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NorEaster07
Posted on: Today, 02:24 PM


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From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 25 2017, 02:32 PM) *
Any heating at the surface with enough mositure and with the ULL aloft may provide with scattered showers and storms that could bring hail with them. Typical instability idea especially if we manage to stay on the eastern side of the ULL swinging through.

Those temps this time of year is really impressive.


Should get some nice looking clouds from it...

Today we went from a heavenly morning to an uncomfortable afternoon. The sun made it so hot and it was humid. Made it to mid 80s.


And then............ Clouds..............


And then .............. What else....... another day of precip in the books! rolleyes.gif


3:20pm pouring here right now







So sick of having a wet ground. Little steam off the pavement.


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2231083 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

NorEaster07
Posted on: Today, 08:50 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From Taunton yesterday.

Below 0 "F" at 18,000?? WOW.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
137 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Monday into Wednesday...

Anomalous mid level trof moves eastward from the Great Lakes Mon
pushing into New England. Anomalous upper trough/cold pool aloft overhead will result in
slightly below normal temps with comfortable humidity levels.

late Tue and may linger into early Wed. Temps
continue to cool aloft Mon which may trigger a few showers or an
isold t-storm in the interior, but best chance of showers/t-storms
will likely be on Tue as the trof approaches and core of coldest air
aloft moves overhead. Timing of when the trof exits is somewhat
uncertain but GFS and ECMWF still have -21C at 500 mb 12z Wed before
temps aloft warm in the afternoon. So expect isold showers and
t-storms again on Wed with focus more across eastern half New Eng.
Temps through Wed will average near or slightly below normal with
highs mainly 75-80 and lows in the 50s.

Thursday and Friday...

Pattern change signaled as upper trof moves out with rising heights
and zonal flow across New Eng. This will result in a warming trend
with temps into the 80s Thu and possibly 90+ on Fri. Humidity levels
should still be comfortable Thu as dry air remains in the lower
levels, but higher dewpoints will be moving in by Fri. Mainly dry
weather, but developing warm advection may bring a few showers Thu
afternoon to northern areas, then chance of afternoon showers/t-
storms Fri as atmosphere destabilizes.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2231073 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

NorEaster07
Posted on: Today, 08:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Check this out. Interesting. As I wait for the Freezing line aloft to pass overhead I noticed something..

Shaded colors are temps at 10,000 feet.
Numbers are the surface temps.

Notice, the 70s at the surface in the Northeast is where its still above freezing at 10,000'.


That's a large airmass below freezing for this time of year. Interesting.
The sun can only do so much when its this cold aloft. Equates to 70s here with sun end of June.





I love Louisville wording this morning!


QUOTE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
647 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Another surge of invigorating, crisp Canadian air will keep
temperatures even cooler for Monday, with afternoon highs only
reaching the mid to upper 70s for many locations. While not record
breaking, the afternoon high could come within a few degrees of the
record low max for Bowling Green. See the climate section of the AFD
for more details.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2231072 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

NorEaster07
Posted on: Today, 07:24 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(NewEnglander @ Jun 24 2017, 01:13 PM) *
I used JFM that was in low negatives, I didn't use years with -.4 and -.5


Ahh, got it, thanks.

QUOTE(NewEnglander @ Jun 24 2017, 01:15 PM) *
I did a test. That map's "precip" does not include snow. I had avg winter for precip on the map but my snowfall totals were above avg or I was below avg precip on the map but my snow total was above avg.


Which map are you referring to? The blended one? Interesting mention though but believe it or not, above normal snowfall doesn't mean above normal precip. 12 inches of snow can be above normal for January but it also could mean 1" of precip which is below normal. You know? So maps should be including snowfall melted down.

Example:
Bridgeport Winter 2016-17 got 41" of snow which is 13" above normal.
Precip for D-J-F-M was only 12.96" (including the snow) which was 1 inch "below" normal

Not including March the precip was more below normal while the snow was still above normal.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2231068 · Replies: · Views: 15,019

NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:15 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Tornado in NJ around 7am this morning.

https://youtu.be/c4ItGhhPwDo

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2231052 · Replies: · Views: 1,898

NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Current temps at 10,000 feet



10,000 foot temps Tuesday morning per NAM

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2231051 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 01:49 PM


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Canadian12z has a clipper and transfers to a coastal on July 3rd. Wait, what? blink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2231049 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 09:43 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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IMBY Since March 1st these are the times I had at least 3 days IN A ROW being dry with no precip.


Only once in March and twice a month thereafter.


March 20-24

April 9-12
April 14-16

May 9-12
May 17-19

June 21-23
June 8-13



Would like to have more days in a row without mist, drizzle, or rain please

#NeedNewUmbrella
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2231032 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 07:26 AM


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QUOTE(NewEnglander @ Jun 22 2017, 12:02 PM) *
If the esno will be neutral in the negatives for JFM here is a blend of some of those years. Two -0.3 in here.

I saw an enso graph and it looks neutral to me in the low negatives


Aside from 2017 being the warm one, that looks like some cherries were used.

