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> Jan. 12-14 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 days out] FORECAST
RobB
post Jan 6 2018, 02:00 PM
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Talk about a roller coaster ride with temps..

CODE

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: LAT = 39.70 LON = -84.23

12Z JAN06
2 M SFC SFC 850 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP DEW PRS TMP RHU QPF HGT 500
(F) (F) (MB) (F) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
SAT 12Z 06-JAN -6.0 -10.2 1037 -6.2 15 0.00 535 508
SAT 18Z 06-JAN 12.2 1.3 1038 -5.4 7 0.00 538 510
SUN 00Z 07-JAN 7.1 0.2 1038 0.0 7 0.00 549 521
SUN 06Z 07-JAN -0.5 -4.6 1037 15.5 30 0.00 555 528
SUN 12Z 07-JAN 6.6 -2.7 1034 22.5 45 0.00 556 531
SUN 18Z 07-JAN 25.4 -1.8 1028 28.5 92 0.00 557 536
MON 00Z 08-JAN 30.1 8.4 1023 31.3 85 0.00 558 540
MON 06Z 08-JAN 33.4 19.8 1020 32.5 96 0.01 557 541
MON 12Z 08-JAN 33.3 31.4 1019 29.6 95 0.16 556 541
MON 18Z 08-JAN 34.7 33.1 1019 29.0 77 0.07 556 541
TUE 00Z 09-JAN 34.4 33.7 1021 32.7 8 0.01 558 541
TUE 06Z 09-JAN 27.6 26.1 1024 31.1 20 0.00 562 543
TUE 12Z 09-JAN 19.9 18.7 1027 36.3 31 0.00 566 545
TUE 18Z 09-JAN 33.8 28.9 1027 38.6 12 0.00 568 546
WED 00Z 10-JAN 26.9 24.0 1026 40.5 14 0.00 570 549
WED 06Z 10-JAN 32.9 30.3 1023 42.6 10 0.00 570 552
WED 12Z 10-JAN 38.2 37.3 1021 44.0 24 0.02 572 555
WED 18Z 10-JAN 47.3 45.8 1018 45.6 15 0.03 573 558
THU 00Z 11-JAN 49.2 48.0 1017 46.8 13 0.02 574 560
THU 06Z 11-JAN 48.7 47.5 1017 48.4 20 0.00 574 560
THU 12Z 11-JAN 47.9 46.6 1017 47.1 37 0.00 572 558
THU 18Z 11-JAN 50.2 48.0 1015 50.6 92 0.09 571 559
FRI 00Z 12-JAN 51.1 49.6 1013 49.4 72 0.05 570 559
FRI 06Z 12-JAN 48.5 48.3 1012 48.9 62 0.06 568 558
FRI 12Z 12-JAN 43.2 42.4 1014 46.4 97 0.06 566 555
FRI 18Z 12-JAN 40.0 37.4 1015 44.2 71 0.05 566 554
SAT 00Z 13-JAN 32.8 31.4 1014 46.4 62 0.06 564 553
SAT 06Z 13-JAN 30.5 29.4 1009 45.9 97 0.28 559 551
SAT 12Z 13-JAN 27.5 25.8 1008 33.4 81 0.34 551 545
SAT 18Z 13-JAN 28.4 19.2 1014 17.9 15 0.06 548 536
SUN 00Z 14-JAN 24.1 14.5 1021 11.5 43 0.00 544 528
SUN 06Z 14-JAN 19.6 8.6 1024 9.4 50 0.00 541 523
SUN 12Z 14-JAN 13.6 4.7 1027 6.7 64 0.00 538 517
SUN 18Z 14-JAN 19.9 0.4 1028 3.9 98 0.00 535 514
MON 00Z 15-JAN 16.5 1.2 1030 1.7 98 0.00 534 512
MON 06Z 15-JAN 13.8 2.9 1031 0.7 9 0.00 536 512
MON 12Z 15-JAN 13.6 3.6 1032 0.4 16 0.00 537 513
MON 18Z 15-JAN 22.2 0.1 1031 0.4 91 0.00 537 513
TUE 00Z 16-JAN 20.7 1.4 1031 4.1 99 0.00 539 516
TUE 06Z 16-JAN 17.5 2.0 1031 8.7 12 0.00 543 519
TUE 12Z 16-JAN 17.5 4.2 1031 15.6 9 0.00 551 527

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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 6 2018, 02:06 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 5 2018, 05:41 PM) *
I don't feel like I'm going out on a limb to say that this storm system will make multiple OHV posters happy, but there's other systems to focus on before then. This is a nice problem to have cool.gif

12z runs clearly show the potential in this time frame. Based on 12z GEFS total qpf, I've highlighted my projected heavy snow axis. There could be a coastal transfer that changes the heavy snow axis farther east.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Jan 6 2018, 02:09 PM
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 6 2018, 02:08 PM
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this cutter should be a big dent in the midwest/plains falling behind from a climatology standpoint
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RobB
post Jan 6 2018, 02:12 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 6 2018, 02:06 PM) *
12z runs clearly show the potential in this time frame. Based on 12z GEFS total qpf, I've highlighted my projected heavy snow axis. There could be a coastal transfer that changes the heavy snow axis farther east.


