Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com
We have updated our Privacy Policy and our Cookie Policy effective May 25, 2018. Please review them.
X

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

2 Pages V   1 2 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> June 14-? Plains/MW/GL Severe Weather
joseph507123
post Jun 12 2018, 04:04 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 649
Joined: 20-January 12
From: South Central Minnesota
Member No.: 26,362





Another system coming in two days across the Dakotas.
Attached Image

QUOTE
Northern Plains...
Broad mid-level ridging and a related subsidence inversion around
850-700mb will likely preclude thunderstorm development through much
of the day Thursday. However, gradually falling heights and
associated cooling/moistening aloft over western/central North
Dakota should sufficiently weaken the inversion for severe
thunderstorm development during the evening and early overnight
hours. Most of these storms are expected to develop along/ahead of a
surface front/trough pushing east through the overnight.

Ahead of the surface boundary, a plume of upper 60s/lower 70s dew
points will spread northward through the day, beneath very steep
700-500mb lapse rates across much of the region. Resultant buoyancy
should be strong, and favorable effective shear will organize
updrafts sufficiently for a threat of very large hail and damaging
winds with initial supercellular development. The magnitude of the
tornado threat remains more uncertain. Although low-level shear will
strengthen with time and eastward extent, strong downdraft momentum
and initially modest boundary-layer flow may favor quick upscale
growth during the evening hours. Therefore, convective mode
evolution could limit tornadic potential late Thursday. Still, a
damaging wind threat would likely be maintained, especially if a
larger convective system organizes and accelerates eastward from
North Dakota into northwest Minnesota during the overnight.


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 8

Highest Heat Index: 104F

Heat advisories: 3
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 12 2018, 11:06 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,556
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Some insanity on the models. GFS showing 7000 CAPE... blink.gif



NAM



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 5 (Last: 6/16/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Jun 14 2018, 11:43 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,555
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Moderate risk area just added for extreme northern ND.
Attached Image

QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FAR NORTHERN
ND...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected during the late
afternoon and evening across parts of the Dakotas into northwest
Minnesota. A couple tornadic storms, very large hail, and intense
wind gusts are possible.

...Dakotas to MN/WI...
A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will eject northeast
into the southern Prairie Provinces through early Friday. A surface
cyclone over southeast MT should develop into separate lows with one
tracking northeast into southwest Manitoba by evening and a
thermal-induced circulation near the Black Hills, along a cold front
that progresses east across the Dakotas tonight. Rich boundary-layer
moisture sampled by the 12Z OAX sounding and characterized by mid
60s to low 70s surface dew points will spread north from the Mid-MO
Valley beneath a stout elevated mixed layer as sampled by the 12Z
UNR sounding. With robust surface heating underway, this setup will
result in a plume of strong to extreme buoyancy across the Dakotas
by early evening with MLCAPE commonly reaching 2500-5000 J/kg.

Ongoing elevated storms across far northeast MT into northwest ND
may continue to produce isolated severe hail over the next few
hours. In the wake of this activity, two corridors of surface-based
storm development are anticipated during the late afternoon. One is
expected to be over far northwest ND into southeast Saskatchewan and
southwest Manitoba, in the zone of stronger large-scale forcing for
ascent along the northwest edge of the warm sector. These storms
will be supercells, a couple of which may be long-tracked. These
will be capable of producing very large hail and tornadoes given the
steep mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy and sufficient low-level
moisture with strong low-level shear/hodograph curvature. The areal
extent of this risk in northern ND should be rather confined as the
cap will probably inhibit storm development to its immediate south.
The second corridor of storm development is anticipated across
western SD in the zone of strongest surface heating and deep mixing.
Here, surface temperatures around 100 should weaken the cap
sufficiently for high-based storm development near the lee
trough/cyclone in vicinity of the Black Hills. Outflow generated by
this convection could help it persist as an MCS spreading northeast
through the evening. The very large MLCAPE plume and steep
low/mid-level lapse rates should result in severe wind being the
primary hazard, with isolated significant severe gusts possible.
Morning guidance does suggest that in spite of a strengthening
southwesterly low-level jet tonight, negative theta-e advection will
become increasingly common across the eastern Dakotas into
central/southern MN. This indicates a stout capping inversion will
overspread this region and likely result in weakening intensity of
this MCS overnight. However, a separate MCS should form as elevated
storms become widespread from northern MN southeast into WI in
association with strengthening low-level warm advection, on the
northeast edge of the elevated mixed-layer. While heavy rain should
be a comparatively greater hazard, the strongest cores could produce
isolated severe hail overnight.