What happened to these neutral years:

1959
1961
1966
1978
1980
1981
1985
1989
1990
1992
1993
1996
2001
2003
2005
2008
2012
2013
2014

?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2231027 · Replies: · Views: 15,019

NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:34 AM


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Loop past 4 hrs to 7:25am


Back clear edge now entering NJ. Couple more hours of rain "here" and we're done.


Also note, no lightning icons north Philly. Really no Thunderstorms around.


Northern CT getting screwed out of much rain.





Edit: Up to 0.45" here. Rain letting up a bit but dark and gloomy and humid out there.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2231021 · Replies: · Views: 1,898

NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:26 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Not a bad summer so far. Aside from the clouds and rain that's been annoying at least we're having breaks from the warmth and humidity. Plenty of summer left though

4 maps.


Hot in NorthWest




Cold in Northeast




Up and Down the Jet goes.






The south loves the dips too!


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2231019 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:57 AM


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Steady rain here.


Tornado Warnings in NJ. Marine Warnings off the coasts






QUOTE
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
639 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a


* Tornado Warning for...
Southeastern Mercer County in central New Jersey...
Northern Monmouth County in central New Jersey...
Southeastern Middlesex County in northern New Jersey...


* Until 715 AM EDT


* At 639 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing both
tornadoes and extensive straight line wind damage were located
along a line extending from near Yorketown to Windsor, moving east
at 35 mph.


HAZARD...Tornado.


SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.


IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.


* Locations impacted include...
Long Branch, Middletown, Marlboro, Manalapan, Tinton Falls,
Holmdel, Red Bank, Hightstown, Highlands, Cranbury, Roosevelt,
Windsor, East Freehold, Robertsville, Clearbrook Park, Yorketown,
Twin Rivers, Navesink, Lincroft and Morganville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.


This line of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest
floor of a building.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2231016 · Replies: · Views: 1,898

NorEaster07
Posted on: Yesterday, 04:41 AM


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Tropical morning.

Light rain. Everything deep green. Dripping off trees. Slight breeze. Humid dews in low 70s. Temps in 70s.

1:25-5:25am loop.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2231012 · Replies: · Views: 1,898

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jun 22 2017, 09:36 AM


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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Jun 21 2017, 10:06 AM) *
Oh wow...now with regard to the (freezing rain advisory) this will as well no longer be used for areas such as mine, Baltimore?



QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jun 21 2017, 08:02 PM) *
It is my understanding that the lake effect snow watch is the only one being discontinued at particular offices, everything else is being discontinued at all offices.


Yup, frz rain advsry gone for everyone.


QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Jun 22 2017, 08:14 AM) *
I think eliminating the freezing rain advisory is a big mistake,


I agree. Seeing a "Winter Weather Advisory" instead might get blown off as light snow and some might not click the alert to see its actually for ice. Seeing freezing rain in the alert title gives more sense of concern.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2230855 · Replies: · Views: 15,019

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jun 22 2017, 05:27 AM


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3 Maps...


1st. Cindy's path





Then next week, Doing the Dip.






Looks like Tuesday the coldest day next week. Can I say coldest in Summer? Probably still means 80s. Most likely 70s north of .... DC?


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2230845 · Replies: · Views: 20,332

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jun 22 2017, 05:17 AM


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Loop last 2 days

http://weather.gc.ca/satellite/satellite_a...am&type=vvi

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2230844 · Replies: · Views: 7,945

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jun 22 2017, 05:11 AM


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Looks like Landfall was made about 4am+. Lets zoom in very close to see exactly where.





Put the surface winds on to see where the actual center circulation is. Louisiana in the books for the landfall not Texas. Looks like Just west of Holly Beach.





QUOTE
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

...CINDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 93.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued east of Morgan City
Louisiana and west of High Island Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Radar and surface observations indicate that Cindy made landfall
between Cameron, Louisiana and Port Arthur, Texas within the last
couple of hours.

At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 93.6 West. Cindy is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn toward
the north-northeast is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward
the northeast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center will
move into southeastern Arkansas early Friday, and into Tennessee
later on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Cindy should weaken to a tropical depression later
today, and become a remnant low tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
to the southeast and southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).



  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2230843 · Replies: · Views: 7,945

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jun 21 2017, 05:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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In motion 2:45-5:45pm. Note the storm damage reports showing up in that line of storms Philly region. 1 cell missed me to my south by 20 miles. Poured buckets in southern NY. Sunny here 25 miles away.







Just a "couple" of storm damage reports!



QUOTE
0520 PM TSTM WND DMG NORTH HANOVER TWP 40.08N 74.59W
06/21/2017 BURLINGTON NJ SOCIAL MEDIA

TOP HALF BLOWN OFF LARGE MAGNOLIA TREE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.