Grace would welcome that. He hasn't seen much of the white this season. I know he has had a couple big time thumps in recent seasons. Guess the laws of averages...
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 6 2018, 02:16 PM
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ECM doesnt offer snow map increments so ill post before cutter, after cutter, and after secondary
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NWOhioChaser
post Jan 6 2018, 02:18 PM
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This is bleeping rediculous. Toledo just broke the all time record number only days below 20* and a couple of storms pop up on the horizon and bam! Above freezing and mixed precip. Talk about wasted cold. Only good news about all of this is we've had a consistent snowpack for about 3 weeks IMBY. I'm ready for spring though. I have about one good storm left in me. Good meaning 4-6".
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Solution Man
post Jan 6 2018, 02:33 PM
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QUOTE(NWOhioChaser @ Jan 6 2018, 03:18 PM) *
This is bleeping rediculous. Toledo just broke the all time record number only days below 20* and a couple of storms pop up on the horizon and bam! Above freezing and mixed precip. Talk about wasted cold. Only good news about all of this is we've had a consistent snowpack for about 3 weeks IMBY. I'm ready for spring though. I have about one good storm left in me. Good meaning 4-6".

At least you have seen snow....could be worse you could live in the anti snow capital.....Kansas City sad.gif
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jasonus03
post Jan 6 2018, 02:47 PM
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QUOTE(Solution Man @ Jan 6 2018, 01:33 PM) *
At least you have seen snow....could be worse you could live in the anti snow capital.....Kansas City sad.gif


It's been a long time for many of us. The 2014-2015 season was the last time my area got a significant snow.

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Solution Man
post Jan 6 2018, 02:54 PM
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QUOTE(jasonus03 @ Jan 6 2018, 03:47 PM) *
It's been a long time for many of us. The 2014-2015 season was the last time my area got a significant snow.

Wow, blows my mind blink.gif We are way overdue. Thanks for sharing
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Ahoff
post Jan 6 2018, 02:58 PM
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QUOTE(jasonus03 @ Jan 6 2018, 02:47 PM) *
It's been a long time for many of us. The 2014-2015 season was the last time my area got a significant snow.


What storm produced a winter storm warning for Pittsburgh? 6 days ago? I don't even think they put a winter weather advisory on that storm. We got over 4", but no warning...at least I don't think.
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Ahoff
post Jan 6 2018, 02:58 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 6 2018, 02:06 PM) *
12z runs clearly show the potential in this time frame. Based on 12z GEFS total qpf, I've highlighted my projected heavy snow axis. There could be a coastal transfer that changes the heavy snow axis farther east.


Hope you're right, heavy snow would be heaven.
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RobB
post Jan 6 2018, 03:03 PM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ Jan 6 2018, 02:58 PM) *
What storm produced a winter storm warning for Pittsburgh? 6 days ago? I don't even think they put a winter weather advisory on that storm. We got over 4", but no warning...at least I don't think.



Perhaps there wasn't one for Pittsburgh itself, but the National Weather Service office area that Pittsburgh is part of, likely issued a warning to areas to your east...

Just guessing though..
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ValpoSnow
post Jan 6 2018, 03:28 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 6 2018, 02:03 PM) *
Perhaps there wasn't one for Pittsburgh itself, but the National Weather Service office area that Pittsburgh is part of, likely issued a warning to areas to your east...

Just guessing though..


Lake effect skews a lot of areas, too, btw.
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mulaman984
post Jan 6 2018, 03:35 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 6 2018, 02:12 PM) *
Grace would welcome that. He hasn't seen much of the white this season. I know he has had a couple big time thumps in recent seasons. Guess the laws of averages...


Yes - def happy for grace. Waiting on his afternoon comments...
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RobB
post Jan 6 2018, 04:13 PM
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ILN Longterm AFD

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An active weather pattern will be in place for the long term period.
At the start of the long term a system will be exiting the
area. Any remaining precipitation is expected to be light and
taper off early Monday night.

Dry conditions will then be present for the day on Tuesday, however
this will be short lived as a weak disturbance approaches Tuesday
night as moisture increases. Southerly flow will continue to bring
moisture into the region with off and on shower chances through
Wednesday night. This southerly flow will also allow for
temperatures to warm as well.

Precipitation chances increase as the day progresses on Thursday
into Thursday night as a frontal boundary approaches the area. This
boundary stalls near the area with disturbances working through
allowing for a potential prolonged precipitation event. Colder air
beings to move into the region Thursday night into Friday allowing
precipitation to change over to snow. Snow will then continue into
Saturday before beginning to taper off.
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mulaman984
post Jan 6 2018, 04:24 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 6 2018, 04:13 PM) *
ILN Longterm AFD


Most confident I’ve ever seen ILN re snow from this distance

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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 6 2018, 04:36 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 6 2018, 05:13 PM) *
ILN Longterm AFD


Interesting...ILN going with snow from late Thursday night/Fri. morning through Sat. - Surprised they worded it that way seeing as we are 5-6 days out.
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snowlover2
post Jan 6 2018, 05:13 PM
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18z GFS looking like a 3 part storm. Initial storm runs through the GLs and to this pont a second low popped up in eastern IN with the likely 3rd about to form down south shortly.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:4.5" 2/7/18

# of Winter Storm Watches:1

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 6 2018, 05:37 PM
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12z EPS track doesn't get much better (for here)

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cary67
post Jan 6 2018, 05:56 PM
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[quote name='jasonus03' date='Jan 6 2018, 01:47 PM' post='2279779']
It's been a long time for many of us. The 2014-2015 season was the last time my area got a significant snow.
[/quote
They should filter out the LES caused WSW for a clearer picture
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