Of course I am worried about the Guelph, Mt Forest, Kitcherner etc area but in my case, I live in Toronto, just east of the DVP and slightly north of Lawrence. Unfortunately I am not near the lake so I should get (according to your post) about 12 mm, which is bad but not terrible.

Accuweather was showing over 20 mm of freezing rain for my area, I found it odd that it wasn't showing much for Mount Forest, where somebody said the GFS was showing large amounts. I don't understand very well but it looked inconsistent to me since it was also not showing much for the west side of the GTA, including areas to the north.

Hope it's not more than that and hope that western Ontario doesn't get hammered so bad, but I guess that 48 hours from the even it's not going to change much is it?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MrMusic
post Apr 12 2018, 09:28 PM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,540
Joined: 6-February 13
Member No.: 28,218





QUOTE(travis3000 @ Apr 12 2018, 09:05 PM) *
My thoughts

Friday:
bands of showers roll in Friday morning across SW ON ahead of the low pressure. A steadier band moves in Friday afternoon across the GTA north into Muskoka. This will be moderate but steady band of rain.

Overnight Friday the rain will become mixed with snow and sleet across Muskoka and Sudbury. Expect heavier snow to be falling in this area at some point Fri night. Rain keeps falling across SW ON north to Barrie and east towards Kingston. It will move into the Ottawa area Friday night as well.

Saturday: Rain becomes mixed with sleet and wet snow early Sat AM across Bruce County and Simcoe County east to Bobcaygeon and Kawarthas. Its still snowing in North Bay down to Muskoka and Tobermory area. Its still raining in Toronto on SW.

Periods of freezing rain begin Sat early afternoon across S ON from Goderich across to Kitchener, Guelph. Orangeville, Shelburne and could become very heavy. The freezing rain will start impacting the GTA Sat afternoon as well. Freezing rain continues off and on through the night across the Goderich to Mount Forest, Kitchener, Toronto corridor. All rain from Windsor to London.

Heavy wet snow mixed with sleet will come about as far south as Barrie by Saturday afternoon and evening but accumulations will be under 5-7cm. Freezing rain continues to impact the Goderich to Kitchener to Hamilton and Niagara, possibly going as far south as London.

Sunday

Periods of freezing rain will continue into the morning hours, after a bit of a lull overnight Sat, things will ramp up early Monday morning with another band in the similar area. Im concerned for an area from Goderich to Kitchener/Guelph, Orangeville, Mount Forest. Basically all of Huron County, Wellington County, Dufferin County where up to 25mm of ice is possible (power outages). The GTA will also see ice, just not near the lakes…more inland by 5km or so. Im thinking 8-12mm of ice there.

Freezing rain and sleet will eventually give way to plain rain Sunday afternoon (1-4pm) as temps rise above 0C. Heavy rain will continue Sun night and Monday AM before temps drop Monday and flurries develop in a NW flow. The flurries will continue right into Tuesday on the west side of the low. Some areas could pick up 1-5cm in backlash snows.


So if I'm reading this right, it might not be the nicest weekend?

lol...thx for the detailed write-up....really helpful. Especially for those who might be in line for a nasty ice storm.


--------------------
Winter 2017-2018

December 12, 2017: 10cm - Welcome back winter!!
13: 5cm
14: 12cm
22: 9cm
23: 9cm
24: 16cm

JAN 2018
1: 5cm
8: 10cm
15: 6cm
29: 16cm

FEB 2018
8: 13cm
10-11: 18cm



Winter 2016-2017

Dec 2016: 30cm
Jan 2017: 5cm
Feb 2017: 7cm
March 2017: 35cm!! Finally!

Days with snow on the ground: 25
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
frosty
post Apr 12 2018, 10:17 PM
Post #25




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 113
Joined: 10-January 12
From: Mississauga Erindale ON
Member No.: 26,330





QUOTE(dsichewski @ Apr 12 2018, 10:00 PM) *
Should be a fun time in Guelph!

Yeah we had plans to visit Rockwood on Saturday evening but postponed based on what’s likely heading between here and up that way blink.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowbelt
post Apr 13 2018, 12:32 AM
Post #26




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 243
Joined: 15-December 14
From: Northern Dufferin County
Member No.: 30,103





Not looking forward to this weekend at all . I'm right in the bulls eye of this nasty weather coming . I remember the ice storm up in this area a couple years ago and it was really bad . Power was out for 5 days and some places it was out for over a week. Working this weekend as well at YYZ so the drive up and down the escarpment is going to be tricky to say the least . I might have to just call in "sick"

Thanks for the forecasts and input everyone , I will be paying close attention to this storm thread for sure......
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
robv1989
post Apr 13 2018, 12:55 AM
Post #27




