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> June 19-24th Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Slight Risk - Forecasts & OBS
SEMIweather
post Jun 22 2011, 04:08 PM
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The tornado warned storm west of Port Huron is looking real interesting now.


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Torontoweather
post Jun 22 2011, 06:09 PM
Post #642




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QUOTE(Chicago Storm @ Jun 22 2011, 03:32 PM) *
Monday's chase out in Nebraska went quite well...

Ended up with 3 tornadoes around the york area...

The first was a nice funnel, which eventually touched down as a very fine/needle/pencil tornado.

The second was partially rain wrapped from our position.

The third was the longer track of the three. This tornado was also multi-vortex for a time. Along the way we came across tree damage, snapped power poles, and an irrigation system that was twisted and flipped.

Pics...

[attachment=135849:neb1.jpg]

[attachment=135850:neb2.jpg]

[attachment=135851:neb3.jpg]

[attachment=135852:neb6.jpg]

[attachment=135853:neb7.jpg]

[attachment=135854:neb4.jpg]


Great pictures man! Thanks for posting them.


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SADBadger
post Jun 22 2011, 07:30 PM
Post #643




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QUOTE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
721 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

WIZ017-029-032>034-230200-
TAYLOR-CLARK-BUFFALO-TREMPEALEAU-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MEDFORD...NEILLSVILLE...
BLACK RIVER FALLS
721 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2011

...COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUDS REPORTED OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...

COLD AIR FUNNEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST CLARK COUNTY. THESE TYPE OF FUNNEL CLOUDS
NORMALLY DO NOT TOUCH THE GROUND. AS A RESULT...THEY RARELY DO ANY
DAMAGE AND LAST ONLY A FEW MINUTES.

HOWEVER...IF YOU LIVE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...REMAIN ALERT AND BE
PREPARED TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF A FUNNEL SHOULD APPROACH
THE GROUND.

THIS PHENOMENA IS CAUSED BY UNUSUALLY COLD AIR IN THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR TORNADIC
STORMS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF COLD
AIR FUNNEL CLOUDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS THOUGH.


--------------------
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SADBadger
post Jun 22 2011, 07:33 PM
Post #644




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Weather Channel is reporting damage to barns at Churchill Downs. Don't know how accurate that is though.

QUOTE
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
813 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

KYC111-230030-
/O.CON.KLMK.TO.W.0097.000000T0000Z-110623T0030Z/
JEFFERSON KY-
813 PM EDT WED JUN 22 2011

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT FOR CENTRAL
JEFFERSON COUNTY...

AT 812 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CONFIRMED TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR THE UNIVERSITY OF
LOUISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.


DEBRIS WAS REPORTED IN THE CHURCHILL DOWNS AREA.

* THE TORNADO WILL ALSO IMPACT...
ST. MATTHEWS...
LOUISVILLE BOWMAN FIELD...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO
THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING
DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN LOUISVILLE.


--------------------
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Hertz
post Jun 22 2011, 07:49 PM
Post #645




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There is a confirmed (probably weak) tornado near Louisville. SDF airport reported funnel cloud at 8PM.

Currently it's the only tornado-waned storm (as far as I know) on the broken line, and most of the storms are strong not severe, but do you think tornado probs anywhere in Ohio will need to be bumped past their current 2%?

They decided not to go with a severe weather watch at this point but that doesn't mean they won't keep a slight risk. I currently think they should leave a low-end one in - drop the 30% wind to 15% but no other changes.

I hope there's NOT any strong LLJ to keep things intense overnight (esp. sustain any tornadic potential), or that they pass me before midnight.

This post has been edited by Hertz: Jun 22 2011, 07:52 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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jdrenken
post Jun 22 2011, 08:01 PM
Post #646




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QUOTE(Hertz @ Jun 22 2011, 07:49 PM) *
There is a confirmed (probably weak) tornado near Louisville. SDF airport reported funnel cloud at 8PM.

Currently it's the only tornado-waned storm (as far as I know) on the broken line, and most of the storms are strong not severe, but do you think tornado probs anywhere in Ohio will need to be bumped past their current 2%?

They decided not to go with a severe weather watch at this point but that doesn't mean they won't keep a slight risk. I currently think they should leave a low-end one in - drop the 30% wind to 15% but no other changes.

I hope there's NOT any strong LLJ to keep things intense overnight (esp. sustain any tornadic potential), or that they pass me before midnight.


If you have no idea about the LLJ possibilities, you have no basis on your request to bump the 2% in OH.

This will be the ONLY heads up I give you.


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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


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Southern Indiana
post Jun 22 2011, 08:24 PM
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QUOTE(SADBadger @ Jun 22 2011, 08:33 PM) *
Weather Channel is reporting damage to barns at Churchill Downs. Don't know how accurate that is though.


that is confirmed a barn collapsed and cinder blocks were removed from the building. supercells are cycling






--------------------
Clark & Floyd Counties,
Indiana 2013

Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 1
Severe Warnings: 2
Severe Watches: 1
Confirmed Tornadoes: 0
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Southern Indiana
post Jun 22 2011, 08:25 PM
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QUOTE(Southern Indiana @ Jun 22 2011, 09:24 PM) *
that is confirmed a barn collapsed and cinder blocks were removed from the building. supercells are cycling


3 possible tornadoes in a row for louisville.... at least indicative of wind scope.


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Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 1
Severe Warnings: 2
Severe Watches: 1
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Southern Indiana
post Jun 22 2011, 08:26 PM
Post #649




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QUOTE(Southern Indiana @ Jun 22 2011, 09:25 PM) *
3 possible tornadoes in a row for louisville.... at least indicative of wind scope.



they all appear to be following the same track... its crazy like a tornado train.


