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> Spring 2017
bigmt
post Today, 12:48 PM
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12z GEFS 500mb height anomalies / 2m temp anomalies.

Hour 240 - Day 10:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_4155tg.png ( 964.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 300 - Day 12.5:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_51frtg.png ( 994.42K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 360 - Day 15:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_61frtg.png ( 1010.6K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Today, 02:05 PM
Post #1102




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12z NAEFS temp probabilities, days 8-14:

Attached File  nhhgfvst.png ( 78.86K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Today, 02:16 PM
Post #1103




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EC has stepped up to freezing rain warnings for parts of the region in advance of the low ejecting northward against the sagging arctic high.

12z ECMWF brings another system out of the south and into Eastern Canada for the end of the month into the beginning of April, then another on a similar trajectory near the 4th. The OP runs have been on the active side recently - wet / white and various shades of the kitchen sink between them.
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bigmt
post Today, 02:23 PM
Post #1104




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Dynamic & active - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
PERSIST OF A RELATIVELY ACTIVE FLOW REGIME FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE U.S. NORTHWEST. THE FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST, WITH A NUMBER OF
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM ACROSS CANADA, AND A MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS
THE CONUS. PARTIAL PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS WILL OCCUR
PERIODICALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEASTERN U.S.

SUCH PHASING WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF OCCURRING ON DAY 3 (12Z
TUE) ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A
NORTHERN COMPONENT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A SOUTHERN COMPONENT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVE EAST, WITH THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT BY
DAY 4 (12Z WED) OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WHICH SKIRTS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON DAY 5. CONSENSUS IS HIGH IN THE
GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, AS IT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW POSSIBLE BY DAY 6 (12Z FRI) ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
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snowgeek93
post Today, 02:53 PM
Post #1105




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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 25 2017, 12:29 PM) *
I have to say I'm now quite tempted to run a top 10 for all of the stations on my list but it would seem way too time-consuming even for me.

Here's Pearson and Buttonville's top 10 list FWIW...

Pearson International Airport (YYZ) top 10 list (1937-2017):

1. 1938/1939: 207.4cm
2. 1949/1950: 196.4cm
3. 2007/2008: 194cm
4. 1964/1965: 190.6cm
5. 1971/1972: 188.9cm
6. 1951/1952: 184.8cm
7. 1942/1943: 182.4cm
8. 1970/1971: 171.7cm
9. 1966/1967: 165.5cm
10. 1940/1941: 164cm

Buttonville Airport top 10 list (1986-2017):

1. 2008/2009: 253cm
2. 2007/2008: 251.6cm
3. 1992/1993: 189cm
4. 1998/1999: 187.2cm
5. 1996/1997: 186.6cm
6. 2000/2001: 186.5cm
7. 2013/2014: 184.8cm
8. 2002/2003: 178.4cm
9. 1995/1996: 170cm
10. 2010/2011: 168.1cm



--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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EOsnowmom
post Today, 02:53 PM
Post #1106




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QUOTE(newfiebrit @ Mar 25 2017, 11:15 AM) *
Not sure what our top 10 snowiest winters would be though I would love to see that list. If we are going on modern records since 1942 this is the top few here from a 2002 report and I'm not sure in the past 15 years there have been any above 500cm here.

2000/01 - 648.4cm
55/56 - 576cm
77/78 - 570.9cm
54/55 - 567.9cm

Totals are completely insane! What's your average snowfall? I think I'd like to move to Newfoundland!
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bigmt
post Today, 02:59 PM
Post #1107




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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Mar 25 2017, 03:53 PM) *
Here's Pearson and Buttonville's top 10 list FWIW...


Nice work geek! Crowd-sourcing this information has advantages, no doubt.
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bigmt
post Today, 03:03 PM
Post #1108




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QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Mar 25 2017, 03:53 PM) *
Totals are completely insane! What's your average snowfall? I think I'd like to move to Newfoundland!


YYT averages 334.9cm annually. A big league player by that much sought-after metric.
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snowgeek93
post Today, 03:21 PM
Post #1109




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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 25 2017, 03:59 PM) *
Nice work geek! Crowd-sourcing this information has advantages, no doubt.

It would be interesting to see that list expanded to other locations as well but we're not made of time unfortunately tongue.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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snowgeek93
post Today, 03:30 PM
Post #1110




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QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 25 2017, 12:03 PM) *
A summer worthy of a complaint thread maybe, depending on your preferences laugh.gif

https://ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?...mp;n=7122944B-1

It was very wet but a very active summer. I remember that upper level low pattern we got stuck in where the day would start out sunny but clouds would begin building around noon and almost like clock work t-storm's would fire up throughout the afternoon before clearing into the evening. Some days were just total washouts.

There was a good amount of sunshine as well so it wasn't all bad and and as a weather enthusiast it was quite an impressive season and year in general. It's the reason I'm so interested in this stuff now tongue.gif


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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travis3000
post Today, 05:53 PM
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Honestly looking into the long range I think the snow threats are done for Southern Ontario. The Muskoka to Ottawa/Montreal corridor and northwards seem at low to moderate risk for another blast of snow IMO.

This post has been edited by travis3000: Today, 05:53 PM


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
TOTAL: 132cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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bigmt
post Today, 06:58 PM
Post #1112




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Activity could just equal spring sogginess in some areas but a lack of QPF isn't a major issue via the GFS ensembles:

Attached File  gfs_ens_apcpn_namer_64.png ( 126.44K ) Number of downloads: 1


In terms of snow specifically there remains a threat for Atlantic Canada this coming week, hour 96:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_16.png ( 153.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 108:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_18.png ( 149.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 120:

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_secan_20.png ( 143.51K ) Number of downloads: 0


The 12z Euro was also intriguing for Newfoundland before the month is out.
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