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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
PoconoSnow
post Oct 14 2017, 10:05 AM
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ph34r.gif


--------------------
“If you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
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gulfofslides
post Oct 14 2017, 10:08 AM
Post #482




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QUOTE(Boomer @ Oct 14 2017, 10:31 AM) *
Trying to gauge the interest, or lack thereof, in this thread based on how many pages past years had for the long range winter thread at this time. I know it will pick up in the coming weeks, but we are about ten pages shorter than this time last year. Wonder if the past two winters have people a little more disinterested than usual, or people just being shy before winter. smile.gif

Everybody is waiting for the first flakes to fall which will be soon
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Undertakerson
post Oct 14 2017, 12:46 PM
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QUOTE(Boomer @ Oct 14 2017, 10:31 AM) *
Trying to gauge the interest, or lack thereof, in this thread based on how many pages past years had for the long range winter thread at this time. I know it will pick up in the coming weeks, but we are about ten pages shorter than this time last year. Wonder if the past two winters have people a little more disinterested than usual, or people just being shy before winter. smile.gif

By this point, last year (and previous year) I had made at least 3 long posts relative to my thoughts for the winter.

This year I am very reluctant. I'm quite undecided and on the points I'm really thinking about - no one in here would much care for the outcome.

I guess I'll just add that, as for this winter, at least in the MidAtl - I am leaning "bearish".
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Boomer
post Oct 14 2017, 01:39 PM
Post #484




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 14 2017, 11:46 AM) *
By this point, last year (and previous year) I had made at least 3 long posts relative to my thoughts for the winter.

This year I am very reluctant. I'm quite undecided and on the points I'm really thinking about - no one in here would much care for the outcome.

I guess I'll just add that, as for this winter, at least in the MidAtl - I am leaning "bearish".


Given the Nina base state, I think most would probably lean a little bearish in the MidAtl. Ridging tends to hurt those in the MidAtl of course.

This post has been edited by Boomer: Oct 14 2017, 01:39 PM
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snowyweatherman
post Oct 14 2017, 11:34 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 14 2017, 01:46 PM) *
By this point, last year (and previous year) I had made at least 3 long posts relative to my thoughts for the winter.

This year I am very reluctant. I'm quite undecided and on the points I'm really thinking about - no one in here would much care for the outcome.

I guess I'll just add that, as for this winter, at least in the MidAtl - I am leaning "bearish".


bear·ish
ˈberiSH/Submit
adjective
1.
resembling or likened to a bear, typically in being rough, surly, or clumsy.
"a bearish figure with muttonchop whiskers"


--------------------
Current Snow Depth

2016-17Snowfall = 45" spread out since Late Novemeber
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Ryan Duff
post Yesterday, 06:55 AM
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QUOTE(snowyweatherman @ Oct 15 2017, 12:34 AM) *
bear·ish
ˈberiSH/Submit
adjective
1.
resembling or likened to a bear, typically in being rough, surly, or clumsy.
"a bearish figure with muttonchop whiskers"


Not quite the definition he was going for, but knowing UTS personally, funny nevertheless. laugh.gif

On that note, I'm gonna make like a bear and hibernate.


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kpk33x
post Yesterday, 09:15 AM
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I think it is just difficult to think of winter when it is like it was yesterday...mid to upper 80s and very humid. It felt like August again.


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Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F:
...Frost:
...First sub-freezing low:
...Snow reported:

Foliage: Some color starting to show (Sept. 14)
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Boomer
post Yesterday, 09:40 AM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Oct 15 2017, 08:15 AM) *
I think it is just difficult to think of winter when it is like it was yesterday...mid to upper 80s and very humid. It felt like August again.

That's fair. It's been quite warm for about the past month, after a fairly cool summer. Once we get into November, hopefully winter will have revealed its hand. The last really cold winter I remember was 2013-2014 and we had a icy cold November, thanks to the recurving of Super Typhoon Nuri. Certainly looks like the GFS and the Euro have some possibilities of recurving typhoons in the coming weeks. Will probably wreak havoc on our models at the beginning of November.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Yesterday, 11:43 AM
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QUOTE(Boomer @ Oct 14 2017, 09:31 AM) *
Trying to gauge the interest, or lack thereof, in this thread based on how many pages past years had for the long range winter thread at this time. I know it will pick up in the coming weeks, but we are about ten pages shorter than this time last year. Wonder if the past two winters have people a little more disinterested than usual, or people just being shy before winter. smile.gif

this is probably the second most nervous (behind the fall leading in to super nino) I've been for an upcoming winter setup. Its been an awful fall and cold shots are more short lived than they were even last year so far, not to mention bone dry.

Something substantial needs to happen to flip the pattern, the good news is its still extremely early to even act like we know whats coming and Halloween sometimes features those big pattern changing storms. But the consensus is definitely for a warmer winter outside the media, so maybe that plays in our favor, usually when everyone is hedging one way, the opposite is what tends to occur lol.
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Boomer
post Yesterday, 11:53 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 15 2017, 10:43 AM) *
this is probably the second most nervous (behind the fall leading in to super nino) I've been for an upcoming winter setup. Its been an awful fall and cold shots are more short lived than they were even last year so far, not to mention bone dry.

Something substantial needs to happen to flip the pattern, the good news is its still extremely early to even act like we know whats coming and Halloween sometimes features those big pattern changing storms. But the consensus is definitely for a warmer winter outside the media, so maybe that plays in our favor, usually when everyone is hedging one way, the opposite is what tends to occur lol.

Personally, I am expecting AN temps for most of the Ohio valley and Northeast. However, based on almost every long range model, it looks like it will be a wet winter for the Ohio valley, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast. I would take my chances with AN snowfall in all three of those regions, as temps don't look to be super AN. With that said, I think we are going to see blocking be a bigger factor this year. We haven't seen real blocking for at least 5 years now. All in all, I think it will at least be an active winter. I wouldn't get too worried yet unless you live in the MidAtl.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Yesterday, 02:03 PM
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Sneak peak at soil moisture forecasting using anomalies over the past 30 days.
Attached File  Oct17Preview.jpg ( 1.2MB ) Number of downloads: 1


GEFS mean run total precip:
Attached File  10_15_17_GEFS_Precip.png ( 369.22K ) Number of downloads: 1


The most important differences in my mind are 1) convection on the plains shuts off completely and 2) the overall upper level pattern retrogrades with the Aleutian low and southern ridge shifting west. This results in lots of dry downslope across the northern plains and sets up potential NW flow across the Northeast; all of this movement is consistent with 99-00 analog.

Also worthy of note is the dryness across the Northeast. Given that dry soils cool off more quickly than wet soils this indicates there could be a rapid transition to winter coming up across the Northeast US/Southeast Canada.


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