Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

5 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Dec. 30-Jan. 1 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Possibility:Medium Range(4-7Days Out) Forecasts
Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Dec 26 2017, 05:17 PM
Post #1







Guests








So this thread is for the potential late weekend storm that only the GFS shows right now.

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Dec 26 2017, 05:21 PM
Post #2




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 12,590
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





When you have those heights in the NE, you can kiss any cutter/app runner goodbye unless some more digging occurs/wave slows down. Curious about the 0z runs since the Euro/CMC offers a different solution.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 26 2017, 05:34 PM
Post #3




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 25,798
Joined: 17-February 08
Member No.: 13,767





The UK and ECM have this, but it doesnt dig like the GFS, thus gets sheared out

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Dec 26 2017, 05:34 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Dec 26 2017, 05:58 PM
Post #4




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 11,819
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 26 2017, 04:17 PM) *
So this thread is for the potential late weekend storm that only the GFS shows right now.



Um....JMA & FIM....and many EPS ensembles.

JMA




FIM



Several 12z EPS solutions with some variation of this:
MSLP....



Precip




BSR hints at some type of diving SLP to the SE coast...give or take on dates:




And SOID big drop indicates a larger system more than not...give or take with exact date:



So...while I'm not hugging the models that are holding onto something of greater significance than a clipper, I do believe there will be a larger diving system, that eventually moves up coast & GFS is not all that would support that.

Very important that we don't latch on to what we want & be objective, patient as models work through a smorgasbord of details, take in ALL the data & wait for better agreement between OP's & the Ensemble suits.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Dec 26 2017, 06:41 PM
Post #5




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 11,819
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





OV would be very pleased with some of these 18z GEFS Ensembles:)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Dec 26 2017, 07:50 PM
Post #6




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 11,819
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE
Us and the pros are in the same boat. From MRX this afternoon.

Model solutions greatly diverge past Saturday and uncertainty is
very high late this weekend into early next week. The GFS continues
to dry and develop an area of low pressure along the Gulf Coast with
moisture over our region Sunday and Sunday night which is also
supported by GEFS members. The ECMWF and CMC continue to be dry with
the Gulf low suppressed far to the south with slight differences
with respect to timing. Therefore, went no higher than chance PoPs
for Sunday through Monday because of the very high uncertainty.
Exactly how the Sunday through Monday forecast plays out will depend
on a small, relatively weak shortwave and how it evolves from a
closed low over the eastern Pacific. Models routinely have a
difficult time with this type of setup and this seems to be no
exception.
Regardless, we`ll have to continue to watch for at least
the potential for winter weather Sunday through Monday.


This post has been edited by grace: Dec 26 2017, 07:50 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ohiobuckeye45
post Dec 26 2017, 08:08 PM
Post #7




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 25,798
Joined: 17-February 08
Member No.: 13,767





GFS, this is members of both solutions, in that some have 1 storm some have 2
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image

 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Snow____
post Dec 26 2017, 08:11 PM
Post #8




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 8,415
Joined: 16-November 08
From: Cincinnati, OH
Member No.: 16,172





I’ll take the mean please lol.


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Dec 26 2017, 08:14 PM
Post #9







Guests








QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 26 2017, 09:08 PM) *
GFS, this is members of both solutions, in that some have 1 storm some have 2

I'll take the small box in the top middle and call it a day. biggrin.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 26 2017, 08:14 PM
Post #10




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 22,676
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





What’s Euro showing, and is GFS being consistent with the timing? We’re supposed to fly back to Ohio on the 31st, worries we might have to live in the airport for a bit. Thanks in advance.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Dec 26 2017, 08:17 PM
Post #11







Guests








QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 26 2017, 09:14 PM) *
What’s Euro showing, and is GFS being consistent with the timing? We’re supposed to fly back to Ohio on the 31st, worries we might have to live in the airport for a bit. Thanks in advance.

Euro and GGEM do not show the bigger storm the GFS does. That could change because it's a mess with many energies to be sorted out.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 26 2017, 08:23 PM
Post #12




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 22,676
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 26 2017, 09:17 PM) *
Euro and GGEM do not show the bigger storm the GFS does. That could change because it's a mess with many energies to be sorted out.

Good to hear. The storm can hurry up or slow down, I don’t care. Just let me get home mad.gif the images in the original post is the worst case scenario for me


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
UTWeather
post Dec 26 2017, 08:23 PM
Post #13




EF-3 (Very Frequent Poster)
***

Group: Member
Posts: 821
Joined: 19-January 10
From: SW PA
Member No.: 21,000





QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 26 2017, 08:08 PM) *
GFS, this is members of both solutions, in that some have 1 storm some have 2


Most members seem more northerly, no?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Snow____
post Dec 26 2017, 08:26 PM
Post #14




EF-4 (Extreme Poster)
****

Group: Member
Posts: 8,415
Joined: 16-November 08
From: Cincinnati, OH
Member No.: 16,172





QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Dec 26 2017, 09:14 PM) *
I'll take the small box in the top middle and call it a day. biggrin.gif

That will satisfy almost everyone.


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ahoff
post Dec 26 2017, 09:28 PM
Post #15




EF-2 (Frequent Poster)
**

Group: Member
Posts: 334
Joined: 28-January 17
From: Pittsburgh
Member No.: 31,393





QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 26 2017, 08:08 PM) *
GFS, this is members of both solutions, in that some have 1 storm some have 2


These actually all look good for Pittsburgh, so hopefully something comes out of it.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Dec 26 2017, 09:46 PM
Post #16







Guests








0z NAM looking like GFS. Basically makes not much of the 29-30 wave and looks like its setting up a bigger storm here.
Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Dec 26 2017, 09:51 PM
Post #17







Guests








500mb looks very similar too.

0z NAM @84
Attached Image


12z GFS @96
Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Dec 26 2017, 10:59 PM
Post #18







Guests








0z GFS is a little slower so far but coming together.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Dec 26 2017, 10:59 PM
Post #19




EF-5 (Mega Poster)
*****

Group: Member
Posts: 12,590
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Early differences suggests the GFS trended towards the Euro.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Dec 26 2017, 11:00 PM
Post #20







Guests








Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

5 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 12th November 2018 - 09:38 PM