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> January 14-17 Plains/MW/GL/OV Clipper, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
Juniorrr
post Jan 14 2018, 03:33 PM
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QUOTE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
328 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-051>053-060>062-150500-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0004.180115T0600Z-180116T0000Z/
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-
Logan-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta,
St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine, Troy, Piqua,
Tipp City, Urbana, Springfield, Eaton, Camden, Dayton, Kettering,
Beavercreek, Fairborn, and Xenia
328 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions,
including during the morning and evening commute on Monday.
Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central Indiana and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
Additional information can be found at www.weather.gov/iln as
well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages.

&&

$$

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N.Indianaweather
post Jan 14 2018, 03:34 PM
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WWA expand into Ohio Kentucky

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CIWeather
post Jan 14 2018, 03:35 PM
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Should see one from ILX in a bit...key word being should...


--------------------
2016-2017 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow:
First Snowflakes:
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 1/12/17
First Winter Storm Warning:
First Blizzard Watch/Warning:
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings:
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings:

2017 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks: 3
Enhanced Risks: 1
Moderate Risks: 1
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2016: 20-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 14 2018, 03:36 PM
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3km
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 14 2018, 03:39 PM
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to date snowfall tallys
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JimInCentralOhio
post Jan 14 2018, 03:40 PM
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Seems very likely you will get at least that.

QUOTE(NWOhioChaser @ Jan 14 2018, 03:28 PM) *
If Toledo doesn't get at least 1" tomorrow I give up on this winter.


This post has been edited by JimInCentralOhio: Jan 14 2018, 03:41 PM
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RobB
post Jan 14 2018, 03:47 PM
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QUOTE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
328 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ070>072-077-078-150500-
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0004.180115T0600Z-180116T0000Z/
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-
Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Butler-Warren-Clinton-
Hamilton-Clermont-
Including the cities of Brookville, Batesville, Milan,
Versailles, Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay, Carrollton,
Warsaw, Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger,
Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton, Williamstown,
Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Hamilton, Middletown,
Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro, Wilmington,
Blanchester, Cincinnati, and Milford
328 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions,
including during the morning and evening commute on Monday.
Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky and
Southwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
Additional information can be found at www.weather.gov/iln as
well as on our Facebook and Twitter pages.

&&

$$



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Juniorrr
post Jan 14 2018, 03:54 PM
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2-3" for Dayton and north counties, 1-3" for south counties into N KY.
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CIWeather
post Jan 14 2018, 04:01 PM
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WWA coming for all of Central IL from 9 tonight until noon tomorrow per ILX AFD...


--------------------
2016-2017 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow:
First Snowflakes:
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 1/12/17
First Winter Storm Warning:
First Blizzard Watch/Warning:
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings:
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings:

2017 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks: 3
Enhanced Risks: 1
Moderate Risks: 1
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2016: 20-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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RobB
post Jan 14 2018, 04:12 PM
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ILN AFD:

QUOTE
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Upper level energy digging into the northern Plains will push a
clipper system toward our region tonight. Models concur that a
lead s/wv over the central Plains will get pulled northeast
ahead of the main upper level low. This feature, along with some
isentropic lift, will produce an area of light snow, which will
push into the region from the west overnight. Snow amounts of a
half inch to an inch will be possible along and north of the
Ohio River and along and west of I-75. Farther northeast, light
snow will be reaching this area late. Temperatures will drop
this evening, then slowly rise as winds increases as winds pick
up and clouds thicken. Have allowed for a little colder
conditions east and south of Columbus as this radiates out
better before thicker clouds arrive.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models concur and forecast follows as such that the clipper
system will affect our region Monday into Monday night.

First wave of snow will be pivoting off to the northeast Monday
morning while the next wave will be poised to move west to east
ahead of an arctic cold front during the afternoon and evening.
This second wave of snow will be more dynamically driven. Given
the two waves of snow, snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches is
expected mainly along and north of I-70, with 1 to 3 inches
along and north of the Ohio to I-70. The far southeast should
receive between 1 and 2 inches. All in all, have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for the entire region. Temperatures will
rebound ahead of the arctic front, resulting in highs ranging
from the upper 20s northwest to the mid 30s far southeast.

For Monday night, as the arctic front pushes east and
southeast, snow will taper off. There is some differences in the
models as to how fast the snow will exist our far southeast.
Have allowed for gradual tapering off here, but this may have to
be tweaked with later forecast. Much colder air will filter
back into the region from the west overnight. Lows will range
from near 0 across east central Indiana to the lower teens far
southeast. These temperatures, combined with wind, will produce
wind chill values below zero for much of the region, with 5
below zero to 15 below zero possible for locations in the west.
A wind chill advisory will have to be considered with later
forecasts.
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CentralIllinois
post Jan 14 2018, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
315 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT...THEN BITTERLY COLD WIND-CHILLS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-150500-
/O.NEW.KILX.WW.Y.0003.180115T0300Z-180115T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KILX.WC.Y.0004.180116T0000Z-180116T1800Z/
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-
Schuyler-Mason-Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-
Menard-Scott-Morgan-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-
Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-
Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
Including the cities of Galesburg, Toulon, Peoria, Lacon, Eureka,
Canton, Pekin, Bloomington, Normal, Rushville, Havana, Lincoln,
Clinton, Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Beardstown,
Petersburg, Winchester, Jacksonville, Springfield, Taylorville,
Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris,
Shelbyville, Greenup, Marshall, Effingham, Newton, Robinson,
Flora, Olney, and Lawrenceville
315 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON CST MONDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and very cold wind chills expected.