--------------------
Clark & Floyd Counties,
Indiana 2013

Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 1
Severe Warnings: 2
Severe Watches: 1
Confirmed Tornadoes: 0
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Chicago Storm
post Jun 22 2011, 08:25 PM
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QUOTE(Hertz @ Jun 22 2011, 07:49 PM) *
There is a confirmed (probably weak) tornado near Louisville. SDF airport reported funnel cloud at 8PM.

Currently it's the only tornado-waned storm (as far as I know) on the broken line, and most of the storms are strong not severe, but do you think tornado probs anywhere in Ohio will need to be bumped past their current 2%?

They decided not to go with a severe weather watch at this point but that doesn't mean they won't keep a slight risk. I currently think they should leave a low-end one in - drop the 30% wind to 15% but no other changes.

I hope there's NOT any strong LLJ to keep things intense overnight (esp. sustain any tornadic potential), or that they pass me before midnight.

Given this post and one of your last ones in the SPC topic...

If you know nothing about other indicies other than following CAPE and surface maps, you should not be questioning what the SPC is doing, nor should you be entitled to your own opinion.
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Hertz
post Jun 22 2011, 09:13 PM
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Actually with twisterdata.com I can find bulk shear and helicity from the RUC now. However shear is only available in sfc-some mb (and I don't know what mb is equivalent to 3km, what's equivalent to 6km, etc.) and there doesn't appear to be a map showing the SRH or LLJ related data. So my data's still limited.


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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snowlover2
post Jun 22 2011, 09:17 PM
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LOT has confirmed 2 EF1 tornadoes from yesterday. Source


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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jdrenken
post Jun 22 2011, 09:23 PM
Post #653




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QUOTE(Hertz @ Jun 22 2011, 09:13 PM) *
Actually with twisterdata.com I can find bulk shear and helicity from the RUC now. However shear is only available in sfc-some mb (and I don't know what mb is equivalent to 3km, what's equivalent to 6km, etc.) and there doesn't appear to be a map showing the SRH or LLJ related data. So my data's still limited.


The LLJ is on the models. Just a suggestion, spend more time reading Habyhints before questioning the SPC.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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Southern Indiana
post Jun 22 2011, 10:23 PM
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based on prelim reports there was 2 touchdowns out of 4 supercells with tornado signatures on the radar, first one did damage to churchill downs (you can see it on WHAS or WAVE websites), second cell nothing confirmed touchdown, but a funnel was spotted by a WAVE Meteo chasing the storms.. 3rd cell did damage on east side of Louisville... the 4th one a reported funnel was in meade county but nothing confirmed to touchdown.

Hertz this may give you some piece of mind (maybe not), but the meteo's in the area believe the reason these storms produced tornadoes was due to a spike in the dew point in louisville that gave these cells fuel to fire. I am going to assume its part of a classic heat island effect. Humidity in ohio valley is classically higher than other parts of the country.

Actually whats kind of scary is I was out on a lake fishing 15 miles away from this event and nothing looked severe, just rain... It wasnt till i got home and saw the first tornado warning had been on in louisville for like half an hour....

This post has been edited by Southern Indiana: Jun 22 2011, 10:27 PM


--------------------
Clark & Floyd Counties,
Indiana 2013

Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 1
Severe Warnings: 2
Severe Watches: 1
Confirmed Tornadoes: 0
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jdrenken
post Jun 23 2011, 05:49 AM
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QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2011

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN STATES INTO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF OK...SRN
KS...SWRN MO AND NRN AR...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY...WHILE UPSTREAM LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN
ROCKIES AREA. ERN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY OCCLUDED
SURFACE LOW WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY OVER OK. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH SRN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH
THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES AREA.

...NERN STATES...OH AND TN VALLEYS...

DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO
THE NERN STATES. GENERALLY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
MLCAPE TO AOB 1500 J/KG...EXCEPT POSSIBLY TOWARD WRN TN VALLEY AREA
WHERE STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY ADVECT EWD. SCATTERED STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES. SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION FOR 30-40 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.


..DIAL/LEITMAN.. 06/23/2011


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QUOTE
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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


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Organicforecasting Blog


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snowlover2
post Jun 23 2011, 11:00 AM
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NWS Louisville confirmed 2 tornadoes so far one of which was EF2 that hit Churchill Downs area.

Source


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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Southern Indiana
post Jun 23 2011, 11:08 AM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 23 2011, 12:00 PM) *
NWS Louisville confirmed 2 tornadoes so far one of which was EF2 that hit Churchill Downs area.

Source


I thought this would be the case, that was one of the crazier things I have ever seen. Once the storm would hit a certain area, it would begin rotating and drop tornadoes... It couldve been worse. Those funnels were in downtown and passed over major sections of highway (64/71 Corridor, 65, Spaghetti Junction).

This post has been edited by Southern Indiana: Jun 23 2011, 11:09 AM


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Severe Warnings: 2
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jdrenken
post Jun 23 2011, 05:39 PM
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We have people not paying attention to the sirens and now we have towns not sounding their sirens because the local spotters couldn't see a funnel at NIGHT.

Downers Grove


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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snowlover2
post Jun 23 2011, 07:35 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 23 2011, 12:00 PM) *
NWS Louisville confirmed 2 tornadoes so far one of which was EF2 that hit Churchill Downs area.

Source


Looks like they found 5 different tornadoes all together. Same source.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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