..Grams/Nauslar.. 06/14/2018


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
joseph507123
post Jun 14 2018, 03:05 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 649
Joined: 20-January 12
From: South Central Minnesota
Member No.: 26,362





Now Slight Risks for Friday and Saturday.
Attached Image

Attached Image


Models have day 3 as the worst. Supercell chances




--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 8

Highest Heat Index: 104F

Heat advisories: 3
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ColoradoChinook
post Jun 14 2018, 04:58 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 597
Joined: 16-December 14
Member No.: 30,118





a storm near Cando, North Dakota has had up to 77.5 dBz on composite reflectivity and may be producing 2-3" hail.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ColoradoChinook
post Jun 14 2018, 05:45 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 597
Joined: 16-December 14
Member No.: 30,118





There was a base reflectivity of 79.5 dBz on Minot's radar, at a location near Estevan, Saskatchewan. That's about the highest you can get on NWS radars -- and it's in Canada!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
FireworkWX03
post Jun 15 2018, 12:21 PM
Post #7




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 47
Joined: 1-April 18
From: KCAK
Member No.: 32,065





Outside of a shot for something marginal Mon/Tue, it looks pretty quiet in Ohio for the next 7-10 days. GFS fantasy land likes to bring back SVR wx ingredients towards the end of its run, but who knows.

We have about what, a 2 month window for the primary severe weather season remaining on average? It seems to shut off mid-late August but this can be variable. I've seen it die out at the end of July or go until mid-September.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 15 2018, 09:15 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,556
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Jun 15 2018, 01:21 PM) *
Outside of a shot for something marginal Mon/Tue, it looks pretty quiet in Ohio for the next 7-10 days. GFS fantasy land likes to bring back SVR wx ingredients towards the end of its run, but who knows.

We have about what, a 2 month window for the primary severe weather season remaining on average? It seems to shut off mid-late August but this can be variable. I've seen it die out at the end of July or go until mid-September.

Per SPC's severe weather climatology, our severe weather season goes from March 31-August 30... but I'd say March is more active than August because it is kinda boring.

But the peak of our season does last for 2 or 3 months. I'd say mid-April through late July, with the first half being more tornadic and the second half having more MCSs


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 5 (Last: 6/16/18)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 14 (Last: 6/12/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
FireworkWX03
post Yesterday, 10:31 AM
Post #9




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 47
Joined: 1-April 18
From: KCAK
Member No.: 32,065





CLE wrote War and Peace for the Marginal risk today. laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

QUOTE
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not many changes to the forecast with the early morning update.
A cluster of storms is currently working into the Toledo area,
but should start to weaken/disorganize heading into the morning
as the low level jet weakens a bit and the convection heads into
a more stable environment. Latest HRRR runs have been backing
off on the instability this afternoon, pinching off the corridor
of CAPE and better moisture just south and west of the area
through this afternoon as more convection over lower Michigan
reinforces a stable bubble southward into northern Indiana, the
immediate upstream instability source that the models were
previously hinting at. Nevertheless, have held with the slight
chance pops this afternoon, and made little/no changes to temps.

Original discussion...
Very low confidence forecast for today, contingent on the evolution
of ongoing convection across lower Michigan. The entire gamut of 00Z
hi-res guidance (ARW/NMM/Nam4km) has a very poor handling of the MCS
diving south across Lake Michigan at the moment, lagging several
hours behind the actual evolution. The latest runs of the HRRR are
trying to catch up with the current evolution of the convection, but
are still missing the mark. So the forecast over the next 12-18
hours is pretty much flying blind from guidance and heavily weighed
towards observational data, mesoanalysis and pattern recognition.

There are a few main forecast challenges over the next 24 hours.
First, will the eastern periphery of the MCS edge into the northwest
part of the forecast area early this morning, and if so, what will
be the coverage of showers and storms? No instability is present
over northwest Ohio at the moment, however broad southwest flow will
help advect a moist, unstable airmass toward northwest Ohio this
morning. Once the outflow from the convection pushes southeast into
the area, conditions will become stable again behind the boundary.
Have kept pops in the slight chance range this morning, but
generally expect convective coverage to struggle through the morning
hours given the expected timing of the outflow.

The second forecast challenge is how the outflow/convective debris
will limit/curtail a typical diurnal temperature rise this morning.
This may have an overall impact on high temperatures, especially if
cloud cover lingers through the morning. For now, have kept
temperatures similar to previous forecast, which is close to a
consensus MOS/raw guidance blend, ranging from the low 80s east to
around 90 west.

The third forecast challenge, and perhaps the biggest challenge, is
potential for convective redevelopment this afternoon. Will there be
enough forcing with the remnant outflow boundary and MCV tracking
from northern lower Michigan towards Lake Erie through the day, and
will the atmosphere be able to destabilize enough this afternoon?
It`s hard to trust the latest hi-res guidance runs given the
handling of the current convection, however each run of the HRRR
continues to rapidly destabilize the atmosphere across northern Ohio
through the afternoon, on the order of 2500-3500 j/kg MUCAPE. The
last few runs of the HRRR coincidentally have been very aggressive
with convective redevelopment across northern Ohio around 21Z. Given
the uncertainty of the model depiction of destabilization, the
uncertainty with the location of the remnant outflow and the timing
of the MCV influence across the area, have opted for just slight
chance pops across most of the area late this afternoon into this
evening. Confidence is too low for chance pops at this point, and
would like to see 12Z guidance and subsequent HRRR runs have a
better handle on the current situation and eventual placement of the
outflow before ramping up pops.

