Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

12 Pages V  « < 10 11 12  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
grace
post Aug 20 2017, 10:30 PM
Post #221




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,026
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 20 2017, 10:19 PM) *
Latest JAMSTEC is still trending toward a cooler ENSO... Nino 3.4 still not below 0 though.

Definite -PDO too.


d'oh


Temp forecast may not be too bad...i believe trough will be centered over middle of U.S though....but the ENSO forecast is still clueless. It'll be cooler than that.


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Aug 20 2017, 10:31 PM
Post #222




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,026
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





Also I totally disagree with fall JAMSTEC fall forecast
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 20 2017, 10:59 PM
Post #223




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,338
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(grace @ Aug 20 2017, 11:31 PM) *
Also I totally disagree with fall JAMSTEC fall forecast

...oh yeah, fall is a thing. laugh.gif



Another frustrating JAMSTEC update.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
alczervik
post Yesterday, 05:30 AM
Post #224




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 308
Joined: 11-July 10
Member No.: 23,135





With the seemingly never ending eastern trough in place, I expect 2014-2015 all over again.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Yesterday, 04:51 PM
Post #225




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,026
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





PNA will once again determine a lot for winter. If the recent spike in +PNA & upcoming spike is indeed a trend that continues into winter then we will have a great winter. However, if predominant -PNA returns like last winter then expect last winter. Some -PNA is fine, but we need these strong spikes & a little NAO help to really give us the winter we want. I think we will get NAO help this winter...at least more than last winter due to -QBO & low solar.

Yes, I know it's not that simple but certainly is one of the biggest factors to watch.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 06:20 PM
Post #226




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,338
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(grace @ Aug 21 2017, 05:51 PM) *
PNA will once again determine a lot for winter. If the recent spike in +PNA & upcoming spike is indeed a trend that continues into winter then we will have a great winter. However, if predominant -PNA returns like last winter then expect last winter. Some -PNA is fine, but we need these strong spikes & a little NAO help to really give us the winter we want. I think we will get NAO help this winter...at least more than last winter due to -QBO & low solar.

Yes, I know it's not that simple but certainly is one of the biggest factors to watch.

Right. Also, NE Pacific is forecast to be a lot cooler than last winter. Hopefully this means there'll be an abundance of western troughs. Those are fun.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Yesterday, 06:21 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Yesterday, 11:54 PM
Post #227




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,026
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 21 2017, 06:20 PM) *
Right. Also, NE Pacific is forecast to be a lot cooler than last winter. Hopefully this means there'll be an abundance of western troughs. Those are fun.



I'm not sold on cooler Pac off coast of Cali. Sure seems like persistent ridging is wanting to take hold out west
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
blizzardOf96
post Today, 10:41 AM
Post #228




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,646
Joined: 23-January 12
From: Toronto,On
Member No.: 26,371





I do believe that some form of a La Nina is likely this winter. The ECMWF/JAMSTEC are likely playing catchup.

Here is the latest from my blog: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/2017/08...a-on-table.html


--------------------
Follow me on Twitter: @Blizzardof96

Check out my Wx Blog: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

12 Pages V  « < 10 11 12
Reply to this topicStart new topic
19 User(s) are reading this topic (19 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd August 2017 - 03:40 PM