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> Caribbean Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Phased Vort
post Oct 3 2017, 12:36 PM
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Clouds gathering down there in the Caribbean...



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DrewNola
post Oct 3 2017, 12:58 PM
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1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
development, and this system could become a tropical depression
within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward
across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into
the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this
system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central
America during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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risingriver
post Oct 3 2017, 01:09 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 3 2017, 01:36 PM) *
Clouds gathering down there in the Caribbean...



Definitely appears to be some twist to the clouds off Nicaragua. If that moves north and stays over water the situation may get interesting quickly.

There appears to be a decent amount of shear in the path from cloud motion on the loop, as they are moving east to west jsut north of the flair up, and more so up in the Gulf. Most of our storms this year though have seemed to be somewhat shear resistant unless the wind speeds were over 30Kts of shear.

I really enjoyed the break but it looks like we'll have something to track all to soon again, and in an area where a landfall is practically inevitable for someone.
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Ron in Miami
post Oct 3 2017, 01:20 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Oct 3 2017, 02:09 PM) *
Definitely appears to be some twist to the clouds off Nicaragua. If that moves north and stays over water the situation may get interesting quickly.

There appears to be a decent amount of shear in the path from cloud motion on the loop, as they are moving east to west jsut north of the flair up, and more so up in the Gulf. Most of our storms this year though have seemed to be somewhat shear resistant unless the wind speeds were over 30Kts of shear.

I really enjoyed the break but it looks like we'll have something to track all to soon again, and in an area where a landfall is practically inevitable for someone.


NHC activated 90L so I started a new thread. GFS runs recently show this as a gulf coast threat so everyone from TX to FL should be monitoring this one.


This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Oct 3 2017, 01:22 PM
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Phased Vort
post Oct 3 2017, 01:31 PM
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12Z ECMWF is really focusing on the system that will arise from the Caribbean and then track into the GOMEX.

Looks like this one may be future Nate.


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SnowMan11
post Oct 10 2017, 08:28 AM
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GFS has a weaker version of Sandy ( track wise ) in weenie range

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SnowMan11
post Oct 10 2017, 08:29 AM
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Weenie land
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MaineJay
post Oct 20 2017, 04:49 AM
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Need to watch the end of the month/beginning of November. The MJO will likely lose a lot of amplitude over the cool waters of the east Pacific, but need to be wary of the wind fields that'll be moving into the Caribbean in a week or two. Might as a little flurry of activity to cap off a crazy tropical season.

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5-10 day genesis probabilities.
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Phased Vort
post Oct 21 2017, 04:10 PM
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Agreed MaineJay.

The western Caribbean is the place to watch for tropical development during the first half of November.


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MaineJay
post Oct 21 2017, 05:34 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Oct 21 2017, 05:10 PM) *
Agreed MaineJay.

The western Caribbean is the place to watch for tropical development during the first half of November.



ECMWF fantasy land
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MaineJay
post Oct 22 2017, 06:49 AM
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ECMWF hour 240. Emphasis on the ten days out.

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DrewNola
post Oct 23 2017, 08:40 AM
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Good Morning, any update on this, it's 40% , how viable do y'all think this could be?
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Ron in Miami
post Oct 23 2017, 03:16 PM
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QUOTE(DrewNola @ Oct 23 2017, 09:40 AM) *
Good Morning, any update on this, it's 40% , how viable do y'all think this could be?


GFS has been hinting at this for the last week + now, since it's still showing it within the 120-150hr time frame the NHC is showing it some love. I have seen many funky runs for this one, from wrong way Lenny's to over Cuba & DR, some had PR and even FL hits. GFS has been all over the place on this one lol...
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Phased Vort
post Nov 1 2017, 12:48 PM
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I think that before the Hurricane season is over on Nov 30th, one more tropical cyclone can form in the central or western Caribbean, possibly a hurricane, 15 to 20 days from now.


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