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> Forecasts for Romania keep getting worse, ...for the past month, they've been all wrong
Razvan
post Jul 9 2009, 07:05 PM
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Hi guys

For the past month, at least, forecasts for Romania, especially for the SE have been awful. At first I thought that this is a very awkward summer season and this makes it easier for meteorologists to go wrong. However, it's been happening for too long and errors are simply too many and to large to go unnoticed...
For the past two weeks, the forecast for Constanta has been showing 90-95% chances of thunderstorm, when in reality, judging from my experience, I would have put them at 20% maximum. Of course, there was no thunderstorm - only on a day with 95%, a storm passed some 20 miles away. Also, on Monday, dispite 0-5% T-storm chance on Accu, we've had a huge 30mm downpour with lightning and everything. Even so, for the next hours, that event was rated on Accu as being a "0.3 mm rain past 24h"...
What's even worse is that Current Conditions, which used to be 100% accurate, are all messed up, too... E.g. - Tonight, a T-storm was announced. The closest one I managed to spot passed some 30-35 miles to the NV. At 23.00 hours, local time, Accuweather said "Currently, for Constanta, Romania - T storm". Half an hour ago, it was "Currently, for Constanta, Romania - rain". Throughout all this period, there have been only patchy clouds, with average cloud cover at approx. 5% and a bright foll moon...

Anybody have an idea what's causing this?

(Also, as a suggestion - Who's providing forecasts for this part of the world? Could you check on them, 'cause they seem to be doing a lousy job lately...)
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WeatherMatrix
post Jul 13 2009, 12:24 PM
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QUOTE(Razvan @ Jul 9 2009, 08:05 PM) *
Hi guys

For the past month, at least, forecasts for Romania, especially for the SE have been awful. At first I thought that this is a very awkward summer season and this makes it easier for meteorologists to go wrong. However, it's been happening for too long and errors are simply too many and to large to go unnoticed...
For the past two weeks, the forecast for Constanta has been showing 90-95% chances of thunderstorm, when in reality, judging from my experience, I would have put them at 20% maximum. Of course, there was no thunderstorm - only on a day with 95%, a storm passed some 20 miles away. Also, on Monday, dispite 0-5% T-storm chance on Accu, we've had a huge 30mm downpour with lightning and everything. Even so, for the next hours, that event was rated on Accu as being a "0.3 mm rain past 24h"...
What's even worse is that Current Conditions, which used to be 100% accurate, are all messed up, too... E.g. - Tonight, a T-storm was announced. The closest one I managed to spot passed some 30-35 miles to the NV. At 23.00 hours, local time, Accuweather said "Currently, for Constanta, Romania - T storm". Half an hour ago, it was "Currently, for Constanta, Romania - rain". Throughout all this period, there have been only patchy clouds, with average cloud cover at approx. 5% and a bright foll moon...

Anybody have an idea what's causing this?

(Also, as a suggestion - Who's providing forecasts for this part of the world? Could you check on them, 'cause they seem to be doing a lousy job lately...)


All of our forecasts are produced in-house by modifying a model blend. In remote areas, especially near mountains, both current conditions & forecasts could be inaccurate. However, if you'd be willing to copy and paste this info into an official Trouble Ticket by filling out this form, our forecasters can check to make sure your city is not mismatched to a bad location.


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