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jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:34 PM


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QUOTE(TheBlizzardOf1978 @ Oct 18 2017, 04:35 PM) *
UPDATED ECMWF Ensemble Mean Snowfall forecast through December 1st. Change is for heavier snow amounts to move further south in the central Plains / Great Lakes / Northeast. I'm not really focusing on specifics here, because that can get you in trouble. I am looking at the big picture that is showing a much stormier colder November. Don't focus on snowfall amounts but the trend.

https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/pho...e=3&theater


Click me! Click me! Share me! Share me!

This is junk. Through a social media perspective, this won't be shared because people "not focused on specifics."

Heck...if I charted what that map gave me last year I should've became a plow driver! We know how that turned out!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249710 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 05:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(Boomer @ Oct 18 2017, 05:11 PM) *
I guess a better way to go about would be MJO events with high amplitude I suppose.


Here is the paper for your enjoyment. It's a matter of the pentad which the MJO is in, and obviously, how long it's there.

QUOTE
. A two-way interaction between the NAO and the
MJO is evident. A negative NAO leads phases 2 and 3
of the MJO by 3;5 pentads, whereas a positive NAO
precedes phases 6 and 7 by 2;5 pentads. On the other
hand, when the MJO leads the NAO, significant positive
NAOs are found for phases 2–4, and negative
NAOs for phases 6–8, indicating a significant influence
of the tropical MJO on the extratropical NAO variability.
On average, the NAO index is positive (negative)
5–15 days after the MJO is detected in phases 2–4
(phases 6–8). The magnitude of the composite NAO
index that is statistically significant at a 0.05 level ranges
from 0.25;0.41, implying that the amplitude of the
NAO associated with the MJO variability is about
25%;41% of its standard deviation in the extended
winter season.


Another "nugget" for MJO/ENSO/PNA/AO relationships...

QUOTE
Several of the resulting cluster patterns resemble linear combinations of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, but show even stronger responses to the MJO and ENSO than clusters based on the AO and PNA alone. A cluster resembling the positive (negative) PNA has elevated probabilities approximately 8–14 days following phase 6 (phase 3) of the MJO, while a negative AO-like cluster has elevated probabilities 10–20 days following phase 7 of the MJO.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249709 · Replies: · Views: 179,025

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:49 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,133
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(grace @ Oct 18 2017, 10:49 AM) *
Expect volatile pattern. No locking in warm or cold pattern right now


Yep...#organicforecasting methods foretold the volatile pattern.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249690 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

jdrenken
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:48 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,133
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(Boomer @ Oct 18 2017, 08:42 AM) *
Would be great to get some sustained blocking this year. We've been lucky the last several years to have a mostly -EPO to help us out with cold, but the arctic and north Atlantic situation has been pitiful. I see lots of people I trust thinking that we have a shot at some legit blocking this winter.


As I've posted before, pay attention to the MJO lag/lead when it comes to the NAO blocking.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249689 · Replies: · Views: 179,025

jdrenken
Posted on: Oct 17 2017, 07:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ILStormwatcher @ Oct 17 2017, 06:48 PM) *
Could we be looking at something similar to what happened in November 2013 where a ET system, blow up to like 917MB or something like that, and raised a huge ridge from Alaska down to the pacific west coast resulting in a massive early season cold wave across the eastern half of the nation? Something tells me we could, though it'll likely not be as dramatic. Time will tell.

Though given the 7 to 10 day lag period this won't happen until November 3rd to the 7th, and does not include the cool down for the eastern US in the 23rd to 29th time period. Likely a warm period between cool shots with the 30th to the 3rd possibly quite toasty.


That was Nuri in 2014 and one of our case studies.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249660 · Replies: · Views: 179,025

jdrenken
Posted on: Oct 15 2017, 12:45 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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Where Do We Go From Here?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249580 · Replies: · Views: 375,462

jdrenken
Posted on: Oct 15 2017, 11:59 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Oct 15 2017, 08:48 AM) *
Ensembles are showing a cool down at the end of the month. Operational models not on board yet but AO and NAO are going negative.


#organicforecasting has foretold this since late last month
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249579 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

jdrenken
Posted on: Oct 14 2017, 12:01 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,133
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(KDPPenmen @ Oct 13 2017, 09:27 PM) *
Henry Margusity saying that NAO going negative!



We've known about the MJO/NAO lag for almost 10 years...officially of course.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008JCLI2515.1

QUOTE
. A two-way interaction between the NAO and the
MJO is evident. A negative NAO leads phases 2 and 3
of the MJO by 3;5 pentads, whereas a positive NAO
precedes phases 6 and 7 by 2;5 pentads. On the other
hand, when the MJO leads the NAO, significant positive
NAOs are found for phases 24, and negative
NAOs for phases 68, indicating a significant influence
of the tropical MJO on the extratropical NAO variability.
On average, the NAO index is positive (negative)
515 days after the MJO is detected in phases 24
(phases 68). The magnitude of the composite NAO
index that is statistically significant at a 0.05 level ranges
from 0.25;0.41, implying that the amplitude of the
NAO associated with the MJO variability is about
25%;41% of its standard deviation in the extended
winter season.