* WHERE...All of central and southeast Illinois

* WHEN...A Winter Weather Advisory for snow is in effect from 9 PM
this evening to noon Monday. A Wind Chill Advisory is in effect
from 6 PM Monday to noon Tuesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Light to moderate snow will fall across the
area tonight into early Monday morning. Storm total snow
accumulations will be 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of
up to 4 inches north of I-74. Bitterly cold wind-chills will
develop in the wake of the system. Wind-chill values will bottom
out from 15 below to 20 below zero Monday night into Tuesday
morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained by
calling 1-800-452-4368.

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

Barnes


--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:10.1"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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Solution Man
post Jan 14 2018, 04:16 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 14 2018, 05:12 PM) *
ILN AFD:

Western half of Missouri now
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CentralIllinois
post Jan 14 2018, 04:19 PM
Post #233




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ILX
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--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:10.1"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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CIWeather
post Jan 14 2018, 04:22 PM
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QUOTE(CentralIllinois @ Jan 14 2018, 03:19 PM) *
ILX


That would be our biggest snow of the season laugh.gif


--------------------
2016-2017 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow:
First Snowflakes:
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 1/12/17
First Winter Storm Warning:
First Blizzard Watch/Warning:
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings:
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings:

2017 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks: 3
Enhanced Risks: 1
Moderate Risks: 1
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2016: 20-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 14 2018, 04:25 PM
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QUOTE(Solution Man @ Jan 14 2018, 04:16 PM) *
Western half of Missouri now

Now everywhere except for the LSX forecast area laugh.gif

Pittsburgh citing totals just below advisory criteria. I understand that the criteria are in place for a reason, but does 2" vs 3" of accumulating snow really make a difference in terms of impacts to traffic etc.?


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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RobB
post Jan 14 2018, 04:28 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 14 2018, 04:25 PM) *
Now everywhere except for the LSX forecast area laugh.gif

Pittsburgh citing totals just below advisory criteria. I understand that the criteria are in place for a reason, but does 2" vs 3" of accumulating snow really make a difference in terms of impacts to traffic etc.?



So much agree. Headlines are a bit overrated. An impact scale would be nice. I actually think a 1 inch snow can be worse than 3 plus as there isn't as much traction at times and the general populace are 'Meh' when it comes to that.
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CentralIllinois
post Jan 14 2018, 04:31 PM
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Local Met
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--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:10.1"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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bradjl2009
post Jan 14 2018, 04:31 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 14 2018, 04:25 PM) *
Now everywhere except for the LSX forecast area laugh.gif

Pittsburgh citing totals just below advisory criteria. I understand that the criteria are in place for a reason, but does 2" vs 3" of accumulating snow really make a difference in terms of impacts to traffic etc.?

Pittsburgh is pretty rigid about following their at least 3 inches policy for issuing an advisory. In a normal winter, Western PA sees a fair amount of 1-3 inch events and unless they come in the form of sudden squalls, they don't really cause much disruption IMO.

Looking at average annual snowfall, it does seem like Pittsburgh gets a bit more snow in a regular year compared to other cities further west at about the same latitude. Our totals for the season are more comparable to Chicago, Southern New England, and Detroit than Columbus and Indianapolis.

This post has been edited by bradjl2009: Jan 14 2018, 04:43 PM
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TheBlizzardOf197...
post Jan 14 2018, 04:42 PM
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Will this be virga, or will it just start snowing?
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 14 2018, 04:42 PM
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QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Jan 14 2018, 04:31 PM) *
Pittsburgh is pretty rigid about following their at least 3 inches policy for issuing an advisory. In a normal winter, Western PA sees a fair amount of 1-3 inch events and unless they come in the form of sudden squalls, they don't really cause much disruption IMO.

Looking at average annual snowfall, it does seem like Pittsburgh gets a bit more snow in a regular year compared to other cities further west at about the same latitude.

I don't dispute any of this, but what is so magical about 3" of snow that makes it worthy of a headline when 1-2" of snow makes roads just about as hazardous.

The semantics of winter weather headlines. Sounds like a topic worthy of investigation.

Edit: I guess it could come down to the effectiveness of salt on roads. Maybe one salt application can melt 2", but not 3". Even then it depends on the temperature and liquid content of snow.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Jan 14 2018, 04:44 PM


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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