Given the conditionality of the convection itself, even more
uncertainty exists with severe weather potential if storms end up
developing. Broad deep layer shear is minimal with the upper ridge
building into the area, however localized deep layer shear in the
vicinity of the MCV may help organize any convection that develops.
With around 3000 j/kg SBCAPE, steep low level lapse rates, some
strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out if this pan out for
storms to develop. However, mid level lapse rates are fairly poor
given the warm temperatures aloft with the ridging, so without more
robust deep layer shear, it may be difficult for any storms to
organize for any lengthier period of time. But again, this is all
highly conditional on the evolution of the atmosphere this afternoon.

As far as the rest of the forecast period, have ramped pops down
after 03Z across the area, although the MCV may still be in the
vicinity of northwest PA and could linger some convection into the
overnight. Have opted for a dry forecast for Sunday with the ridge
axis building towards the region. No major changes to temperatures
from previous forecast with low to mid 90s across the area. It`s
still looking like the western half of the forecast area will have
heat indices approaching 100, with the possibility of a heat
advisory becoming more likely. For now, will continue to highlight
in the HWO and let the day shift look at some more data for a
potential headline.

&&


This Greenawalt guy is good, he should write he every day.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Yesterday, 10:49 AM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,555
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





ILN also has a very good write up in the AFD concerning today's big flip from dry to now having storms.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
943 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
My how things have changed.....

A lot to digest early this morning both observationally and
through NWP when diagnosing the potential for convection this
afternoon and evening. GOES 16 channels showing rapidly
weakening MCS across MI this morning but a very apparent
compact MCV left behind over lower MI, churning southeast with
storms on its wrn and southeastern flank. MCS outflow has surged
south into the ILN CWA on a Richmond IN to Delaware OH line,
with accas billowing along it. Area radar VWPs do show stronger
mid level flow /30kt/ in proximity to the MCV vs further south
over southern OH. The 16.12Z KILN sounding was not unstable
/yet/ with modest mid-level lapse rates and weak flow throughout
the troposphere, however RAP soundings immediately west of here
/Indiana/ show a large pool of instability lies just upstream.

Through tonight - while highly performing global models /ECMWF/
have a dry forecast through tonight - the convective-permitting
forecast guidance is much less optimistic. There seems to be a
growing consensus of 3-4km guidance which initiates convection
this afternoon over northern/central Ohio as the wrn flank of
the MCV grazes the forecast area with stronger flow/forcing.
This will be allowed due to the orientation of the mid-level
ridge - such that as the MCV churns southeast this morning - it
will turn more decidedly SSE this afternoon in a weakness on the
backside of the ridge. Thus, given the large pool of CAPE over
Indiana poised and ready to move on weak swly low level flow -
rapid destabilization is expected through early afternoon north
of the dying outflow.

Due to weak forcing overall, hour-to-hour consistency via
HRRR/RAP and other convective permitting guidance is poor on
location/timing - but the picture is pretty clear that
convection will be in the ILN CWA this afternoon and evening -
and storm motions will be chaotic owing to a larger instability
reservoir to the west, prevailing mid level winds pushing
southeast, and outflow which will tend to be on NW-SE axis.
Expect cores to move south/southeast - but net motion of
clusters will probably /at the end of the day/ show some form of
south to southwest net propagation - and this is clearly shown
by Corfidi vector changes through the day which end up pointing
southwest by this evening.

Hazard will be almost-primarily limited to isolated/scattered damaging
wind gusts with consolidating cores/outflow. This will be most
prevalent along/west of I-71 where numerous downdraft parameters
are aligned to showing greater threat. Deep layer flow is
generally weak, with some modest enhancement due to the MCV in
the 3-4km layer which may help add a bit of organization. But
with very weak low level flow, outflows will be quick to race
out ahead of convection. Increased rain chances most locations,
with minimums in the Scioto Valley and northern Kentucky, and
highest in central/west-central Ohio into southeast Indiana.

This activity should very rapidly weaken past 7 PM or so with
the onset of nocturnal cooling and a decoupling boundary layer
and very little feed of theta-e above the inversion. Knocked a
few degrees off the highs esp north of I-70 this afternoon.

Quiet conditions are expected tonight, though it will be a very
warm night, with temps near 70 and dewpoints in the mid 60s.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Yesterday, 02:31 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,555
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Cell popped up WNW of Dayton and just went severe. Barely moving too.