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 244
Joined: 24-December 12
From: Stoney Creek / Hamilton
Member No.: 27,389





Please tell me I did this wrong? I haven't used pivotal weather before. GFS ice totals, correct me if I'm wrong but this would be devastating? 0.93 inches of freezing rain :/

This post has been edited by robv1989: Apr 13 2018, 12:59 AM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Ice_Storm.jpg ( 402.97K ) Number of downloads: 22
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
knorthern_knight
post Apr 13 2018, 02:33 AM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 896
Joined: 3-December 10
From: Greater Toronto
Member No.: 24,490





Apr 13, 00Z GFS text forecast 04/13 00Z to 04/19 00Z. Things have gotten uglier for southern Ontario since the previous run. As usual, micro-cliimate (elevation, distance from lake, etc) will affect local freezing rain duration and amounts.
  • London 3.67 inches water-equivalant mostly rain, except for a bit of (wet?) snow 17th. But with temps at or just below freezing, don't expect it to accummulate. MODERATE freezing rain 14th 2PM EDT to 8PM EDT followed by 6 hours or so of light freezing rain.. Amounts possibly up to 0.61 inch (15 mm). Temperatures will be hovering right at the freezing point, so actual amounts of freezing rain may vary.
  • Waterloo 5.01 inches. MODERATE freezing rain 11AM to 2PM 14th, 0.58 inch (15mm) and again, temps hovering at the freezing point so amounts may vary. Then the temperature drops and they get 6 hours of moderate pellets 0.62 inch (15mm). Some more light pellets and freezing rain overnight 14th/15th (approx 5 mm). For variety, throw in thunderstorms overnight 15th/16th and wet snow on the 17th.
  • Hamilton 4.90 inches. MODERATE freezing rain 2PM to 8PM 14th followed by 12hours of light freezing rain. Amount 0.79 inch (20 mm) Thunderstorms overnight 15th/16th and wet snow 17th
  • Toronto 5.06 inches, A mixed bag of freezing rain and pellets 11AM 14th to 11AM 15th. Amount 1.38 inches (35 mm) but can't tell how much will be pellets versus freezing rain. Thunderstorms morning of the 16th and some wet snow on the 17th
  • Ottawa 2.76 inches. Brief mixed bag of pellets and freezing rain late afternoon and evening of the 15th. Pellets and freezing rain combine for 0.42 inches (10 mm), but again not splitting out amounts. Rain on the 17th/18th with wet snow overnight.
  • Montreal 2.67 inches. Mostly rain, with some snow. No freezing rain. Thunderstorm overnight 16th/17th Wet snow overnight 17th/18th, changing ro rain in the morning
  • Quebec City 2.35 inches water equiv; mostly snow.. Snow turning to moderate pellets (0.47 inch = 12 mm) turning to light freezing rain in the evening (0..09 inch = 2 or 3 mm). Thunderstorm afternoon of the 17th.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
robv1989
post Apr 13 2018, 05:09 AM
Post #29




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 244
Joined: 24-December 12
From: Stoney Creek / Hamilton
Member No.: 27,389





Well, the GFS totals 06z run went up from 0.93 inches to 0.95 inches lol, not looking forward to this at all. The nam is around 0.32 inches...hope it's right. I don't have to drive anywhere I just don't want to lose power.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowball
post Apr 13 2018, 06:57 AM
Post #30




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 278
Joined: 7-March 08
From: Kitchener
Member No.: 14,273





If history tells, NAM doesn't do well with ice totals. From what I have seen of GFS ice in the past it's the overly pessimistic of the two. Which concerns me I think the most.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
rjb
post Apr 13 2018, 07:22 AM
Post #31




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 204
Joined: 11-May 14
Member No.: 29,482





QUOTE
Statements

4:30 AM EDT Friday 13 April 2018
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Potential ice storm for parts of Southern Ontario Saturday into Sunday. Heavy rain potential later Sunday.

Rain ahead of a slow moving system is expected to change to freezing rain early Saturday morning as colder air moves into the region. The freezing rain may persist for a few hours before changing to ice pellets. Several centimetres of ice pellets are likely during the day.

Latest analysis is suggesting that there will be a lull in the precipitation for much of Saturday night with maybe some patchy freezing drizzle. However, another surge of moisture will move back into the region late overnight or early Sunday morning. A prolonged period of freezing rain is possible Sunday before changing over to rain heavy at times later in the day.

There remains considerable uncertainty with regards to how long the freezing rain will last before changing over to rain on Sunday. However, the potential exists for some locales to see amounts in excess of 20 mm of freezing rain on Sunday.

Ice accumulations of this magnitude combined with gusty northeast winds to 60 km/h may result in widespread power outages due to fallen tree limbs and power lines.

Winter driving condition are expected on untreated roads Saturday and Sunday.

