May 24-26 Southwest (So. Cal) Cool Spell, A couple days of cool in a rather warm May Options

[Beck]

EDIT: Title update 05/23/12.






Light Offshore Flow will be present in the Southland through Wednesday this week, and High Pressure will keep things warmer than normal for this time of year through at least the end of the week. The heat will peak Tuesday and Wednesday with highs near 90F inland, and highs much cooler near the coast (around 70F). There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms (primarily dry lightning) over the mountains Tuesday afternoon, as mid-level moisture passes through the area.

With both highs and lows staying fairly above normal over the next week here, and no rain in sight - this May looks to be very different from the last two chilly Mays in Southern California.

This post has been edited by Beck: May 22 2012, 11:43 PM

[Jet Developer]

Today so far is a relatively cool day, only in the upper 60s low 70s, but at least the sun is shining. Marine layer is still at 2500 ft from the FEW025 at San Diego. We'll see how warm the immediate coastal areas can get.

[Jet Developer]

Strangely I can see the marine layer clouds looming behind the coastal foothills, but the visible satellite shows nothing.

[Beck]

Wind data from my weather station is finally available as of this afternoon.


Weather Station 05/06/12 by Reginald1992, on Flickr

[Jet Developer]

I find it surprising how cool it is today given the amount of sunshine. When the breeze blows it actually feels cold and places more than 5 miles from the beach are struggling to reach 70 F.

[vb3347]

In a sudden twist of events, the wall-to-wall sunshine of the past 2 weeks has been interrupted by monsoon-like dark cumulus clouds within the past hour. I can even smell rain in the air, this is very strange for early May!

[Jet Developer]

In a sudden twist of events, the wall-to-wall sunshine of the past 2 weeks has been interrupted by monsoon-like dark cumulus clouds within the past hour. I can even smell rain in the air, this is very strange for early May!

I could see the clouds from here and they did look like the monsoonal clouds.

[Jet Developer]

Light Offshore Flow will be present in the Southland through Wednesday this week, and High Pressure will keep things warmer than normal for this time of year through at least the end of the week. The heat will peak Tuesday and Wednesday with highs near 90F inland, and highs much cooler near the coast (around 70F). There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms (primarily dry lightning) over the mountains Tuesday afternoon, as mid-level moisture passes through the area.

With both highs and lows staying fairly above normal over the next week here, and no rain in sight - this May looks to be very different from the last two chilly Mays in Southern California.

That outlook is for May 12-16, not the next five days.

[alxz310]

Reached about 76F today away from the coast in inland Malibu (Circle X Ranch - great hike). As soon as we got back down to the coast though, the marine layer took over and it was in the low 60s

[Jet Developer]

No marine layer clouds here yet, but the temperature has cooled down the same as if there were an early pre-sunset intrustion.

This post has been edited by Jet Developer: May 6 2012, 09:55 PM

[Beck]

A small brushfire broke out in a field in Perris earlier this afternoon. It didn't get any larger than 10 acres, and no injuries or property damage were reported.

[Jet Developer]

That troublesome eddy is spinning out there again which probably means we won't see much warming at all here despite the forecast.

[Beck]

Lows around 60F, which are very warm for this time of year, are in the forecast for 3 nights later this week. It's not often that we see nights that warm in May.

[Jet Developer]

Lows around 60F, which are very warm for this time of year, are in the forecast for 3 nights later this week. It's not often that we see nights that warm in May.

Felt very cold and damp this morning but looks like the sun will come out pretty soon. Los Angeles is actually showing some reverse clearing if you look at the latest satellite image. With the eddy around and time of year, I'm guessing the marine layer will be surging inland again before sunset tonight, but developing offshore flow could make for an interesting battle.

[Beck]

Felt very cold and damp this morning but looks like the sun will come out pretty soon. Los Angeles is actually showing some reverse clearing if you look at the latest satellite image. With the eddy around and time of year, I'm guessing the marine layer will be surging inland again before sunset tonight, but developing offshore flow could make for an interesting battle.

True. That eddy will only further warm those SST's offshore as well.

We'll also see how that mid-level moisture holds up the next couple afternoons.

[Beck]

Yet another brushfire burned this morning near Menifee (near Leon Road and Domenigoni Parkway), only about 8 miles north of my house. It was contained at six acres.

It has been quite warm today, and forecast to be much warmer tomorrow.

[Beck]

Marine Layer is sweeping back inland tonight, but will be much warmer than last night.

[Jet Developer]

Marine Layer is sweeping back inland tonight, but will be much warmer than last night.

I've never seen a warm marine layer before, except for July 2006. Marine layer may be slower to come inland but it will still be the usual 58-62 degrees under it.

[Beck]

I've never seen a warm marine layer before, except for July 2006. Marine layer may be slower to come inland but it will still be the usual 58-62 degrees under it.

Last night most inland areas recorded lows around 50F or in the upper 40s, despite the marine layer. What I mean is we won't be seeing those cool temps tonight. They should generally be in the mid-50s here instead.

By the way, we also saw a warm marine layer event in October 2010, after the sizzling late-September heat wave that year. We were posting about it at that time. We tend to get those warm marine layers after a very major heat wave. That also happened at the beginning of September 2007. Last year, however, featured no major heat waves - which puts 2011 up there with 2001 and 2004 for years with very wimpy heat waves.

And according to the NWS and long-term forecasts, the heat will extend into next weak and becomes rather hot again (90s).

This post has been edited by Beck: May 7 2012, 10:20 PM

[idecline]

Santa Cruz was 82F yesterday (Monday) with an expected high of 75F today....We have been surprisingly free of fog so far this year which is a big change from last Spring. As the inland areas build up heat though, I am sure we will be seeing a denser, more prevalent marine layer by late in the week.

The warming SST's in the tropical Eastern Pacific are going to be a big player this Summer and especially this Fall. A 'warm' event is on the way regardless of whether it reaches 'El Nino' parameters, a warm surge of water is now coming over from the Eastern Pacific basin. Yes, one group of the 'forecasts' predicts near neutral ENSO conditions, but the group based on the more dynamic predictions is leaning towards an extended 'warm' event that may turn into actual 'El Nino' parameters by Fall. Remember the definition of 'El Nino' or 'La Nina' actually only occurs after the fact of warmer(or cooler) SST's for an extended time period above the parameters of the scientists liking. Meanwhile warm(or cool) water is building up in these events long before those parameters are reached.
The definition of something is not the actual event, only a 'name' for it.....

I'll have more opinions in the Personal Weather discussions about the upcoming 'warm' event very soon...Idee