QUOTE
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
328 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
East central Preble County in west central Ohio...
Northwestern Montgomery County in west central Ohio...

* Until 345 PM EDT.

* At 327 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lewisburg,
moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Spotter reported half dollar size hail.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Trotwood, Englewood, Clayton, Union, Brookville, New Lebanon,
Phillipsburg, Pyrmont and Northview.

This includes I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 16 and 30.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
btbucks
post Yesterday, 02:34 PM
Post #12




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 151
Joined: 15-January 12
From: columbus, oh
Member No.: 26,344





Big pop up storm NE of Columbus too.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Yesterday, 02:35 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,555
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Already got a report of 1.25" hail in Brookville.

QUOTE
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
331 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0325 PM HAIL BROOKVILLE 39.84N 84.42W
06/16/2018 E1.25 INCH MONTGOMERY OH TRAINED SPOTTER


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Yesterday, 02:40 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,555
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





Looks like other cells are popping up on either side of the severe cell.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
joseph507123
post Yesterday, 02:46 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 649
Joined: 20-January 12
From: South Central Minnesota
Member No.: 26,362





Several tornadoes, possible a strong one possible accross SD or MN.

QUOTE
Subsidence in the wake of the northern MCV should preclude
surface-based storm development through much of the afternoon.
However, convergence along the front/residual outflow intersection
near the northeast SD/west-central MN border may be sufficient to
yield storm development after 22Z, as simulated by ARW-core CAMs.
While mid-level winds will be modest, deep-layer shear will be
sufficient for hp supercells given the large buoyancy. Enlarged
low-level hodographs will support the potential for a couple
tornadic storms (possibly strong) with very large hail. This
activity may evolve into a small cluster given the weakness in
mid-level winds with a risk for all hazards continuing east towards
northwest WI. Should confidence become higher in this scenario
potentially occurring, tornado probabilities may be increased in the
20Z outlook.


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 8

Highest Heat Index: 104F

Heat advisories: 3
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Yesterday, 02:47 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,555
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





New warning issued including Dayton and my area.

QUOTE
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
345 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northwestern Greene County in west central Ohio...
Montgomery County in west central Ohio...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 344 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Trotwood,
moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotter reported half dollar size hail.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind
damage to trees and power lines.

* Locations impacted include...
Dayton, Kettering, Beavercreek, Huber Heights, Fairborn, Trotwood,
Miamisburg, Vandalia, Englewood, Moraine, Oakwood, Wright-Patterson
Afb, West Carrollton, Riverside, Clayton, Union, Brookville, New
Lebanon, Farmersville and Shiloh.

This includes the following Interstates...
I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 18 and 37.
I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 45 and 62.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Yesterday, 03:01 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,558
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Lots of lightning with the middle and eastern most cell... very slow movers, anvil overhead atm.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Yesterday, 03:01 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
joseph507123
post Yesterday, 03:11 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 649
Joined: 20-January 12
From: South Central Minnesota
Member No.: 26,362





Mesoscale Discussion 752

QUOTE
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
area around 5-7pm CDT. A few of these storms will be severe, with an
attendant threat of a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.
A tornado watch will likely be issued by 4pm CDT.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a cumulus field
expanding/spreading north across the region this afternoon, as the
boundary layer continues to warm/moisten behind earlier convection.
As weak mid-level ascent overspreads the eastern Dakotas from the
west and a low-level jet strengthens into early evening, scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop along a front stretching from
northeast South Dakota east/northeast into central Minnesota.

South of this front, very rich moisture and temps in the 80s are
combining with steep lapse rates aloft to yield around 2000-3000
J/kg of MLCAPE currently. Considerable veering of winds with height
will be favorable for supercells, capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and a few tornadoes. A strong tornado or two may be possible,
owing to ample storm-relative helicity accompanying the
strengthening low-level jet. This particular threat may be highly
regulated by RFD evolutions that are characteristic of HP
structures, owing to some weakness in mid-level storm-relative flow.
Regardless, a tornado watch will likely be issued by 4pm CDT.


Could be a big day


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 1

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 8

Highest Heat Index: 104F

Heat advisories: 3
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Yesterday, 03:11 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,555
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jun 16 2018, 04:01 PM) *
Lots of lightning with the middle and eastern most cell... very slow movers, anvil overhead atm.

Been getting some really loud thunder here. The east most cell is literally just NW of me but hardly moving.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
btbucks
post Yesterday, 03:16 PM
Post #20




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 151
Joined: 15-January 12
From: columbus, oh
Member No.: 26,344





I don't recall these storms being in the forecast but maybe we are in that part of the summer that T-storms are always possible. Nearest cell is about 10 miles east of me but its gotten noticeable cooler here.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

2 Pages V   1 2 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 17th June 2018 - 08:48 PM