Flooding may become a threat in some areas by Sunday evening.

Rain is expected to taper off later Monday.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ONstorm@canada.ca or tweet reports using #ONStorm.


is this right?

This post has been edited by rjb: Apr 13 2018, 07:23 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
puttin
post Apr 13 2018, 07:24 AM
Post #32




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,826
Joined: 22-January 08
From: Newmarket
Member No.: 12,834





QUOTE(snowball @ Apr 13 2018, 07:57 AM) *
If history tells, NAM doesn't do well with ice totals. From what I have seen of GFS ice in the past it's the overly pessimistic of the two. Which concerns me I think the most.


So what about Newmarket? I know this storm is coming, I just don't want to lose hydro... Too many frozen turkeys in my freezer! Hey, they were on sale! Be safe everyone. Glad it's a weekend event, I'm staying put at home. I just know this is going to be ugly out there. Are we at the end of this miserable weather yet?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
GreatWhiteTornad...
post Apr 13 2018, 09:17 AM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 954
Joined: 12-February 13
From: Vaughan, Ontario
Member No.: 28,279





Does seems someone is going to get it really bad.
At least this is warmer time of the year and the ice should melt quite quickly as soon as sun arrives vs Dec 2013
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
puttin
post Apr 13 2018, 09:44 AM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,826
Joined: 22-January 08
From: Newmarket
Member No.: 12,834





QUOTE(GreatWhiteTornado @ Apr 13 2018, 10:17 AM) *
Does seems someone is going to get it really bad.
At least this is warmer time of the year and the ice should melt quite quickly as soon as sun arrives vs Dec 2013


Does anyone know about salting & sanding contracts being finished for the winter? Surely there must be contingencies for late spring storms... I would like to think they could lay down some brine to get ahead of the game...otherwise, the roads are going to be a real mess....Oh Mr. Plowguy.....how does this work?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JFK
post Apr 13 2018, 09:49 AM
Post #35




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 423
Joined: 4-March 14
From: Montreal
Member No.: 29,360





Here's the Euro:



When was the last time Ontario got slammed with a storm and Quebec basically walks away unscathed ? Assuming of course this actually happens !


This post has been edited by JFK: Apr 13 2018, 09:51 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
rjb
post Apr 13 2018, 10:06 AM
Post #36




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 204
Joined: 11-May 14
Member No.: 29,482





warnings are up
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
plowguy
post Apr 13 2018, 10:08 AM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 758
Joined: 17-February 09
From: brantford
Member No.: 17,615





QUOTE(puttin @ Apr 13 2018, 10:44 AM) *
Does anyone know about salting & sanding contracts being finished for the winter? Surely there must be contingencies for late spring storms... I would like to think they could lay down some brine to get ahead of the game...otherwise, the roads are going to be a real mess....Oh Mr. Plowguy.....how does this work?

The roads will be treated as it is actually an anual contract. The private lots are another story. There has been a salt shortage this year and contracts generally end april 1st or 15th. The timing is about as good as it gets with the cold and ice Sat afternoon/evening. EC at this time is saying a lull in precipitation for much of Sat. night and starting back up Sunday morning transitioning to rain.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
puttin
post Apr 13 2018, 10:13 AM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,826
Joined: 22-January 08
From: Newmarket
Member No.: 12,834





QUOTE(plowguy @ Apr 13 2018, 11:08 AM) *
The roads will be treated as it is actually an anual contract. The private lots are another story. There has been a salt shortage this year and contracts generally end april 1st or 15th. The timing is about as good as it gets with the cold and ice Sat afternoon/evening. EC at this time is saying a lull in precipitation for much of Sat. night and starting back up Sunday morning transitioning to rain.


Thanks Plowguy!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
plowguy
post Apr 13 2018, 10:18 AM
Post #39




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 758
Joined: 17-February 09
From: brantford
Member No.: 17,615





QUOTE(puttin @ Apr 13 2018, 11:13 AM) *
Thanks Plowguy!

Anytime! I'm not sure if my area will have a lot of icing on the roads. I would think trees and power lines will be more affected for areas south of the 401. Hamilton has a freezing rain warning but Brantford and areas west are is still a weather statement.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
GreatWhiteTornad...
post Apr 13 2018, 10:42 AM
Post #40




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 954
Joined: 12-February 13
From: Vaughan, Ontario
Member No.: 28,279





Heading to Midland tomorrow during the day.
Shall be interesting, in no rush to get anywhere quick just take time enjoy winters last kick at the cat.

In the event please prepare for power issues.
Full tank of gas is a huge plus.
Heading to dollar store to get some a few battery banks for phones. Never hurts to have these charged.
Need beer wine too.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

20 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 25th April 2018 - 06:45 PM