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> December 19-20 MidAtlantic/NE Winter Storm, Forecast Thread Closed; Please See "OBS"
Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Dec 15 2009, 11:17 PM
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This is why I have been stating all day that the models will start to trend towards the ECM..You see the GFS doing that tonight and you seen the NAM doing this as well..


The GFS has come in closer west as well as more N...

Always and I mean always look to the ensemble means and its members!

That is the reason why i posted 18 Z Ensemble mean as it was west of the OP..and now the GFS follows...

This one is not over ...perhaps ..potentially just beginning wink.gif
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Superstorm93
post Dec 15 2009, 11:17 PM
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I guess this is a step in the right direction.


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Millersville University Meteorology Major
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missmarisa
post Dec 15 2009, 11:18 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Dec 15 2009, 11:13 PM) *
BINGO


both runs had a few things going in our favor tonight... wink.gif


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tick629
post Dec 15 2009, 11:18 PM
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QUOTE(cdubbs07 @ Dec 15 2009, 11:16 PM) *
For all intensive purposes, this is as about a good a run as you could ask for for Baltimore/Washington. Some people are curious as to the two low pressures and how this could happen. I think that the GFS is right on and that the real storm was the second low all along. Now if we can just get this thing to do the normal westward trend over the next 48 hours we will be in good shape.

finally that westward trend might benefit us on the east coast tongue.gif


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Alexw
post Dec 15 2009, 11:19 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Dec 15 2009, 11:17 PM) *
This is why I have been stating all day that the models will start to trend towards the ECM..You see the GFS doing that tonight and you seen the NAM doing this as well..
The GFS has come in closer west as well as more N...

Always and I mean always look to the ensemble means and its members!

That is the reason why i posted 18 Z Ensemble mean as it was west of the OP..and now the GFS follows...

This one is not over ...perhaps ..potentially just beginning wink.gif



long night for me
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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 15 2009, 11:19 PM
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Wow the storm is still too far east for a decent hit, but yet again as I have said before, the trend is all we are looking for this far out, and right now the GFS is coming into better agreement with the EURO, now we need the EURO to continue the same theme and we are getting more confident. Yet again this is still one run of the GFS, we need to follow the trends in consecutive runs, and we need the GFS to continue to come westward. We then would like to see the Canadian and UKMET models come into the same trends. Then we are getting better consensus. I have to go to sleep now because I have two finals tomorrow. Good night and remember this is where we like the GFS this far out.
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LoveNYCSnow
post Dec 15 2009, 11:20 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Dec 15 2009, 11:17 PM) *
This is why I have been stating all day that the models will start to trend towards the ECM..You see the GFS doing that tonight and you seen the NAM doing this as well..
The GFS has come in closer west as well as more N...

Always and I mean always look to the ensemble means and its members!

That is the reason why i posted 18 Z Ensemble mean as it was west of the OP..and now the GFS follows...

This one is not over ...perhaps ..potentially just beginning wink.gif


the low did not trend so much as throw out basically an entirely new situation, the end result is a low closer to the coast but its a different low then the one before.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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SnowMan11
post Dec 15 2009, 11:20 PM
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QUOTE(berg_one @ Dec 15 2009, 11:14 PM) *
My prediction for Philly- Snow saturday, coating- 1" more snow likely in higher elevations, about 1-2 for portions of northern NJ.


huh.gif

QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Dec 15 2009, 11:17 PM) *
I guess this is a step in the right direction.


Yes it is.


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Anthony
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BtownWxWatcher
post Dec 15 2009, 11:20 PM
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So do you think we have improvements with this run?


--------------------
No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
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Winter 2014-2015:Weak El Niño? Return of the Polar Vortex or Torch?
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Removed_Member_baltimore_big_daddy_*
post Dec 15 2009, 11:20 PM
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i hope and pray the euro doesnt move lol
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Removed_Member_baltimore_big_daddy_*
post Dec 15 2009, 11:21 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Dec 15 2009, 11:20 PM) *
So do you think we have improvements with this run?
definately
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Dec 15 2009, 11:21 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 15 2009, 11:20 PM) *
the low did not trend so much as throw out basically an entirely new situation, the end result is a low closer to the coast but its a different low then the one before.

The GFS is closer to the coast correct? it has trended west correct? The evolution is different ..that is to be expected..Its trending towards the ECM
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sw03181
post Dec 15 2009, 11:21 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 15 2009, 11:20 PM) *
the low did not trend so much as throw out basically an entirely new situation, the end result is a low closer to the coast but its a different low then the one before.

that first low that goes OTS really shouldn't be there. thats the gfs acting up.


--------------------
Rob
2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 85.5"
2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 60.95"


[size=2]2014-2015 Winter Wx predictions (Nov. 1 -- Mar. 31) :
Total snowfall: 40“ ±/- 6"
Actual: 14.25"

11/14: 0.25"
11/26: 2.5"
11/27: T
12/2: T
12/11: 0.5"
12/20: T (flurries)
12/21 2.0“
1/2: T (flurries)
1/3: 1"
1/6: T (dusting)
1/7: T (flurries)
1/9: 3"
1/14: T (dusting)
1/24: 5"
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PSUweatherman
post Dec 15 2009, 11:22 PM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 15 2009, 11:21 PM) *
that first low that goes OTS really shouldn't be there. thats the gfs acting up.

Yup. I have seen this a thousand times. I'll call it now...It's one piece of energy that hangs back and phases.
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Removed_Member_baltimore_big_daddy_*
post Dec 15 2009, 11:23 PM
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UKMET 500 MB AT 72 HRS...
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Removed_Member_nnj snow_*
post Dec 15 2009, 11:23 PM
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IMO here is what we just learned from this GFS run:

1) Feedback issues. I don't see much consistency. Most runs have been OTS but never in the same place. Definetly something wrong because of the funky solutions it has.

2) Trend. I myself believe trends mean nothing at this point because it can trend west to a blizzard then trend all the way back to OTS by the time the event occurs. However, it is moving in the direction of the EURO and other models.

3) This storm is FAR from over. In fact, its just begun.

Read up on Steve D, I like what hes writing on his site.
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LoveNYCSnow
post Dec 15 2009, 11:23 PM
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QUOTE(PSUweatherman @ Dec 15 2009, 11:22 PM) *
Yup. I have seen this a thousand times. I'll call it now...It's one piece of energy that hangs back and phases.


if it goes slightly west and phases it's going to be a very fun sunday night up and down the east coast from richmond north.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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PSUweatherman
post Dec 15 2009, 11:23 PM
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QUOTE(baltimore_big_daddy @ Dec 15 2009, 11:20 PM) *
i hope and pray the euro doesnt move lol

I hope and pray it moves back west and bombs out...it's still too far to the east.
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Dec 15 2009, 11:23 PM
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UKMEt day 3

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PSUWeatherNewbie
post Dec 15 2009, 11:24 PM
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QUOTE(sw03181 @ Dec 15 2009, 11:21 PM) *
that first low that goes OTS really shouldn't be there. thats the gfs acting up.


I believe that low develops on the arctic front which is now over the Gulf of Mexico, or actually just the cold front that moved through this afternoon and the secondary front is the arctic front. The front stalls from northern FL, southern GA through the Gulf of Mexico. THis low is the one that develops in a day. The subtropical jet is ready to rumble. Just look at the expansion of the clouds.
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