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> Long Range Autumn 2017 Outlooks, Thoughts & Discussions, Is summer hanging on or will winter come early?
Boomer
post Today, 01:11 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 16 2017, 10:45 AM) *
Well, this look is certainly interesting.

[attachment=331778:gfs_z500...rt_us_44.png]


The OP GFS has been flirting around with the idea of some sort of phaser in the midwest, followed up with a northeast storm as well. Obviously, being so early in the season, I would lean towards it being almost all rain. But if we can get the jet stream that amplified, say from a recurving typhoon or something, October snow is not out of the question. Like mentioned, this will probably be our transitional storm to at least usher in the new pattern that looks to be coming (and possibly staying for a while based on ensembles). Will have to keep an eye out! Could be our first storm of the year to track where someone gets measureable snow.
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NorEaster07
post Today, 01:12 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 16 2017, 12:45 PM) *
Well, this look is certainly interesting.


Looks like this front next week on Monday October 23rd coming across kicks off the entire pattern change..... This moves to the Eastern Seaboard Tuesday, and then........

Attached File  GFS18.jpg ( 428.84K ) Number of downloads: 3




This is for Wednesday as the Jet digs down to the southeast while the hot dry ridge builds in the West

This trough mid next week lifts back out but watch what happens...

Attached File  GFS19.jpg ( 314.18K ) Number of downloads: 2




That weekend another one dives down deep.
Edit:: "Maybe" (Hour 300 here!)

Attached File  GFS20.jpg ( 313.47K ) Number of downloads: 1




I'd like the NAO to be more negative but that huge positive PNA might be all it takes.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ref...n/forecast.html


Attached File  NAO1.jpg ( 144.03K ) Number of downloads: 1



We'll see if we can reverse things where the warm ups are short lived with more deeper cold blasts.
Maybe Michigan & parts of GL & OV going from Summer to Winter skipping Fall?

It's been over 5 weeks now without worthy noted lingering troughs in the East.

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Today, 01:13 PM
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shaulov4
post Today, 01:42 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 16 2017, 02:12 PM) *
Looks like this front next week on Monday October 23rd coming across kicks off the entire pattern change..... This moves to the Eastern Seaboard Tuesday, and then........

Attached File  GFS18.jpg ( 428.84K ) Number of downloads: 3




This is for Wednesday as the Jet digs down to the southeast while the hot dry ridge builds in the West

This trough mid next week lifts back out but watch what happens...

Attached File  GFS19.jpg ( 314.18K ) Number of downloads: 2




That weekend another one dives down deep.
Edit:: "Maybe" (Hour 300 here!)

Attached File  GFS20.jpg ( 313.47K ) Number of downloads: 1




I'd like the NAO to be more negative but that huge positive PNA might be all it takes.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/ref...n/forecast.html


Attached File  NAO1.jpg ( 144.03K ) Number of downloads: 1

We'll see if we can reverse things where the warm ups are short lived with more deeper cold blasts.
Maybe Michigan & parts of GL & OV going from Summer to Winter skipping Fall?

It's been over 5 weeks now without worthy noted lingering troughs in the East.


Cold November, December, January thaw and February fun.....these are the things I'm thinking about, this is what I'm seeing the ghost of 2013-2014. We shall see.
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Undertakerson
post Today, 03:08 PM
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Euro look at the situation for the "pattern change" trough


First trough makes in roads - hard to say for certain but looks like elevated region of the interior could see a strip of white or some sort of frozen precip. If there is any blocking (and there is somewhat of a blocky signal going on) then the East could be in for a rough ride as (meaning - if) the system comes up the coast.
Attached File  f216.gif ( 106.83K ) Number of downloads: 0


Trough #2 waiting at the crest of the flattening Western Ridge

Attached File  f240.gif ( 106.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


Yes, Nor' the look of the PNA can, often times, be the only synoptic driver of the outcome - blocking not needed so much (for the east) when we see those large PNA+ #'s.
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NorEaster07
post Today, 03:18 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 16 2017, 04:08 PM) *
Euro look at the situation for the "pattern change" trough
First trough makes in roads - hard to say for certain but looks like elevated region of the interior could see a strip of white or some sort of frozen precip.


Looking at AccuPro animator Euro12z is too warm even for 5k. Aside the thickness not supporting it looks like 850s arent below freezing for Wed 2am-2pm time frame. The freezing line is in Canada still. Only northern Ohio has negative 850s but they are dry by that time.
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