Henry saying it's going negative is a Captain Obvious situation of course because anyone can see the chart you showed shows it.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249515 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

jdrenken
Posted on: Oct 12 2017, 06:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(grace @ Oct 12 2017, 05:38 PM) *


Make sure to pay attention to @weatherinthehud daily PDO research! wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249481 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

jdrenken
Posted on: Oct 11 2017, 10:19 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(Boomer @ Oct 11 2017, 08:05 AM) *
Not sold on this winter being BN temperature wise for DJF anywhere east of the rockies, but AN on precip looks almost like a slam dunk for most of the Ohio valley, great lakes, and interior Northeast.


What do you base this off of? Saying "anywhere East of the Rockies" is a very large area.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249445 · Replies: · Views: 179,025

jdrenken
Posted on: Oct 11 2017, 10:13 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 11 2017, 08:37 PM) *
GFS? Bias? Nahhhh laugh.gif



I will take this moment to remind everyone of my rule while looking at these specific graphics.

QUOTE
If the indicie is predicted to go high, go low. On the flip side, if it's predicted to be low, go high.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2249444 · Replies: · Views: 28,705

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 22 2017, 01:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Columbia, MO
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If this isn't telling I don't know what else to say...

NOUS42 KNHC 221427
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 22 SEPTEMBER 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE MARIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 73 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 23/2330Z A. 24/1130Z
B. AFXXX 1715A MARIA B. AFXXX 1815A MARIA
C. 23/1900Z C. 24/0715Z
D. 26.5N 72.3W D. 27.9N 72.3W
E. 23/2130Z TO 24/0030Z E. 24/0930Z TO 24/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES ONLY
IF NEEDED.

3. REMARKS:
A. P-3 MISSION FOR 23/0500Z CANCELED AT 21/18500Z.
B. THERE WILL BE P-3 RESEARCH MISSIONS TODAY, SATURDAY, AND
SUNDAY INTO MARIA DEPARTING AT 1700Z
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247967 · Replies: · Views: 187,609

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 17 2017, 04:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,133
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(stilko4 @ Sep 17 2017, 04:28 PM) *
For winds weaker then a winter nor Easter?


Fits the criteria does it not?

QUOTE
Tropical Storm Watch
An announcement that tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified coastal area within 48 hours.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246865 · Replies: · Views: 157,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 17 2017, 02:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,133
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE
AL, 15, 2017091718, , BEST, 0, 136N, 570W, 65, 986, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 60, 40, 60, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
AL, 15, 2017091718, , BEST, 0, 136N, 570W, 65, 986, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 20, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028,
AL, 15, 2017091718, , BEST, 0, 136N, 570W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 10, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 028
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246837 · Replies: · Views: 187,609

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 17 2017, 10:06 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,133
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


NAVGEM is just inside the BM also...

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246774 · Replies: · Views: 157,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 11:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,133
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Updated from South Florida Water Management website...

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246694 · Replies: · Views: 157,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 11:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,133
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


A major question to ask yourself...if the block is the NW, why on earth does Jose feel the need to ram straight into it instead of head to the weakness to it's NE?
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246691 · Replies: · Views: 157,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 08:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,133
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(USCG AST @ Sep 16 2017, 08:31 PM) *
Wow she's looking healthy


The big question is let's see how well she looks over Hispaniola.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246671 · Replies: · Views: 187,609

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 07:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,133
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Just one example...
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246664 · Replies: · Views: 157,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 07:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,133
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(TC1 @ Sep 16 2017, 06:29 PM) *
Am I to take it that you don't believe the 12z Euro is right in taking the storm as far west at it did?

Not a sarcastic or rhetorical question.


In a word...no. The euro has performed horribly with Jose and I'm supposed to believe how it has Jose and Maria do a complicated Fujiwhara dance?
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246663 · Replies: · Views: 157,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 05:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
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I will merely say that people should follow the rossby wave to figure out if the Euro is off it's rocker. ANYONE taking this run as gospel needs to look at the Euro history with Jose.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246656 · Replies: · Views: 157,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 12:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 38,133
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From: Columbia, MO
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QUOTE(ctdryslot @ Sep 16 2017, 11:18 AM) *
Starting to wonder what the benefit is of the GFS... Yes, it's fun to see different possibilities and impacts of different features, but it always seems to find its way back to the Euro. (I will see myself out before anyone starts throwing darts).

ph34r.gif


I am trying to find the stats that I saw earlier, but the GFS is scoring the highest in the 72hr window.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246627 · Replies: · Views: 157,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 12:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,133
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
200 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 51.6W
ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246626 · Replies: · Views: 187,609

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 12:21 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,133
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From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT FRI 15 SEPTEMBER 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-105

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
B. LOW LEVEL INVEST AT 17/1800Z NEAR 13.5N 56.5W.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246623 · Replies: · Views: 187,609

jdrenken
Posted on: Sep 16 2017, 12:15 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,133
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 50.5W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique and Guadeloupe.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches will likely be issued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 12.2 North, longitude 50.5 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A slower west-northwest
motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours. The
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and
could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Leeward
Islands.

Satellite images indicate that the disturbance has become better
organized, and it is expected to become a tropical cyclone later
today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within portions of Leeward
Islands by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15
inches across portions of the central and southern Leeward Islands
through Tuesday night. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to begin
affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2246622 · Replies: · Views: 187,609

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