0509 PM TSTM WND DMG EASTAMPTON TWP 40.00N 74.75W
06/21/2017 BURLINGTON NJ NWS EMPLOYEE
SEVERAL TRESS DOWN... TIME ESTIMATED

0450 PM TSTM WND DMG COLLINGSWOOD 39.92N 75.08W
06/21/2017 CAMDEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER
LARGE BRANCH DOWN ON SOME WIRES... TIME ESTIMATED


0400 PM TSTM WND DMG POTTSTOWN 40.25N 75.64W
06/21/2017 MONTGOMERY PA SOCIAL MEDIA
TRESS AND POWERLINES DOWN WITH DAMAGE TO SOME HOMES...
WINDS 70+MPH... TIME ESTIMATED


0403 PM TSTM WND DMG POTTSTOWN 40.25N 75.64W
06/21/2017 MONTGOMERY PA TRAINED SPOTTER
SEVERAL TREES AND WIRES DOWN



0412 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 W GREEN LANE 40.34N 75.51W
06/21/2017 MONTGOMERY PA TRAINED SPOTTER
TRESS AND WIRES DOWN... TIME ESTIMATED



0414 PM TSTM WND DMG FRANCONIA 40.31N 75.36W
06/21/2017 MONTGOMERY PA TRAINED SPOTTER
TWO LARGE LIMBS DOWN... TIME ESTIMATED



0414 PM TSTM WND DMG UPPER PROVIDENCE TWP 40.16N 75.49W
06/21/2017 MONTGOMERY PA TRAINED SPOTTER
SEVERAL TREES AND WIRES BLOWN DOWN.


0426 PM TSTM WND DMG NORRISTOWN 40.12N 75.34W
06/21/2017 MONTGOMERY PA SOCIAL MEDIA
LARGE BRANCHES DOWN... TIME ESTIMATED


0432 PM TSTM WND DMG LOWER MERION TWP 40.03N 75.29W
06/21/2017 MONTGOMERY PA TRAINED SPOTTER
SEVERAL WINDS AND TREES BLOWN DOWN


06/21/2017 DELAWARE PA TRAINED SPOTTER
NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN... TIME ESTIMATED


0450 PM TSTM WND DMG COLLINGSWOOD 39.92N 75.08W
06/21/2017 CAMDEN NJ TRAINED SPOTTER
LARGE BRANCH DOWN ON SOME WIRES... TIME ESTIMATED


0458 PM TSTM WND DMG SOUTH PHILADELPHIA 39.91N 75.21W
06/21/2017 PHILADELPHIA PA TRAINED SPOTTER
LARGE TREE DOWN... TIME ESTIMATED


0515 PM TSTM WND DMG E EASTAMPTON TWP 40.00N 74.75W
06/21/2017 BURLINGTON NJ NWS EMPLOYEE
LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AND FENCE DAMAGE
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2230819 · Replies: · Views: 6,148

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jun 21 2017, 04:49 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
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Rainfall totals last 12hrs estimated by radar.

3-7" of rain last 12hrs. Reds, Oranges, Yellows.


  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2230780 · Replies: · Views: 7,945

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jun 21 2017, 04:46 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,623
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


Last 4 hours. 12:40-4:40amCDT




From 4amCDT Advisory. Next update at 7am


QUOTE
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 91.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Alabama-Florida border
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas
coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was
located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Cindy is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northwest and
then toward the north is expected tonight and early Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Cindy will approach the coast of
southwest Louisiana and southeast Texas late today or tonight, and
move inland over southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. Slight weakening
is forecast to begin on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km),
mainly north through northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over
southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and
the Florida Panhandle through Thursday. This rainfall could cause
life-threatening flash flooding in these areas.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6
inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and
eastern Texas through Thursday. Rainfall should spread
northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5
inches with locally higher amounts possible.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the
northern Gulf of Mexico coast over the eastern part of the warning
area. These conditions should spread westward within the warning
area through early Thursday.

STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is
expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning
area, with isolated areas possibly up to 4 feet.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning through
tonight from the western Florida Panhandle to southern Louisiana



  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2230779 · Replies: · Views: 7,945

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jun 20 2017, 08:16 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
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Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
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Flooding golf course in Georgia near Atlanta
.
https://twitter.com/JwJamesWiley/status/877303330036482048

Attached Image



Getting ready.

https://twitter.com/ScottieWAFB/status/877280971808280579

Attached Image





  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2230763 · Replies: · Views: 7,945

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jun 20 2017, 07:09 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


Check out the report from Louisiana past hour. Gonna be a long/interesting night.


  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2230758 · Replies: · Views: 7,945

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jun 20 2017, 04:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,623
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jun 20 2017, 05:33 PM) *
One hour loop from the effing amazing GOES16


Love Goes16. Awesome.


QUOTE(nolanola @ Jun 20 2017, 05:04 PM) *
If you look at the satellite loop, it looks like the storm is moving east or maybe even southeast.



QUOTE(risingriver @ Jun 20 2017, 05:18 PM) *
Based on that loop, it appears to be drifting south an perhaps moving a bit east.


You guys are right.. Interesting. Could be doing a loopty Loop.


Last 4 hrs. 12:40-4:40CST

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2230750 · Replies: · Views: 7,945

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jun 20 2017, 04:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,623
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


Wind and waves video from LA coast

https://twitter.com/CaresseJ/status/877265644730937345
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2230743 · Replies: · Views: 7,945

NorEaster07
Posted on: Jun 20 2017, 03:30 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,623
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864


4:30pmEST map with Wind Gusts

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2230741 · Replies: · Views: 7,945

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